MN-SUSA: Dayton +10
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  MN-SUSA: Dayton +10
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Author Topic: MN-SUSA: Dayton +10  (Read 1479 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
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« on: October 19, 2014, 10:30:14 PM »

https://twitter.com/5hauser/status/524034041561890817

Dayton 50
Johnson 40
Other 6
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Vosem
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2014, 10:40:05 PM »

Right in line with other polling...seems to give credence to the earlier poll showing Mills up 8.
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KCDem
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2014, 10:51:25 PM »

Right in line with other polling...seems to give credence to the earlier poll showing Mills up 8.

Polling a house race vs. a statewide race are very different animals. See: Siena's track record in NY in house polls vs. statewide.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2014, 10:56:48 PM »

It's interesting that even though multiple Senate races have soured for Dems in the past few weeks, the gubernatorial races really haven't.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2014, 12:36:46 AM »

It's interesting that even though multiple Senate races have soured for Dems in the past few weeks, the gubernatorial races really haven't.
Well, to be fair, if this was suddenly truly competitive (within 5 points), it would almost certainly indicate a HUGE nationwide R wave - probably including Gillespie coming within five points.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2014, 12:40:30 AM »

I feel like undecideds break for Johnson, but just barely, to the point where Dayton is robbed of a double digit win. We'll see though.
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2014, 03:44:08 AM »

It's interesting that even though multiple Senate races have soured for Dems in the past few weeks, the gubernatorial races really haven't.

Most of the souring for Senate races was in hardcore Republican states. That's where most of the competitive Senate seats are.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2014, 11:18:48 AM »

Dominating
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2014, 12:46:46 PM »

Worth noting that Dayton way overpolled last time.  He led +5.2 in the RCP average and won by +0.5.  I don't know if this was just a fluke, but it's worth considering.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2014, 12:57:55 PM »

It's interesting that even though multiple Senate races have soured for Dems in the past few weeks, the gubernatorial races really haven't.

Most of the souring for Senate races was in hardcore Republican states. That's where most of the competitive Senate seats are.

Not Colorado and Iowa.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2014, 03:59:38 PM »

Worth noting that Dayton way overpolled last time.  He led +5.2 in the RCP average and won by +0.5.  I don't know if this was just a fluke, but it's worth considering.

I suspect that's because of a lack of enthusiasm for Dayton due to his terrible record in the Senate and the 2010 wave. I think it'll be different this time around, but we'll see.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2014, 07:07:32 AM »

New Poll: Minnesota Governor by Survey USA on 2014-10-14

Summary: D: 50%, R: 40%, I: 3%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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