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  Talk Elections
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  PPP-IA: Braley +1
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Author Topic: PPP-IA: Braley +1  (Read 7155 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: October 17, 2014, 11:13:41 am »

48/47. Both candidates are almost identically seen.
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backtored
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2014, 11:17:42 am »

Maybe the race has tightened, but I question whether it is actually tied. Other recent polling still has Ernst with a small lead and I suspect that is where it will end up.

It is a little odd, though, that Iowa has possibly tightened as other races have moved towards the GOP. Why?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2014, 11:21:58 am »

Take a bow, Joni.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2014, 11:23:06 am »

It is a little odd, though, that Iowa has possibly tightened as other races have moved towards the GOP. Why?

Probably because Braley went from massively underperforming to performing okay.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2014, 11:24:13 am »

Amazeballs. Cheesy
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2014, 11:25:07 am »

Waiting for another poll to confirm that, but that's quite relieving.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2014, 11:29:33 am »

This is an interesting development. This race will be down to the wire.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2014, 11:34:04 am »

Great news!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2014, 11:45:41 am »

My bet was always that IA's light blue tint would assert itself, so can't say I'm surprised.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2014, 11:46:49 am »

I remember in 2010 how the bottom nearly fell out completely for the Dems in Iowa. IA-1 and IA-2 weren't considered competitive and then in the final weeks, the DCCC started spending money to support Braley and Loebsack which probably made the difference for them. It's why I have been taking Ernst's lead at face value.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2014, 11:48:06 am »


From one poll. One ing poll. You gotta be ing kidding me.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2014, 11:49:03 am »
« Edited: October 17, 2014, 11:51:32 am by FreedomHawk »

This is an interesting development. This race will be down to the wire.

There's also the high Indie concentration, which is great. However, I'm pretty sure Braley is winning Indies, which slightly propelled him into a MoE lead with this already opaquely conducted poll.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2014, 11:51:19 am »

Quasi-internal as it was done for lcv. To the trash!
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DrScholl
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2014, 11:52:25 am »


Other polls have shown Braley closing hard. Once again, my prediction is turning out to be correct.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2014, 11:52:46 am »

Quasi-internal as it was done for lcv. To the trash!

Wait really? Nothing to see then, folks
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2014, 11:53:32 am »


Other polls have shown Braley closing hard. Once again, my prediction is turning out to be correct.

Calmly take your head away from your own inksit
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krazen1211
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2014, 11:54:23 am »

With Braley getting thrashed again and again, I guess they had to trot out PPP.
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Vosem
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2014, 11:55:44 am »

Guys, when you conduct 10 polls of a race where one candidate leads by 1-3 points, you're bound to get 1 or 2 that show the other candidate with a narrow lead. This is totally consistent with what we know, and Ernst is still on track to win.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2014, 11:56:21 am »

This is a poll for a democratic group.
But I'm not surprised. This race will be a very close race.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2014, 11:57:47 am »


Other polls have shown Braley closing hard. Once again, my prediction is turning out to be correct.

Calmly take your head away from your own inksit

The numbers are not good for Ernst. In other polls, she went from 6% leads to just 2%, so that indicates that Braley is closing.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2014, 11:59:16 am »

Quasi-internal as it was done for lcv. To the trash!

The last one had Ernst up two. Time to be realistic.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2014, 11:59:31 am »

While this is a partisan-affiliated poll, I have not noticed a substantive difference between their public and sponsored polls this cycle. While this adds slightly more credence to the idea that Ernst has lost ground, the fact that every other poll shows her up by 1-4 points demonstrates that she still has the edge.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2014, 12:04:19 pm »

Oh, Republicans here.

Poll shows Ernst up six: "We're going to net eight seats!"
Poll shows Braley up one: "Nah, this can't be tied."
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DrScholl
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2014, 12:05:31 pm »

The spinning here is pathetic and hilarious.
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Vosem
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2014, 12:05:42 pm »

Oh, Republicans here.

Poll shows Ernst up six: "We're going to net eight seats!"
Poll shows Braley up one: "Nah, this can't be tied."

It's not, and we're still gaining eight seats Smiley

The spinning here is pathetic and hilarious.

Adding this quote to my signature.
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