IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 22, 2023, 08:53:03 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2  (Read 2973 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,170
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 15, 2014, 06:20:29 AM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2014-10-13

Summary: D: 45%, R: 47%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
JRP1994
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,036


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2014, 06:31:03 AM »

Reversion to the mean.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,170
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2014, 06:32:38 AM »

Something is wrong with the Braley numbers, they are 2% too low.

Quinnipiac shows that the (weighted) sample is 30% D, 29% R and 41% I.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia10152014_demos_Ihst243bn.pdf

Ernst wins Republicans 95-2.

Braley wins Democrats 89-7.

Braley wins Indies 48-43.

...

Which means both Ernst and Braley have 47% overall if my math skills are not all too bad.

Could be a rounding issue though.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2014, 07:04:48 AM »

Castrated.
Logged
Stay out of Georgia
20RP12
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 37,024
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: -7.13


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2014, 07:36:33 AM »

This race pisses me off so much.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2014, 07:44:27 AM »

"Something is wrong with the Braley numbers: he's losing."
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,461
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2014, 07:45:43 AM »

Lol at the unskewing.
Logged
dmmidmi
dmwestmi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,095
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2014, 09:20:19 AM »

Logged
NUPES Enjoyer
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2014, 09:28:27 AM »
« Edited: October 15, 2014, 09:29:59 AM by Antonio V »


Not as much as Colorado though.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,919
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2014, 10:00:54 AM »

Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,326
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2014, 10:01:58 AM »

Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,580
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2014, 10:03:44 AM »

Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.
Logged
dmmidmi
dmwestmi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,095
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2014, 10:12:15 AM »


Both piss me off.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,733
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2014, 10:16:11 AM »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,305


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2014, 10:21:56 AM »

Braley has the momentum.
Logged
Recalcuate
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 444


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2014, 11:06:25 AM »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Huh? The +6 result was likely overstated. The actual state of this race seems consistent. Ernst with a very slight lead. If anything, the poll results have been relatively static over the past few weeks.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,461
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2014, 11:33:10 AM »

Let's be fair, the GOP is ahead in this race. But 1-2 points can change in 20 days.


Sure, I totally agree with that. Braley could turn it all around and win. 1-2 points is a statistical tie.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,170
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2014, 12:26:51 PM »

Looks like Suffolk/USAToday will release a new IA poll as well in 30 minutes.
Logged
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,750
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2014, 03:07:53 PM »

Logged
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,750
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2014, 03:17:58 PM »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,733
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2014, 03:45:07 PM »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...

Go get yourself some water. Either their previous poll was off (which I think it was) or Ernst has collapsed, either way, these numbers are not as good for her as the previous poll.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,234
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2014, 05:32:10 PM »

Ernst was up six in the last Qunnipiac poll, so this demonstrates a collapse in her numbers. Braley is closing hard and at this point, that's better news for him than it is for Ernst. It's interesting that no blue avatars are mentioning the fact that Ernst was leading by more in the last Quinnipiac poll.

Or perhaps this is just an incorrect poll, since it doesn't line up with anything else we've seen. Ernst is a horrible candidate and Republicans have pretty much admitted that they are not that optimistic about picking up the seat, that was stated in an article the other day.

Cough ...

Go get yourself some water. Either their previous poll was off (which I think it was) or Ernst has collapsed, either way, these numbers are not as good for her as the previous poll.

Or......
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean
Logged
KCDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,928


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2014, 07:49:38 PM »

Junk poll!
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,164
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2014, 08:10:24 PM »


Clearly. Getting very tempted to flip this one on my map but I'll hold off for now.
Logged
○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,651


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2014, 09:28:55 PM »


The good news for Colorado, is that we have a good chance even if we're trailing in the polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/co/colorado_senate_buck_vs_bennet-1106.html
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 14 queries.