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  KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3.
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Author Topic: KS-PPP: Orman (I) leads by 3.  (Read 3261 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: October 13, 2014, 02:28:21 pm »

Orman (I) 44%
Roberts (R) 41%
Batson (L) 5%

Orman (I) 46%
Roberts (R) 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_KS_1012118.pdf
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2014, 02:29:08 pm »

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SWE
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2014, 02:30:00 pm »

Gross
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2014, 02:34:18 pm »

Orman led by seven in the last PPP poll.

Let's get real, folks: Roberts will win. The vast majority of you won't look as foolish if you just come around, admit you were wrong earlier and concede that the seat will be a GOP hold.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2014, 02:36:50 pm »

What Phil said.
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Maistre
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2014, 02:37:26 pm »

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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2014, 02:39:32 pm »

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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2014, 02:47:59 pm »

Better chance the GOP wins here than Colorado
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R2D2 (Compulsive Hand Washing Edition)
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2014, 02:51:31 pm »

I can't believe Kansas is going to be the state to watch on election night.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2014, 03:07:51 pm »

Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2014, 03:12:51 pm »

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2014, 03:26:54 pm »

Orman led by seven in the last PPP poll.

Let's get real, folks: Roberts will win. The vast majority of you won't look as foolish if you just come around, admit you were wrong earlier and concede that the seat will be a GOP hold.
Not willing to concede that yet, but I will return the race to Toss-Up from Leans I. You may get your wish after all.....


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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2014, 03:45:59 pm »

Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...

Republicans celebrating because their INCUMBENT SENATOR IN KANSAS is "only losing by 3 points". I love this election cycle.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2014, 03:47:12 pm »

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.
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Everything Burns...
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2014, 03:47:50 pm »

Closer than expected, but Orman's still got this.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2014, 03:59:38 pm »

Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...

Republicans celebrating because their INCUMBENT SENATOR IN KANSAS is "only losing by 3 points". I love this election cycle.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200231.0

Read almost every red avatar's post in this thread
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2014, 04:02:32 pm »

Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...

Republicans celebrating because their INCUMBENT SENATOR IN KANSAS is "only losing by 3 points". I love this election cycle.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200231.0

Read almost every red avatar's post in this thread

Iowa is SUPPOSED to be competitive, it's a purple state. Plus there's no incumbent. It would be comparable if Democrats were cheering that Chris Coons was "only trailing" Kevin Wade by 3 points.
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Torie
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2014, 04:21:37 pm »

Hi there px. You know, I don't make too many predictions (as to the forumites who do that incessantly, I tend to view that more a function of the enthusiasm of youth, and well, predictions is the essence of the site, so I don't mind it much but whatever), particularly when they are against the grain (a fool's errand really). When I do, there is a certain reasoning behind it. I judged Orman more or less just another pretty face, with not much there behind it, as he attempted his little tight wire aerial act. The odds were he was going to fall off. Unlike Orman, I like to think that I am not entirely just another pretty face you know. Have a nice day.

But look at the upside, px. Given my doubling down here, if the winds shift and Orman wins, you will savor it all the more. Cheers.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2014, 04:26:24 pm »

Ummm Roberts is still losing and at 41%...

Republicans celebrating because their INCUMBENT SENATOR IN KANSAS is "only losing by 3 points". I love this election cycle.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200231.0

Read almost every red avatar's post in this thread

Iowa is SUPPOSED to be competitive, it's a purple state. Plus there's no incumbent. It would be comparable if Democrats were cheering that Chris Coons was "only trailing" Kevin Wade by 3 points.

It's a big shift from the last PPP poll, which had Orman up by 10. Granted, Roberts is still in a really terrible place electorally (an incumbent behind and only at 41%), but the ground is shifting toward his favor (mainly because Republicans are coming home).
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Representative Joe Mad
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2014, 05:19:48 pm »

Yea, I'll hold out hope but I feel like this might not be Orman's in the end.  A shame too.  I admittedly would prefer Orman, and it'd be really cool to see him win simply for the sake of having another independent in the senate.
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2014, 05:24:04 pm »

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.

Really?
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Torie
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2014, 05:30:09 pm »

Extrapolating the change from PPP's last poll, Roberts should take the lead on November 10th.

This is generally a very bad idea, from both a common sense and statistical standpoint.

Really?

Of course it is in this context. The slope up when where one is tends to increase as you close the gap. That is of course related to fundamentals. Booker in NJ has lost a ton of points in lead, a rather steep decline. Will he lose based on extrapolations? Of course not. Now Virginia, where the same thing is happening, with different fundamentals, is a tad more interesting. Smiley
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Recalcuate
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2014, 06:12:15 pm »

Orman led by seven in the last PPP poll.

Let's get real, folks: Roberts will win. The vast majority of you won't look as foolish if you just come around, admit you were wrong earlier and concede that the seat will be a GOP hold.

A further narrowing wouldn't shock me, either. It seems like the healing process has begun for the GOP after a divisive primary and the Republicans are bringing out the big guns in an attempt to stabilize the state as insurance to get to 51.

The wild card, of course, is that Roberts is running against an independent and not a Democrat and the Democrat is gone. It will be interesting to see how the dynamics will work out here with Orman not having the Democrat nameplate.
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SPC
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2014, 06:40:04 pm »


My sincerest apologies for ever doubting him (although in my defense, I did not question the outcome so much as his certainty)
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KCDem
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2014, 06:44:19 pm »

Orman will still win. LOL at those listening to the Pennsylvania Republican.
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