Liberals polling lowest in 17 years

[Hatman 🍁]

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 25%
NDP 21%
BQ 13% (48% in Quebec)
Greens 5%

http://www.canadawebpages.com/pc-editorial.asp?Key=1531&editorPrimeKeyword=poll&editorType=news

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An EKOS poll as well... Good Lord... maybe Canada's strange habit (in a multi-party country) of having a liberal party larger than it's socialist party is about to end. Probably not, but hey; I can always dream.

Btw, have you noticed that Layton looks a bit like Ramsey MacDonald?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Will the election be this autumn or this winter?  The only reason I see for the Conservatives to wait would be to try regaining some ground in Quebec from the Bloc before forcing a vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Will the election be this autumn or this winter?  The only reason I see for the Conservatives to wait would be to try regaining some ground in Quebec from the Bloc before forcing a vote.

The election could happen at any time, people are making speculations, and there's always the random non-confidence vote. Now would be a good time for the Conservative to try and do it, so we could have an election later on this spring.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By-election in Labrador has to be called soon...

[Hatman 🍁]

An EKOS poll as well... Good Lord... maybe Canada's strange habit (in a multi-party country) of having a liberal party larger than it's socialist party is about to end. Probably not, but hey; I can always dream.

Btw, have you noticed that Layton looks a bit like Ramsey MacDonald?

Yeah, I don't think the NDP has much of a good chance. People are morse scared of them then the Conservatives. A good reason why the Liberals keep on getting elected, and why when we get tired of them we go to the right instead of the left.  In Ontario, Canada's most populous province we "accidentaly" elected an NDP provincial government in 1990 and they turned out to be what you Brits call "New Labour".  It was around this time (1988) that was the only time the NDP led nationally in the polls. Unfortunately, they could not hold it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, I don't think the NDP has much of a good chance. People are morse scared of them then the Conservatives. A good reason why the Liberals keep on getting elected, and why when we get tired of them we go to the right instead of the left.

The main problems are fiscal responsibility... and have been since the party was formed in the '60's.

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Rae was elected because the NDP seemed a safe option due to him being very much a moderate (in that respect he predated New Labour and I'm pretty sure he influenced some people involved in it) and just not being that like that arrogrant prick of a premier (Peterson IIRC).
What he did wrong (and why it's taken until about now for the Ontario NDP to rebuild in some areas) was to introduce anti-union legislation (the social contract it was called IIRC) which at a stroke sent the NDP's base packing often, ironically, the the Harris Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I don't think the NDP has much of a good chance. People are morse scared of them then the Conservatives. A good reason why the Liberals keep on getting elected, and why when we get tired of them we go to the right instead of the left.

The main problems are fiscal responsibility... and have been since the party was formed in the '60's.

Yes, that's what I meant. People are scared of the NDP because they believe they are fiscially irresponsible.  Although, they seem to be doing a fine job in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

In Ontario, Canada's most populous province we "accidentaly" elected an NDP provincial government in 1990 and they turned out to be what you Brits call "New Labour".  It was around this time (1988) that was the only time the NDP led nationally in the polls. Unfortunately, they could not hold it.

Rae was elected because the NDP seemed a safe option due to him being very much a moderate (in that respect he predated New Labour and I'm pretty sure he influenced some people involved in it) and just not being that like that arrogrant prick of a premier (Peterson IIRC).
What he did wrong (and why it's taken until about now for the Ontario NDP to rebuild in some areas) was to introduce anti-union legislation (the social contract it was called IIRC) which at a stroke sent the NDP's base packing often, ironically, the the Harris Tories.

The NDP still hasn't rebuilt here, and will take a long time before they do. First, they have to get rid of their leader, and get a new one who wasn't an MPP during the Rae years. Now is a good time, because of the unpopularity of the Liberals and people being wary of the tories because of what Harris has done.  However, it may just be too soon.

[Notre Dame rules!]

The poll looks encouraging, but I'm not going to get my hopes up.  The last time around the Conservatives appeared to be close to an outright majority, then faded just before the election.

[2952-0-0]

The poll looks encouraging, but I'm not going to get my hopes up.  The last time around the Conservatives appeared to be close to an outright majority, then faded just before the election.

They were going well but their party is just full of extremists who accuse the other parties of "supporting" child porn and saying "oh to heck with the courts". Mind you, the Liberals were no better. Ambushing your opponents' campaign rallies is the lowest tactic in the political world yet.

[Beet]

Isn't some blogger in Minnesota about to explode the government?

[Gabu]

Given that that poll was done only days after the press was allowed to report on the big scandal in the Gomery inquiry, it's hard to make a call one way or another regarding what it means.  If it sticks, the Liberals are in big trouble.  If it cools down after a while, the Liberals may be able to hold on.

Either way, however, the Liberals are probably not going to gain a majority for quite a while to come unless some new testimony comes up that completely destroys what Brault has said.

I've been sorta contemplating over the thought that maybe the Liberals need a time-out in the corner, but then I think that that would mean electing a Conservative government - the NDP is not going to win, like it or not - and then I'm not so sure.  My personal view on it is that all eyes are now on the Liberals and they sure as hell are not going to pull absolutely anything for quite some time if they remain in power, so it may not be a bad idea to let them keep going as long as they know that if they do absolutely anything funny, they're gone.

