GA: Insider Advantage: Nunn +2
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Author Topic: GA: Insider Advantage: Nunn +2  (Read 2704 times)
Miles
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« on: October 23, 2014, 11:43:28 AM »
« edited: October 23, 2014, 11:46:33 AM by Miles »

Article.

Nunn (D)- 47%
Perdue (R)- 45%
Swafford (L)- 4%
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2014, 11:43:59 AM »

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Mehmentum
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2014, 11:50:33 AM »

With 4% undecided, she'd need to win 3/4 of the undecided voters to get 50%.
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retromike22
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2014, 11:53:02 AM »

I'm going to be pissed if Nunn gets 49.99% on election day and then loses the runoff.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2014, 12:10:39 PM »

I think this 1) shows Georgia is changing but 2) more importantly shows that the right kind of centrist Democrat (the kind the red avatars on this board will be frustrated with once they reach DC) can still win in the South.  I actually think Nunn pulls this out; her dad was a legend.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2014, 12:12:10 PM »

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Recalcuate
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2014, 12:17:30 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2014, 12:27:05 PM by Recalcuate »

With 4% undecided, she'd need to win 3/4 of the undecided voters to get 50%.

There's probably an extra point there with the Libertarian at 4%. Usually L candidates in GA end up in the 2-3% range. Some of that support would likely align more with the Republican (at least traditionally).

You're talking small percentage points here, but it would matter in a race that close where you are trying to avoid a runoff.

However, the race is definitely slightly leaning Nunn at this point. At 47 though, you'd probably be seeing a runoff. She probably needs a 3-4 point lead in these polls to get to 50% + 1.
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Matty
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2014, 12:22:35 PM »

I don' think this is so much about changing demographics in the state as it is Nunn being a totally different democrat than the national party.
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Ryan in Iowa
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2014, 12:48:14 PM »

I don' think this is so much about changing demographics in the state as it is Nunn being a totally different democrat than the national party.

Demos are changing slightly in GA like they did in North Carolina & VA, just not as fast.

However, I agree with you that Nunn is a strong candidate with a positive last name and probably outperforming.

Perdue seems like a bad candidate also. I would think he outsourcing comment is hurting him a few % points.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2014, 01:05:22 PM »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is the first Insider Advantage poll showing Nunn with a lead?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2014, 01:20:12 PM »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is the first Insider Advantage poll showing Nunn with a lead?
Yes. And this year, they've been, on average, slightly more republican than other GA polls....
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user12345
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2014, 01:56:02 PM »

I'm going to be pissed if Nunn gets 49.99% on election day and then loses the runoff.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2014, 02:36:00 PM »

I'm going to be pissed if Nunn gets 49.99% on election day and then loses the runoff.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2014, 02:47:09 PM »


There's a 95% chance that will happen.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2014, 04:54:57 PM »

I think she'll get to a runoff. They'll both get under 50% and the real race will be 2 months away.

But damn, this turned into a toss-up pretty quick.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2014, 07:19:14 PM »

Been telling the haters for years...


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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2014, 07:24:26 PM »

This seems like it might be the lone Senate race where there has been D improvement recently. Still out to lunch on SD.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2014, 09:33:41 PM »

If Perdue didn't mess up so much (terriorist ad, outsourcing), he might still have the 5 to 6 point leads he had in September. Perdue's not a bad candidate, he just doesn't know how to campaign.

The republicans probably should have nominated Kingston. Maybe even Handel.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2014, 11:42:00 PM »


I agree with you that Nunn will pull it out, but your reasoning will be that GA is turning into the next IL or NY with the metro area - in all its cosmopolitan sophistication Tongue - provides the margin of victory.  But I think it's simply that Nunn is a centrist Democrat with a famous last name, and those Democrats can absolutely still win in the South, even the Old South.  As soon as Obama leaves office, it'll be even easier.
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Miles
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2014, 12:00:02 AM »

If Perdue didn't mess up so much (terriorist ad, outsourcing), he might still have the 5 to 6 point leads he had in September. Perdue's not a bad candidate, he just doesn't know how to campaign.

The republicans probably should have nominated Kingston. Maybe even Handel.

While Perdue isn't a good campaigner, I think Nunn would be in a somewhat stronger position had Kingston been nominated. Handel might have been a slightly better pick than Perdue or Kingston, but that could just be my strong bias for Handel.

Why? I gotta agree with Kondik here.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2014, 12:20:15 AM »

Getting votes from ancestral Democrats in Middle and South Georgia is key to Nunn getting those last few points, and Kingston could have made that difficult for Nunn.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2014, 01:16:09 AM »

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Chance92
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2014, 01:17:52 AM »

I still fear the runoff.
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Grumpier Than Thou
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2014, 10:28:39 AM »

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