Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

Lastest poll in Tokyo has Koike's approval rating dropping slightly from 67% to 65.2%

In terms of voting intentions for Tokyo Prefecture election TPFA(Koike Party) is surging ahead as LDP slumps



TPFA     42.3 (+4.5)
LDP      13.4 (-1.9)
JCP         7.1 (+1.1)
KP          4.1 (-1.8    )
DP          4.0 (-1.3)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

DP          4.0 (-1.3)

Lol

[jaichind]

Yasunori Kagoike, the head of a school operator mired in controversy over its cut-price purchase of a plot of state-owned land in western Japan said Thursday he received donations from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for the elementary school being built on the site.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga says Prime Minister Shinzo Abe didn’t make a donation to the school foundation at the center of land-sale scandal, neither by himself nor through his wife, office, or a third person. Suga says Abe will check if his wife made donation in her personal capacity; says it won’t take long to confirm.

Even though the LDP has been trying to avoid this, they had to accept summing Yasunori Kagoike to the diet to question him.

All this stuff in the news will hurt Abe's approval rating but even if Abe or his wife donated to this elementary school I do not see why that is a big deal.  Unless there is some evidence that Abe or his wife were involved in the schooling buying this land at a reduced price Abe is safe.

[jaichind]

Abe denied Friday that he and his wife ever made a donation to Yasunori Kagoike.  Kagoike claimed that Abe's wife made such a donation back in 2015 and will testify in the Diet 3/23 about the land deal.  The topic of Abe/wife donation will come up.  Abe better hope Kagoike does not produce proof of such a donation.  There is nothing wrong with Abe or his wife making such a donation but if such evidence was produced it would be an issue of the coverup/lies being way worse than the original scandal.

The reason this can hurt Abe is that Abe's wife always had a moderate image which attracted centrist voters that would otherwise be concerned with Abe's revisionist image.  This way Abe can rope in the nationalist vote while Abe's wife ropes in the Centrist vote.  Abe's wife being involved with this school which revisionist ties breaks that image that is why Abe is eager to disavow any ties, even legal ones, to   Yasunori Kagoike.
 

[jaichind]

In Tokyo, with TPFA-KP seeming to have an insurmountable lead on the polls it seems LDP might join hands with JRP to try to salvage some seats.  This leads to some interesting dynamics in different cities if this takes place.  In Tokyo it will be TPFA-KP vs LDP-JRP.  While in Osaka it is KP with an alliance with LDP (although increasingly strained) but also an alliance with JRP even as LDP and JRP are hostile to each other.

[Lachi]

RIP the democrats in Tokyo for the forseeable future

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The reason this can hurt Abe is that Abe's wife always had a moderate image which attracted centrist voters that would otherwise be concerned with Abe's revisionist image.  This way Abe can rope in the nationalist vote while Abe's wife ropes in the Centrist vote.  Abe's wife being involved with this school which revisionist ties breaks that image that is why Abe is eager to disavow any ties, even legal ones, to   Yasunori Kagoike.

Yeah, even I had a favorable-ish opinion of Abe Akie before this.

[jaichind]

RIP the democrats in Tokyo for the forseeable future

Yes.  In fact after the DP gets hammered in Tokyo prefecture elections then the knives will be out for Renho and she will most likely have to step down.  The hope was that she can get DP support nationally above 10% in the polls but she has not delivered plus DP get hit in her home turf is fatal for her leadership.

[jaichind]

Latest go2senkyo.com poll for Tokyo Prefecture elections



Landslide victory for TPFA with a majority on its own and  LDP reduced to 22 seats as well as JRP and SNT both wiped out.  No party since the start of Tokyo Prefecture elections in 1947 has ever won an absolute majority in its own.  LDP usually hover around low to mid 50s.  2013 LDP of 59 seats is the highest it has ever received.

