Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections all races called

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

2015 results are

LDP          32
KP              3
JIP              1
DPJ           16
SDP            1
JCP             5

I will have vote share calculations later.  Like I said before, LDP did gain ground from DPJ in rural areas but lost ground to DPJ in urban areas most due to superior DPJ nomination strategies.  JCP did not do as well as expected.

[jaichind]

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections comparison between 2007 2011 2015

I lumped pro-LDP independents with LDP and pro-DPJ independents with DPJ.  


2015

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     40                     32                  48.06%
KP                         3                       3                    6.71%
JIP                        3                       1                    2.22%
DPJ                     21                     16                   27.95%
SDP                      2                       1                     2.71%
JCP                       6                       5                    10.71%
Independents        4                       0                     1.64%
                                  


2011

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     40                     32                  50.90%
KP                         3                       3                    6.37%
YP                         3                       1                    2.55%
DPJ                     27                     16                   26.44%
SDP                      4                       1                     3.63%
JCP                       6                       5                     8.70%
Independents       5                      0                      1.40%



2007

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     44                     32                  53.11%
KP                         3                       3                    6.20%
DPJ                     21                     17                   26.86%
SDP                      4                       3                     5.15%
JCP                       6                       3                     8.12%
Independents       2                       0                      0.56%


While it seems that DPJ and JCP gained vote share against LDP since 2011 it is not really the case.  In 2015 the DPJ decided not to contest as much as they did in 2011 in LDP dominated seats in rural areas.  This has the effect of artifically lowering the LDP vote share since there were more districts where voting was not necessary.  Looking  the rural seats where the DPJ did confront LDP as well as urban seats it is clear that LDP gained on DPJ in rural areas while DPJ and JCP gained on LDP in urban areas.  So in terms of level of support 2015 is also pretty much a wash relative to 2011 for the LDP.  In that sense this is not a bad result for DPJ since 2011 is mostly seen as the nadir of the LDP in local elections.



Another way to look at the data to understand the urban/rural dynamics is to just look at the 4 urban election districts and compare 2007 2011 and 2015 results there since all 4 districts are contested.  These 4 urban districts make up 31 out of 58 seats.

2015

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     17                     13                  42.59%
KP                         3                       3                  10.42%
JIP                        3                       1                    3.45%
DPJ                     11                       9                   24.74%
SDP                      2                       1                     4.21%
JCP                       5                       4                   13.52%
Independents        2                       0                     1.07%
                                  


2011

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     17                     15                  42.47%
KP                         3                       3                   11.46%
YP                         3                       1                    4.59%
DPJ                     12                       7                  22.54%
SDP                      3                       1                     5.51%
JCP                       5                       4                   12.54%
Independents       5                       0                     0.90%



2007

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     20                     15                  49.05%
KP                         3                       3                  10.13%
DPJ                       8                       7                   21.25%
SDP                      4                       3                     8.42%
JCP                       5                       3                   10.43%
Independents        1                       0                    0.72%

It seems clear what took place.  LDP+KP vote share dropped about 1% in urban areas between 2011 and 2015 and because DPJ+SDP nominated less people they were able to gain 2 seats from LDP with a 1% growth in vote share.  JCP also gained a bit in vote share.

In rural areas, DPJ contested less seats giving LDP a bunch of walkovers and DPJ lost two open seats to LDP, one of them where DPJ did not bother to put up a candidate even thought DPJ held the seats.  

So this election is about DPJ getting smarter in urban areas plus a small swing.  In rural areas it is mostly LDP vs DPJ head to head and DPJ continues to lose confidence as turnout falls and it finds it hard to win against the LDP larger vote base absent the floating vote actually turning out.  This same trend was going on from 2007 to 2011 as most of the gains by DPJ against LDP in that period was also clearly in urban areas.

[jaichind]

Major setback for Abe.  Japan July-September GDP shrinks annualized 0.8%.  Japan is now in recession a second time since the Abe administration began in Dec 2012.  There will now be pressure for a extra budget which will run into resistance from the powerful Ministry of Finance.  There will also be pressure for yet another round of QE.  Of course if QE is stepped up and continues at that pace in the BOJ will pretty much own all Japanese public debt in a decade or so.

[jaichind]

Osaka mayor and Osaka governor election tomorrow.  Right now it seems ORA seems to be well placed to win both races over LDP.

