CO: PPP says Gardner+3

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is looking pretty bad. If anything, the approval rating is the killer here. In mid-terms, turnout is everything, weak approvals suggests that you might have significant problems getting your voters out, let alone swing voters.

I think this one will go down to the wire regardless. I still hold that if the Dem is down by 3 or less on election day, they'll probably win. We'll see how the remaining polling goes.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Udall will still win because Bennett did, obviously. Likely D.

Gardner will win because Reagan took the state by 24 points 1980 and 28 points 1984. Safe R. /sarcasm

How does the SEC disclaimer go on publicly released 10-Ks? Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results?

I have a hard time pollsters haven't learned from their previous mistakes. If it quacks like Gardner +3 generally across the board, it's Gardner's race to lose right now. Tossup/Slight Lean R.

Most pollsters continue to have troublesome methodologies, it's a far more inexact 'science' than people realise. Most do OK and generally get it right in the end. But most of us have been around for a enough elections and CO is notorious for underpolling the Democrat, sometimes by a lot. So, at least I'm sticking by my personal view that if Udall is 3% behind or less, based on polling, he'll probably just scrape in. If that margin remains 3%+, then he'll probably lose.