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  CO: PPP says Gardner+3
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Author Topic: CO: PPP says Gardner+3  (Read 3725 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 21, 2014, 07:39:31 am »

46-43-5-7 Gardner/Udall

http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2014/10/21/democratic-poll-shows-udall-behind-senate-race/114273
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2014, 07:44:14 am »

They didn't push leaners? Both men lost ground (-1 CG, -2 MU) from last time.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2014, 08:09:34 am »

Here comes the boom.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2014, 08:09:44 am »

It seems Colorado is experiencing a miniature 1994
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2014, 08:10:12 am »

I think I'm finally going to have to give this one to Gardner.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2014, 08:11:30 am »

Yeah, this one is over. Stick a fork in Udall.
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2014, 08:12:32 am »

Very bad for Udall:

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2014, 08:21:34 am »

Yeah, this one is over. Stick a fork in Udall.

Wouldn't go that far. I definitely see this one as being "too close to call" on election night. But the fact that he has trailed in basically every major poll for a while now is worrisome.

The Gardner campaign seems to have taken complete control of the campaign's narrative these past few weeks.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2014, 08:33:50 am »

Sabato has this race clearly as tossup not leans GOP. I am not conceding this race becausr it is PPP. Udall is still in it and mau even be in a bettrr position than Begich who trails by fivr.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2014, 08:36:31 am »

Very bad for Udall:

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It didn't help that Udall said he was "brain-dead" and couldn't remember more than one book he read that had an impact on his life and then asked to re-tape the interview.

You'd think that would be Candidate School 101 nowadays. Seems like it's Gardner's race to lose at this point.
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ModerateVAVoter
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2014, 08:36:47 am »
« Edited: October 21, 2014, 08:40:27 am by ModerateVAVoter »

OC, Sabato also has Kentucky as Likely R, and you keep insisting Grimes is going to win.

I'm not saying we should treat Sabato's rankings at doctrine, nor am I saying Udall is finished, but let's try and be consistent.
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Chance92
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2014, 08:42:08 am »

Ahaha, that's really not good.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2014, 08:53:38 am »

Udall clearly had a bump in the road, its not the end of road. He is in a better position to win because of Hick, than Begich, who trails by five. 
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Everything Burns...
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2014, 09:02:21 am »

It seems Colorado is experiencing a miniature 1994

No, Hickenlooper should eek out a win and we'll almost certainly keep the state house and probably the state senate.  Despite the poll, I think we'll also narrowly pickup the Secretary of State's office, especially with Campbell on the ballot (even if she's overpolling, she's only taking votes away from Williams).  Coloradans can correct me if I'm wrong, but I've heard Neguse has run a very strong campaign and is considered a top-tier recruit whereas Williams is considered a pretty "meh" candidate at best.  The Treasurer's race seems more competitive than I expected since I've never been very impressed by Markey, but it looks like she could win (although my gut still says she'll do worse than Neguse).  The AG race is disappointing because Quick seemed like a really strong candidate on paper, but I've heard Coffman proved stronger than expected and this always struck me as a race tied to the national mood...oh well Sad Udall has simply run an awful campaign while Gardner ran a better campaign than any other Republican Senate candidate (including incumbents).

TL; DR: Yes, we're facing some backlash here from the gun stuff, but this is hardly a 1994-type situation (if you want to see what that would look like, watch the results in Ohio).  Even Udall would've probably won had he run an average-quality campaign.  This will be pretty rough, but it isn't 1994 level-bad.  If it was, Hickenlooper would probably be doing worse than Udall (given that he's probably about as hated by Colorado Republicans as Barack Obama).
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2014, 09:21:55 am »

Here's the full poll. Gardner leads 47/44 with leaners.
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Never
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2014, 09:33:19 am »

I love this news! I suppose Gardner definitely has at least some edge.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2014, 09:38:38 am »

Seems like an interestingly high number of undecideds, but nevertheless, this is good news.
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Impeachment Inquiry
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2014, 09:55:29 am »

I'm going to stick to my prediction that Udall wins. On election day, I have to imagine that Udall carries women by more than 4%. Turnout counts, and Democrats do more ground work than Republicans. I can't tell you how many Republicans think groundwork is silly.
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backtored
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« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2014, 10:02:00 am »

It seems Colorado is experiencing a miniature 1994

No, Hickenlooper should eek out a win and we'll almost certainly keep the state house and probably the state senate.  Despite the poll, I think we'll also narrowly pickup the Secretary of State's office, especially with Campbell on the ballot (even if she's overpolling, she's only taking votes away from Williams).  Coloradans can correct me if I'm wrong, but I've heard Neguse has run a very strong campaign and is considered a top-tier recruit whereas Williams is considered a pretty "meh" candidate at best.  The Treasurer's race seems more competitive than I expected since I've never been very impressed by Markey, but it looks like she could win (although my gut still says she'll do worse than Neguse).  The AG race is disappointing because Quick seemed like a really strong candidate on paper, but I've heard Coffman proved stronger than expected and this always struck me as a race tied to the national mood...oh well Sad Udall has simply run an awful campaign while Gardner ran a better campaign than any other Republican Senate candidate (including incumbents).

TL; DR: Yes, we're facing some backlash here from the gun stuff, but this is hardly a 1994-type situation (if you want to see what that would look like, watch the results in Ohio).  Even Udall would've probably won had he run an average-quality campaign.  This will be pretty rough, but it isn't 1994 level-bad.  If it was, Hickenlooper would probably be doing worse than Udall (given that he's probably about as hated by Colorado Republicans as Barack Obama).

Democrats will likely lose the state senate and the state house is in play, although Democrats should hold it, albeit by a small margin. Hick tied, and that is assuming a decent Democratic turnout. If the GOP backlash or turnout is just a little stronger than the polling, then the GOP will sweep all statewide races.
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backtored
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« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2014, 10:05:34 am »

The GOP leads by eight in the generic legislative ballot. That is....amazing. They actually might sweep the legislature with a boost like that.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2014, 10:23:38 am »

RIP Udall. Almost as sad as when Feingold lost. Sad
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R2D2 (Compulsive Hand Washing Edition)
20RP12
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« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2014, 10:46:08 am »

Very bad for Udall:

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Jesus Christ.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2014, 11:18:22 am »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2014-10-19

Summary: D: 43%, R: 46%, I: 5%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2014, 12:10:36 pm »

Well, sh*t.
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King
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« Reply #24 on: October 21, 2014, 12:14:43 pm »
« Edited: October 21, 2014, 12:16:36 pm by King »

The pundit in me just can't see a Udall going down unceremoniously in Colorado. The pollster in me acknowledges it's not looking good. Considering Hickenlooper and the almighty Colorado Brewer interests are also trying to pack this thing, it would not surprise me to see a Quinn/Reid 2010 thing happen here.

Or hell, the final RCP average for Bennet-Buck was Buck+3.
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