[jaichind]

Exit poll for Osaka Mayor race which is closer



The key here is that the ORA won 35% of the LDP vote AND 98% of the ORA vote.  The real enemy of the ORA in Osaka city is DPJ KP and KP.  ORA could only win 17% 11% and 6% of their votes respectively.  But it is not needed.  ORA should cruise to victory in this race.

[jaichind]

For Osaka Governor race it is ORA ahead of LDP 63-35 with 52% of the vote counted.  For Osaka mayor it is ORA ahead of LDP 52-46 with 20% of the vote counted.

[jaichind]

Hashimoto will claim this is a mandate to push for another Osaka merger referendum which if it takes place I suspect Yes will win this time.

[jaichind]

There is going to be all sorts of cascading effects from this election result.  JIP will weaken further as MPs on the fence might go over to ORA.  This will add to the conflict within DPJ between pro-JIP and pro-JCP factions.  Pro-JIP faction is for dissolving DPJ and merge with JIP to from THE non-JCP opposition party.  Pro-JCP faction is for an alliance with JCP with the option of expanding said alliance with JIP.  One way or another this conflict could weaken DPJ or lead to a split.  Abe now would be quite tempted to call a double election in 2016 where there will be a lower house election next year at the same time as an upper house election. Abe's logic would be that the weakened opposition parties would not have enough money to spend on both elections at the same time and be crushed in both elections.

[jaichind]

The Osaka Governor election exit polls show the ORA winning 47% of the LDP vote and 96% of the ORA vote.  The LDP candidate won 50% of the LDP vote and around 70% of the DPJ KP and JCP vote.  The LDP in Osaka is turning into the DPJ-KP-JCP alliance with some backing from LDP.

[jaichind]

With 88% of the vote counted in the Osaka Governor race it is ORA 63.3 LDP 34.4.  With 69% of the vote counted in the Osaka mayor election it is ORA 54.3 DPJ 42.2

[jaichind]

I guess this gives the de facto mandate for Hashimoto to remain in politics.  I wonder in what way will he break his pledge?  It could be he does quite politics, like Osaka local politics, but reemerge on national politics as a member of Abe's cabinet.  Hashimoto and Abe has always been close.  Before Abe won his surprise victory for LDP leadership in late 2012, Hashimoto actually invited Abe to join his new JRP and become a co-leader of his new party.

[jaichind]

With 98% of the vote counted in the Osaka Governor race it is ORA 63.9 LDP 33.5.  With 95% of the vote counted in the Osaka mayor election it is ORA 56.4 DPJ 39.0

[tpfkaw]

Why does the JIP oppose Abe's constitutional changes? From the right because they consider it not ideologically pure enough? From the right/left because of Anti-Americanism? From the left in order to opportunistically oppose an unpopular decision? From the left because they want to be a potential coalition partner for DPJ? From the left because they genuinely are less hawkish than Abe? Some combination?

[jaichind]

Why does the JIP oppose Abe's constitutional changes? From the right because they consider it not ideologically pure enough? From the right/left because of Anti-Americanism? From the left in order to opportunistically oppose an unpopular decision? From the left because they want to be a potential coalition partner for DPJ? From the left because they genuinely are less hawkish than Abe? Some combination?

Well,  JIP was a confederation of DPJ rebels, YP, and Hashimoto supporters.  While most of them would have no real issues with Abe constitutional changes, some might have real concerns on how Abe is doing it.  Also the some of the ex-YP and ex-DPJ members of JIP, opposing Abe on constitutional changes is a way of forming the basis of an grand alliance of opposition parties with DPJ, PLP, SDP, and perhaps even JCP.

[jaichind]

Looks like DPJ and JIP will form a joint parliamentary group. With ORA being fairly viable party after their landslide victories in Osaka, the fate of the DPJ-JIP alliance in 2016 elections will depend on how much of the anti-LDP vote the ORA will capture outside of Osaka.  In Osaka it will be ORA vs an increasing anti-Abe Osaka LDP.