[Hatman 🍁]

If I were the Conservatives, this would be a good time to force a non-confidence vote. What do you think? is this foolish?

[Gabu]

If I were the Conservatives, this would be a good time to force a non-confidence vote. What do you think? is this foolish?

No, I think it would be a good idea, really.  From a purely objective point of view, this would be a very good excuse to bring down the government and force an election, and Harper is not likely to have the Liberals much lower in the polls than they currently are right now.  If Harper waits, my personal prediction would be that people will slowly start to forget about this mess and that the Liberals will slowly go back up.

Don't tell him I said so, however.

[Beet]

If I were the Conservatives, this would be a good time to force a non-confidence vote. What do you think? is this foolish?

No, I think it would be a good idea, really.  From a purely objective point of view, this would be a very good excuse to bring down the government and force an election, and Harper is not likely to have the Liberals much lower in the polls than they currently are right now.  If Harper waits, my personal prediction would be that people will slowly start to forget about this mess and that the Liberals will slowly go back up.

Don't tell him I said so, however.

Can Harper force a vote without support from the Bloc? It seems the Quebecois should be quite happy with their showing last year and wouldn't be too eager to force another election as they have very little to gain.

[Gabu]

If I were the Conservatives, this would be a good time to force a non-confidence vote. What do you think? is this foolish?

No, I think it would be a good idea, really.  From a purely objective point of view, this would be a very good excuse to bring down the government and force an election, and Harper is not likely to have the Liberals much lower in the polls than they currently are right now.  If Harper waits, my personal prediction would be that people will slowly start to forget about this mess and that the Liberals will slowly go back up.

Don't tell him I said so, however.

Can Harper force a vote without support from the Bloc? It seems the Quebecois should be quite happy with their showing last year and wouldn't be too eager to force another election as they have very little to gain.

I'm not sure.  If I recall correctly, Gilles Duceppe has been very coy in his complete non-answers that he's been giving in response to the question, "Would you support toppling Martin's government?"  It basically depends on which they value more: making Martin pay, which they certainly would enjoy*, or keeping their current numbers in Parliament, which also would likely be important to them.

*Interestingly enough, given that the Bloq is a left-wing party, it would not be in their own interest to usher in a conservative government, but then again, this is assuming that the separatists are logical and rational.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the Bloc cares more about Quebec's interests than social issues. I heard that the Bloc will attempt to force a non-confidence vote very soon, although it will fail as Harper has stated he wont let Separatists dictate when our elections will be.  Quite foolish, if you ask me.  The Conservatives need the Bloc and visa versa in order to topple the government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, that's what I meant. People are scared of the NDP because they believe they are fiscially irresponsible.  Although, they seem to be doing a fine job in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

True. They need to parachute some provincial Dippers from both provinces into winnable seats (and due to the freak result in Saskatchewan last time there's a lot of Reformatory M.P's with tiny majorities...)

The NDP still hasn't rebuilt here, and will take a long time before they do. First, they have to get rid of their leader, and get a new one who wasn't an MPP during the Rae years. Now is a good time, because of the unpopularity of the Liberals and people being wary of the tories because of what Harris has done.  However, it may just be too soon.

I don't mean rebuild as in get back to where they were when Rae was leader (that could take a while...) I mean getting back up to their more traditional levels of support.

[2952-0-0]

If things go much worse we will see an election in the fall and the Tories get a minority govt. They will NOT under any scenario get a majority because they can't appeal to Quebec voters. Right-wing voters there are more PC types and they lost their only seat in Quebec to the Liberals. Then we see a hung parliament and god knows what goes next.

[Hatman 🍁]

If things go much worse we will see an election in the fall and the Tories get a minority govt. They will NOT under any scenario get a majority because they can't appeal to Quebec voters. Right-wing voters there are more PC types and they lost their only seat in Quebec to the Liberals. Then we see a hung parliament and god knows what goes next.

Do you think a spring vote is out of the question?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd like a Canadian election a month or so after the U.K one

[A18]

This is why parliamentary systems suck. No stability. I like to know when our elections are held.

[Gabu]

This is why parliamentary systems suck. No stability. I like to know when our elections are held.

If a majority government takes hold, then it's the standard four years - this stuff only comes up when it's a minority government.  If you had three major political parties instead of two, you'd probably have the same problems we do.

[A18]

This is why parliamentary systems suck. No stability. I like to know when our elections are held.

If a majority government takes hold, then it's the standard four years - this stuff only comes up when it's a minority government.  If you had three major political parties instead of two, you'd probably have the same problems we do.

No, because our president is elected separately, and thus, there's no need for the Congress to get along in order to govern.

Not much will get done, but we've had deadlock all the time, and we never fail to get a budget passed or anything.

By the way, can anyone veto your laws?

[Gabu]

No, because our president is elected separately

Yes, by the House, if all parties had roughly equal support.  What if the House didn't have a majority and couldn't agree on which president they wanted?

I actually don't know the answer to that question, so it's for my own interest, as well.