PPP-IA: Braley +1

[DrScholl]

Take a bow, Joni.

[DrScholl]

Take a bow, Joni.

From one poll. One ing poll. You gotta be ing kidding me.

Other polls have shown Braley closing hard. Once again, my prediction is turning out to be correct.

[DrScholl]

Take a bow, Joni.

From one poll. One ing poll. You gotta be ing kidding me.

Other polls have shown Braley closing hard. Once again, my prediction is turning out to be correct.

Calmly take your head away from your own inksit

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

[DrScholl]

Quasi-internal as it was done for lcv. To the trash!

The last one had Ernst up two. Time to be realistic.

[DrScholl]

The spinning here is pathetic and hilarious.

[DrScholl]

Oh, Republicans here.

Poll shows Ernst up six: "We're going to net eight seats!"
Poll shows Braley up one: "Nah, this can't be tied."

It's not, and we're still gaining eight seats

The spinning here is pathetic and hilarious.

Adding this quote to my signature.

You were saying that Terri Lynn Land would win and argued with me about it, and it turns out that I was right, since that seat turned out to be a poor prospect for Republicans. Add that to your signature.

[DrScholl]

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

[DrScholl]

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Actually, that's directly from RCP. Try again.

You ignored the fact that the DMR poll had Ernst up 6% last month, but when they polled again, she collapsed to 1%. Quinnipiac had Ernst 6% last month, but only up 2% when they polled again.

[DrScholl]

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

What is your point? Go sit down, please.

[DrScholl]

You ignored the fact that the DMR poll had Ernst up 6% last month, but when they polled again, she collapsed to 1%. Quinnipiac had Ernst 6% last month, but only up 2% when they polled again.

And you ignored the loras, marist, and suffolk polls that show ernst growing her lead.

The problem with your logic is that they polled the race before she had a burst of momentum that showed up 6%. Their most recent polling was at the end of the peak or after it. The trends among pollsters that polled during her peak shows a trajectory downward, not upward.

But please, keep it up, this 5150 meltdown is hilarious.

[DrScholl]

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

What is your point? Go sit down, please.

The idea that a company that previously had a poll deviating from the consensus by several points is now posting numbers consistent with other pollsters is not evidence of "momentum" for Braley; more likely it is attributable to random chance. As I stated earlier, the only definitive evidence we have so far of a Braley comeback is a partisan poll from PPP, and until other polls start to show similar movement away from the consensus of a slight Ernst lead, PPP's result should not be taken at face value.

You're right, PPP is lying and faking polls for Braley. As always, you people are 100% right!

[DrScholl]

Ernst's position on Agenda 21 certainly qualifies as an extremist position. Not to mention, she called the shooting at UCSB as an accident, which was just plain crazy.

[DrScholl]

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.

In reality, Ernst went from -4 to tied in the Loras poll, tied to +2 in the marist poll, and tied to +4 in the Suffolk poll.


Someone's closing all right.

Wrong as usual. There were at least two polls that showed Ernst up six, but that lead collapsed when both pollsters polled again (DMR and Quinnipiac). Further more, Ernst is hitting a ceiling of 47-48, which is about what she will get on election day.

Perhaps that earlier Selzer poll and Quinnipiac were outliers, because I can't imagine things have improved this quickly for Bruce Braley.

Don't let basic statistics get in the way of the narrative!

What is your point? Go sit down, please.

The idea that a company that previously had a poll deviating from the consensus by several points is now posting numbers consistent with other pollsters is not evidence of "momentum" for Braley; more likely it is attributable to random chance. As I stated earlier, the only definitive evidence we have so far of a Braley comeback is a partisan poll from PPP, and until other polls start to show similar movement away from the consensus of a slight Ernst lead, PPP's result should not be taken at face value.

You're right, PPP is lying and faking polls for Braley. As always, you people are 100% right!

Welcome to the ignore list.

Thank you, I was sick of you replying to my posts. Don't let the door hit you.

[DrScholl]

Perhaps. Unless you think that someone who thinks Iraq had WMDs, etc. is not an extremist.

cough

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/14/world/middleeast/us-casualties-of-iraq-chemical-weapons.html?_r=0

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/10/no-theres-still-no-evidence-there-was-active-wmd-program-iraq

It's not a revelation that Iraq had chemical weapons in the 1980s.

Indeed. Ernst is of the mind that the weapons were there, but Iraq moved them before the invasion.

[DrScholl]

Setting all those things aside, it should be disturbing to everyone that Ernst called a mass shooting an accident, just to defend guns. How is that a normal thing to say?

[DrScholl]

Setting all those things aside, it should be disturbing to everyone that Ernst called a mass shooting an accident, just to defend guns. How is that a normal thing to say?

Yeah because no candidate ever misspoke. Ever in the history of politics. Politically stupid, yes. Taken out of context, a bit. But evidence of mental illness. No.

I didn't say she was mentally ill. One doesn't have to be clinically insane to say crazy things.

[DrScholl]

If I'm not mistaken, there was a time that RCP didn't enter a poll last cycle, and it was an independent poll that wasn't commissioned by any group (it also showed a Republican trailing). RCP isn't all that trustworthy at times when it comes to entering polls.