TPFA       66
KP           23
LDP         22
DP            5
JCP         11

Not sure if this poll takes into account a possible DP-JCP alliance.  There are still a lot of internal infighting in what is left of Tokyo DP on if DP-JCP alliance makes sense.  I think it is true a DP-JCP alliance will drive votes away from DP toward LDP or TPFA, the reality is those voters already are going to vote TPFA or LDP anyway so at this stage it has to be able survival of DP as a viable party in Tokyo.  Only a DP-JCP alliance could save a few seats for both parties.

A comparison to 2005 2009 2013 elections



Green TPFA
Blue LDP
Pink KP
Red DP
Orange JCP
Light Green JRP
Yellow SNT (center left local Tokyo Party)
Brown - YP (defunct)
Grey - other/independents

It is funny how KP always wins 23 seats no matter what.  It gets 23 seats in a "normal" Tokyo prefecture election in 2005, it wins 23 in a DP victory in 2000, it wins 23 in a LDP-KP landslide and DP collapse in 2013, and now it will win 23 in a TPFA-KP landslide with a collapse of LDP as well as near extinction of DP.

In 2009 the 2 other/independents are split into 1 pro-DPJ independent and 1 minor Left party
In 2005 the 5 other/independents are split into 2 pro-LDP independent and 3 minor Left parties

[jaichind]

DP          4.0 (-1.3)

Lol

Well, in Japan the dominate party always over polls (in this case TPFA) while DP and KP always under-polls.  Usually one has to multiply the DP support numbers by 2.5 to get their election day vote share.

I would say

TPFA     42.3 
LDP      13.4
JCP         7.1
KP          4.1 
DP          4.0

will roughly translate into something like on election day

TPFA     43 
LDP       18
JCP        12
KP         12 
DP         10

which would still be a disaster for DP

[jaichind]

The new line from Abe's office on Yasunori Kagoike's claim that Abe's wife donated around $8000 to his kindergarten is that "most likely" when Yasunori Kagoike invited Abe's wife to give a speech at his kindergarten she was offered a honoraria for giving the speech which she turned down.  As a result Yasunori Kagoike recorded that amount she did not take a donation to the school.

[jaichind]

The Mainichi Shimbun has obtained a copy of a post office receipt for a deposit of 1 million yen that scandal-hit Moritomo Gakuen claims to have been donated by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's wife Akie Abe.



The receipt copy for the deposit shows Moritomo Gakuen as the depositor handwritten over whiteout tape. When the receipt is held up to the light, the name "Shinzo Abe" can be made out underneath the whiteout. The seal of the post office that handled the payment is stamped over the whited-out portion.

 

[jaichind]

Latest NNN poll show significant erosion of support for Abe and LDP due to the Yasunori Kagoike controversy.  Questions on details of the situation shows at the minimum the optics are not good.  Again, without a smoking gun, Abe will survive this weakened and not defeated.

Abe cabinet support 47.6(-7.3) (this is back to record low of Aug 2015 during the new Security Bill)
                  opposed 32.9(+6.9)
Around 40% of those that support Abe cabinet says it is because "there is no one else"

Party support

LDP   37.8 (-7.2)
DP     12.3 (+5.2)
KP       4.4 (+1.6)
JCP      4.4 (+0.6)
JRP      2.0 (+0.6)
SDP     1.4 (+0.4)
LP        0.4 (----)
PJK      0.1 (+0.1)

These levels of party support are roughly in line with what NNN found right around the 2016 Upper House elections.   Most of the ground Abe has gained due various high profile actions/meetings plus DP infighting has been lost.

On Yasunori Kagoike  land deal. The government explains that this land transaction is an appropriate deal with an estimated amount after estimating the expenses necessary for waste disposal buried in the basement of the land. Do not you agree with this explanation, do you agree?
Convincing 3.9%
Not convincing 83.8%

Prime Minister Abe 's wife, Mrs. Akie, has become an honorary principal of a private elementary school under construction on this land and recently quit. Do not you think that the Prime Minister's honorary position at this elementary school is appropriate?
I think so 9.3%
I do not think so 76.9%

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll

Abe cabinet approval/disapproval   56(-10)/33(+9)

Different polls have different biases.  Net affect is Abe cabinet approval rating falling to mid 2016 if not mid 2015 levels.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is there any way these numbers might give Renhō a second lease on life or is she definitely going to be turfed out after the Tokyo elections regardless?

