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  Talk Elections
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  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  GA-SUSA: Anyone's game
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Author Topic: GA-SUSA: Anyone's game  (Read 1091 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: October 15, 2014, 06:40:03 am »

46-46 Deal/Carter

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http://www.11alive.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/15/exclusive-poll-nunn-leads-senate-race-by-3/17239215/
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Biden/Abrams Voter
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2014, 06:50:26 am »

http://youtu.be/avcS0aYJ2a8?t=15s

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Cory Booker
olawakandi
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2014, 06:56:41 am »
« Edited: October 15, 2014, 06:58:18 am by OC »

Good news.
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Biden/Abrams Voter
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2014, 09:03:54 am »

Here are the crosstabs.

Crosstabs by gender: 51/49 female. Should be 55/45 female. Net effect is 1 point in under/over-representation for Democratic and Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard.

Crosstabs by race: 61% white, 27% black, 7% latino, 5% asian. Should be more like 63% white, 28% black, 8% latino, 1% asian. Whites and Asians lean more Republican; Blacks and Latinos lean more Democratic. Net effect is 2.5 points in terms of under/over-representation for Democratic & Republican groups, respectively. Poll skewed in favor of Perdue in this regard.

Crosstabs by region: I've never known what exactly defines the SUSA poll regions. They have three: "Northwest", "Atlanta", and "South and East", each of which comprise about 1/3 of their polling sizes. Any definition of "Northwest", however, shouldn't be close to being competitive, but this poll has it 48/40 Deal and 48/42 Perdue. Based on past SUSA polls, it would seem that the movement toward Dems in these polls is predominantly coming from here - they're actually polling better in the northern part of the state outside of Atlanta than in the southern part, which seems strange. Still, I don't know what their exact boundaries are and so I can't be sure about any skewing here.

All in all, I don't think this poll has a Democratic bias - unless those regions are skewed more than I can tell - and may even be slightly favorable as a whole to the Republicans.
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Watermelon sin Jamón
Zanas46
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2014, 03:43:36 pm »

Someday Dems are going to take over Georgia. It might not be this day yet, but it's not that far.
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2014, 05:47:02 pm »

Embarrassing
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2014, 10:13:27 pm »

So who performs better on election day, Nunn or Carter?
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2014, 10:18:34 pm »

Someday Dems are going to take over Georgia. It might not be this day yet, but it's not that far.

And then Georgia will be thought of as a multicultural metropolis and not a collection of Southern hicks.  Can't wait.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2014, 10:28:02 pm »

How is Deal doing better than Perdue? You'd think blatant corruption would weigh more heavily on the minds of voters than outsourcing comments, unless you're in New York.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2014, 10:31:55 pm »

How is Deal doing better than Perdue? You'd think blatant corruption would weigh more heavily on the minds of voters than outsourcing comments, unless you're in New York.

In a way, I think outsourcing can be seen in a campaign sense a sort of racebaiting, which has always been more effective than charges of corruption.
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