AK-Hellenthal (R): Begich +10
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  AK-Hellenthal (R): Begich +10
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Author Topic: AK-Hellenthal (R): Begich +10  (Read 8397 times)
Donerail
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« on: October 24, 2014, 04:58:23 PM »

Dominating.

Begich 49, Sullivan 39.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2014, 04:59:36 PM »

BOOM!

Looks like Begich's got this one wrapped up.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2014, 05:01:13 PM »

What? Is that good news I hear?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2014, 05:01:29 PM »

Mmmmhmmmm!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2014, 05:03:12 PM »

lol, what

What is this pollster's track record? I'm getting reminders of that "Democratic pollster" showing Romney ahead by 20 points in Florida.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2014, 05:03:25 PM »

Dominating. I can't wait until election night, it's going to be great to throw shade over the results.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2014, 05:04:45 PM »

It has Parnell leading Walker narrowly, too.

I think Hellenthal may be the new gold standard for polling!
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NerdyBohemian
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2014, 05:06:03 PM »

I want to believe this, but no one is winning this race by 10 points in November.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2014, 05:06:24 PM »

Between this, MA Gov, and IA Sen I just want to pound my head on a slab of concrete.
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2014, 05:07:59 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2014, 05:08:45 PM »

It will a 51-48-3 dem senate we win CO and IA and La and AK give us majority.
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Donerail
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2014, 05:10:57 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2014, 09:44:21 AM by SJoyce »

lol, what

What is this pollster's track record? I'm getting reminders of that "Democratic pollster" showing Romney ahead by 20 points in Florida.

The difference between this and other Alaska polls is that it's 400 live interviews and 80% of those are cell phones, which is probably fair - 49% of Alaskans rely exclusively on their cell phones, after all. I doubt it's +10, but anywhere from a marginal Begich edge (like half a point) to even +5 Begich is where I think the race'll end up.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2014, 05:17:56 PM »

lol republicans on this forum are gonna look so dumb when the race in Alaska is called for Begich when polls close
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2014, 05:19:11 PM »

Alaska Poll = throw it in the trash.

I'd be shocked if this poll was accurate, but I expect anything from a solid (5 at most) single digit win from Begich to a double digit win for Sullivan.
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Miles
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2014, 05:37:04 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2014, 05:40:00 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2014, 05:41:32 PM by Gass3268 »

403 is not a lot of respondents for a poll, hence the large MOE at 4.88%. 800 is usually the magic number. Then again Alaska has such a small population, who knows.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2014, 05:42:47 PM »


Pollster stands by his poll? Shocked

And in what world does a ground game give someone a large poll lead? It would explain a candidate outperforming poll numbers, sure, but it doesn't dictate the results.

But I think I know what this pollste(R) is doing... Smiley
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morgieb
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2014, 05:47:23 PM »

As much as I'd like to believe it, this is trash.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2014, 05:48:27 PM »

Lol - you guys are unbelievable.

A poll shows Brown up 1 in NH? Throw it in the trash.
A poll shows Begich up 10 (?!?) in Alaska? MUST BE GOOD,DEMS GUNNA KEEP THE SENATE

Alaska polling "can't be trusted" unless it yields great news for the Democrats.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2014, 05:50:14 PM »

Hahaha what?
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bedstuy
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2014, 05:52:38 PM »

Lol - you guys are unbelievable.

A poll shows Brown up 1 in NH? Throw it in the trash.
A poll shows Begich up 10 (?!?) in Alaska? MUST BE GOOD,DEMS GUNNA KEEP THE SENATE

Alaska polling "can't be trusted" unless it yields great news for the Democrats.

Did anyone say they believed this poll was accurate?  

This is clearly a giant outlier, even regardless of pollster reputation or any other factor, it should be ignored for that reason alone.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2014, 05:57:21 PM »

Lol - you guys are unbelievable.

A poll shows Brown up 1 in NH? Throw it in the trash.
A poll shows Begich up 10 (?!?) in Alaska? MUST BE GOOD,DEMS GUNNA KEEP THE SENATE

Alaska polling "can't be trusted" unless it yields great news for the Democrats.

Did anyone say they believed this poll was accurate?  

This is clearly a giant outlier, even regardless of pollster reputation or any other factor, it should be ignored for that reason alone.

Well, Dr. Scholl, Lief, and OC all seem to take the poll as accurate to an extent.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2014, 05:58:06 PM »

lol, what

What is this pollster's track record? I'm getting reminders of that "Democratic pollster" showing Romney ahead by 20 points in Florida.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2014, 05:59:35 PM »

Republican firms don't typically put Democrats up by ten, so it's very telling. It might not end up being accurate, but it's always worth noting when a Republican pollster puts a Democrats up by this much.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2014, 06:01:47 PM »

Lol - you guys are unbelievable.

A poll shows Brown up 1 in NH? Throw it in the trash.
A poll shows Begich up 10 (?!?) in Alaska? MUST BE GOOD,DEMS GUNNA KEEP THE SENATE

Alaska polling "can't be trusted" unless it yields great news for the Democrats.

What thread are you reading? Most people here have expressed skepticism.

On the other hand, you have Krazen literally touting the results of Gravis polls.
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