[Lachi]

Is there any way these numbers might give Renhō a second lease on life or is she definitely going to be turfed out after the Tokyo elections regardless?

She's a goner.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is there any way these numbers might give Renhō a second lease on life or is she definitely going to be turfed out after the Tokyo elections regardless?

She's a goner.

That's what I thought. Shame, she's #extra and has an atypical background and I like her a lot better than the interchangeable Kan/Noda/Kaieda/Okada toom tabards.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I liked Kan tbh

[jaichind]

Is there any way these numbers might give Renhō a second lease on life or is she definitely going to be turfed out after the Tokyo elections regardless?

Abe's troubles will not result in DP making any gains in Tokyo where it counts.  TPFA  is much more likely to gain in Tokyo instead.  Outside of Tokyo I suspect JRP might gain more from this than DP.  Renho's real problem is that she has to run a policy driven agenda since DP, but especially her, has no patronage resources to keep the party together.  As a result she is pushing a nuclear free Japan as her main agenda.  This is running into opposition from the pro-DP Rengo industrial unions whose members often are pro-nuclear power for the jobs it creates which in turn makes her weaker when she encounter electoral reverses. 

[jaichind]

I think DP should look into bring back Ozawa and LP back into DP. See this chart which I posted before on a history of PR votes share in Japanese national elections.

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74

In the years Ozawa was part of DPJ/DP 2002-2011, the Center-Left vote share never fell below 35%.  In the years where Ozawa is not party of DPJ/DP, pre-2002 and post-2011, the Center-Left vote share was never above 35%.

[jaichind]

There is one thing that could get in the way of a TPFA sweep of the Tokyo Prefecture elections in July.  That is the issue of candidate selection.  Out of the 59 LDP incumbents, a few are retiring and some have defected to TPFA but all things equal a majority are staying loyal to LDP and will run as LDP candidates.  Many of them have been the butt of Koike's verbal attacks in public and most are gambling that Koike might fizzle out by July.  Most of them have deep roots in their district.   Obviously if TPFA has 40% support going into the election the LDP will be crushed for sure.  But if the LDP can close the gap with TPFA by July as Tokyo tires of Koike then these deep roots can play a factor in saving LDP seats.  Unless TPFA  can recruit some quality candidates by July the landslide for TPFA that is predicted might not take place.

[jaichind]

RCP like graph of Abe cabinet approval.  Approval rating which surged on Abe's meeting with Trump have climbed down on the most recent scandal



The big showdown will be 3/23 when Kagoike will testify under oath in the Diet and promises to "reveal all" on how he got the land for such a low value and his relationship with the Abe couple.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think DP should look into bring back Ozawa and LP back into DP. See this chart which I posted before on a history of PR votes share in Japanese national elections.

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74

In the years Ozawa was part of DPJ/DP 2002-2011, the Center-Left vote share never fell below 35%.  In the years where Ozawa is not party of DPJ/DP, pre-2002 and post-2011, the Center-Left vote share was never above 35%.

Yes, this sounds good until you remember Ozawa is still Ozawa.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I think DP should look into bring back Ozawa and LP back into DP. See this chart which I posted before on a history of PR votes share in Japanese national elections.

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74

In the years Ozawa was part of DPJ/DP 2002-2011, the Center-Left vote share never fell below 35%.  In the years where Ozawa is not party of DPJ/DP, pre-2002 and post-2011, the Center-Left vote share was never above 35%.

Yes, this sounds good until you remember Ozawa is still Ozawa.

I agree. The fact that Ozawa on policy (purely qua policy) is one of the best options in Japan right now shouldn't distract anybody from what a scheming SOB he is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Elsewhere I once described him as a 'frankly Satanic figure' and I stand by this.