KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3.
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  KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3.
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Author Topic: KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3.  (Read 4352 times)
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #25 on: October 13, 2014, 07:03:27 PM »

People keep missing my sarcasm... I am well aware of the problems of basing virtually anything on two observations. I'd be a poor economist if that weren't the case.

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.

Really?

Of course it is in this context. The slope up when where one is tends to increase as you close the gap. That is of course related to fundamentals. Booker in NJ has lost a ton of points in lead, a rather steep decline. Will he lose based on extrapolations? Of course not. Now Virginia, where the same thing is happening, with different fundamentals, is a tad more interesting. Smiley

I would imagine that any state "wants" to regress to its conditional mean more or less and the creation of "momentum" can create a positive feedback loop to accelerate that process. There is more than ample reason to suggest that Roberts could accelerate his rise moreso than Orman could do in a reversed situation. I was merely pointing out that the here-to-date closing would not be sufficient for a Roberts victory.
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #26 on: October 13, 2014, 07:12:02 PM »

Orman will still win. LOL at those listening to the Pennsylvania Republican.

To understand Kansas is to understand the dynamics of the race. There was a very divisive primary between the establishment incumbent (Roberts) and the upstart tea party challenger (Wolf).

It's pretty much clear that Orman leads at this point.

However, the race has narrowed as the healing process started to take root. Whether the remaining 25-percent of Republicans not voting for Roberts rallies behind him for sake of taking the Senate out of Democrat hands remains to be seen, but this seat is definitely in play and not a given Democrat take at this point in time.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #27 on: October 13, 2014, 08:52:18 PM »

Sample is slightly friendly to Democrats IMO, but confirmed what I have seen first-hand - Roberts has certainly narrowed the gap, and is on his way to winning in November.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #28 on: October 13, 2014, 09:27:24 PM »

Sample is slightly friendly to Democrats IMO

Why do you say that?
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KCDem
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« Reply #29 on: October 13, 2014, 09:29:09 PM »


Because Orman is leading.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #30 on: October 13, 2014, 09:30:13 PM »

Romney vs. Obama '12 numbers. I think that turnout will be relatively similar to 2012 as Democrats are overall more enthused, but I doubt it'll be more friendly to Democrats.

Just a small difference - might shift numbers by a point if that.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #31 on: October 13, 2014, 09:30:57 PM »

Don't be ridiculous.
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KCDem
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« Reply #32 on: October 13, 2014, 09:32:38 PM »

Romney vs. Obama '12 numbers. I think that turnout will be relatively similar to 2012 as Democrats are overall more enthused, but I doubt it'll be more friendly to Democrats.

Just a small difference - might shift numbers by a point if that.

Obama won 38% of the vote in the sample...the same as in 2012.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #33 on: October 13, 2014, 10:06:31 PM »

Romney vs. Obama '12 numbers. I think that turnout will be relatively similar to 2012 as Democrats are overall more enthused, but I doubt it'll be more friendly to Democrats.

Just a small difference - might shift numbers by a point if that.

Obama won 38% of the vote in the sample...the same as in 2012.

And Romney won 54% of the vote in the sample, while he won close to 60% in 2012.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #34 on: October 13, 2014, 10:14:37 PM »

Romney vs. Obama '12 numbers. I think that turnout will be relatively similar to 2012 as Democrats are overall more enthused, but I doubt it'll be more friendly to Democrats.

Just a small difference - might shift numbers by a point if that.

Obama won 38% of the vote in the sample...the same as in 2012.

And Romney won 54% of the vote in the sample, while he won close to 60% in 2012.

It's a pretty consistent trend in PPP polls that "someone else/don't remember" are almost always Romney voters.
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SPC
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« Reply #35 on: October 13, 2014, 11:28:29 PM »

If you run a plot of Roberts's and Orman's absolute polling numbers with the date that the poll was taken, you notice that Orman's numbers have not budged from ~46% since Taylor's withdrawal from the race, whereas Roberts has been gaining a percentage point roughly every four days. This trend exists even if you omit the anomalous FOX poll from the sample. From a pure momentum standpoint, Roberts is on track to win this race by around 5 points.

While momentum is overrated as a metric of one-on-one races, it could be indicative of a trend of the undecided voters, especially since it seems to be solely a movement of undecideds toward the Roberts camp. Given that Orman currently leads by roughly 2 points, I will split the difference and say Roberts wins this by a percentage point.
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Badger
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« Reply #36 on: October 14, 2014, 05:44:41 PM »

Orman will still win. LOL at those listening to the Pennsylvania Republican.

What does being a PA Republican have to do with anything?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #37 on: October 14, 2014, 05:45:46 PM »

Orman will still win. LOL at those listening to the Pennsylvania Republican.

What does being a PA Republican have to do with anything?

Just remember: Santorum lost to a "BALD" guy!
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Badger
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« Reply #38 on: October 14, 2014, 06:07:05 PM »

Orman will still win. LOL at those listening to the Pennsylvania Republican.

What does being a PA Republican have to do with anything?

Just remember: Santorum lost to a "BALD" guy!

Nope, still don't get it.
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