New Iowa poll at 400 MST Saturday
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Author Topic: New Iowa poll at 400 MST Saturday  (Read 5131 times)
backtored
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« on: October 10, 2014, 10:29:17 PM »

Seltzer/DM Register/Bloomberg
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2014, 11:44:15 PM »

This is gonna be good...
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2014, 04:17:25 AM »


Or very, very bad.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2014, 07:52:46 AM »

It makes it look like its going to be released at 4am... rather than PM.
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backtored
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2014, 09:56:03 AM »

It makes it look like its going to be released at 4am... rather than PM.

This is America.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2014, 01:38:55 PM »

I'm guessing it'll show Ernst around +3 or 4
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2014, 01:45:49 PM »


I meant the anticipation will be good. I fully expect this result to be a punch in the gut. Tongue
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2014, 05:01:35 PM »

47/46 Ernst.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2014, 05:01:42 PM »

Ernst leads 47-46.

Braleymentum!!!!
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backtored
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2014, 05:01:46 PM »

Ernst by one.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2014, 05:03:55 PM »

Wow, that's a lot better than I expected. Looks like this one's back to being a pure toss up.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2014, 05:04:19 PM »

This is gonna be super close. One of those great races were you can really see what a state looks like when it is almost 50-50.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2014, 05:04:36 PM »

Here's the link.
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New_Conservative
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2014, 05:05:10 PM »

Wow, that's a lot better than I expected. Looks like this one's back to being a pure toss up.
It's been a pure tossup for a while.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2014, 05:07:17 PM »

Looks like the good people of Iowa are starting to decide they want a sophisticated lawyer as their senator.
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Marston
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2014, 05:07:48 PM »

Braley gained 8 pts since their last poll. It looks like Dems are finally waking up to the fact that they're about to let frickin' Joni Ernst slip away with a Senate seat.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2014, 05:08:57 PM »

Wow, that's a lot better than I expected. Looks like this one's back to being a pure toss up.
It's been a pure tossup for a while.

Well, the gold standard had her up 6 before this, and Quinnipiac also had her up 6. PPP had her up 2. Ras, YouGov, and some other meh pollsters had it closer, but the others had far more weight in my eyes.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2014, 05:09:17 PM »

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I kinda doubt its that close.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2014, 05:19:07 PM »

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I kinda doubt its that close.

That's pretty strange. Ernst is going to be running up the score in IA-04, wouldn't Braley have to be running up the score in IA-01 to offset that, assuming it's a 1 point race overall?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2014, 05:29:17 PM »

The sample on IA-01 would be about 250 respondents. One shouldn't read that much into it.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2014, 06:53:23 PM »

It makes it look like its going to be released at 4am... rather than PM.

This is America.

No... because 400 MST - without anything else - no dots, no AM/PM is 4am.
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Ryan in Iowa
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« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2014, 07:16:26 PM »

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I kinda doubt its that close.

That's pretty strange. Ernst is going to be running up the score in IA-04, wouldn't Braley have to be running up the score in IA-01 to offset that, assuming it's a 1 point race overall?

IA-02 is the heavy dem district, which contains Iowa City/Johnson county, a very liberal area compared to the rest of the state.

However, Braley will win IA-01 by more than 1 in my opinion. I have always thought Braley would win a close race, and I still think that. The early voting laws in Iowa create great conditions for Dems to win close races.

Very early voting + great dem organization (it really is) = dems win close races in Iowa
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Flake
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« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2014, 07:39:55 PM »

Ernst is still leading but it looks like Braley can win this!

Tell me again: why did Ernst lead so much a few weeks ago?
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Flake
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« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2014, 07:44:51 PM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Selzer & Co on 2014-10-08

Summary: D: 46%, R: 47%, I: 3%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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porky88
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« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2014, 08:54:59 PM »

Erntz is too conservative for the state, but Braley is a terrible candidate. He pretty much insulted Iowans. I wonder what the rules for a recount are in Iowa. I think we could be heading into that direction.
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