[jaichind]

Latest developments.  Overall the Abe cabinet approval is rising back up to be what it was in early summer before the onslaught of the new security law.  So it seems Abe survived his gambit.  As payoff to KP who vote base seems to be opposed to the new security legislation, it seems LDP has agreed to to change the consumption tax rate at 8% on food and drinks when the overall rate goes up to 10% in 2017.  KP's vote base is the urban lower middle class which would be hurt badly by this tax increase.  Now KP can claim that it brought home the bacon.  Of course now Abe will have to find extra revenue or reduce spending or face the wrath of the Ministry of Finance.  There is also talk again of a double election next July as part of this payoff.  KP usually prefers to separate out elections since it resources are limited like opposition parties.  it is the LDP, flush with funds that prefer double election.  The payoff to KP on the consumption seems so large that there are rumors that KP also agreed to double election.  Abe seems to deny this but he does not seem to rule out a double election either.  With LDP-KP support coming back up, DPJ and JIP mired in internal splits out opposition alliance strategy, and ORA splitting the opposition vote, it seems that LDP-KP is set to cruise to a large victory in a double election in the summer of 2016 and get the majority and mandate it needs to remove Clause 9 of the Constitution which binds Japan not to use military force.  Quite an accomplishment and legacy for Abe.

[jaichind]

Looking at the 51 JIP MPs, I can break down their background into this chart
(PGOR is Political Group of Okinawa Revolution, SPJ is Sunrise Party of Japan)
 
                   Upper House              Lower House
PGOR                  1                                1
YP                       6                                9
Osaka                 2                               11
LDP                                                      3
DPJ                     1                                9
PLP                                                       4
SPJ                     1                                3

Note: One of YP Upper house is really pro-YP.  One DPJ lower house is pro-DPJ.   For the YP background MPs, 3 Upper House MPs and 2 Lower House went from LDP to YP (including the YP background JIP leader Eda), 2 Lower House MPs went from DPJ to YP (including JIP General Secretary and center of the entire storm  Kakizawa.  JIP leader Matsuno has DPJ background.  One of the Osaka background Upper House MP is really not based from Osaka but is are so aligned with Hashimoto that I am just counting him as Osaka background.

So if 12 Osaka MP attended the Hashimoto meeting last night and pledged to join the new Hashimoto Party it must be from the 13 MPs of Osaka background.  It is said that the Hashimoto could have up to 20 MP members.  If so then it must be the 13 MPs with Osaka background, 3 with LDP background, and 4 with SPJ background which would make it 20.

If Eda who is de facto leader of the YP bloc and Matsuno who is JIP leader but also leads the DPJ bloc are for merger with DPJ looking at the numbers they can make it happen.  I am sure the PLP bloc will be fine with that too since PLP is just a DPJ splinter.

The result of the JIP split based on background of MPs are

6 Upper House MPs join ORA, 5 stay in JIP

13 Lower House MPs join ORA, 6 became independents, 21 stay in JIP


                   Upper House              Lower House
PGOR                  1                                1             -> both joins ORA
YP (LDP back)      3                                2             -> 1 independent, 4 JIP
YP (DPJ back)                                        2              -> both stay in JIP
YP                      3                                 5             -> 1 independent, 7 JIP 
Osaka                 2                               11            -> all 13 join ORA
LDP                                                      4              -> 3 independent, 1 JIP
DPJ                     1                                8             -> 1 join ORA, 1 independent, 7 JIP
PLP                                                       4             -> all 4 stay in JIP
SPJ                     1                                3             -> 2 join ORA, 1 independent, 1 JIP

It seems that the PGOR background MPs which view the JCP as their main enemy did not want to stay in JIP since an JIP-JCP tactical alliance is possible.  As expected, all Osaka based MPs went to ORA.  It seems LDP background MPs (either through YP or not) did not want to join ORA but were not comfortable with DPJ-JIP alliance so many of them became independent.   I suspect many of them will try to get back into LDP.    Those with PLP, DPJ and YP background all things equal stayed in JIP.  SPJ background MPs went to ORA but one stayed in JIP and one became an independent.  A DPJ background MP did join ORA but he was from 兵庫県 (Hyōgo Prefecture) which is in Kinki region although not Osaka so I suspect he joined given the strength of the ORA in that prefecture. 

[jaichind]

Today is Hashimoto last day as Osaka mayor and as a result he has exited from Osaka politics.  He is still an adviser to ORA but in theory is out of politics.  I suspect he will resurface soon in national politics. I am not sure in what form but most likely as an ally of Abe.

ORA did say that they will run candidates in all prefectures that are in Kinki in next year's Upper House elections.  It is not clear if ORA will be viable outside Kinki. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

With LDP-KP support coming back up, DPJ and JIP mired in internal splits out opposition alliance strategy, and ORA splitting the opposition vote, it seems that LDP-KP is set to cruise to a large victory in a double election in the summer of 2016 and get the majority and mandate it needs to remove Clause 9 of the Constitution which binds Japan not to use military force.

Or, alternatively, get its attempt to do so stymied in the ensuing referendum.

In any case any hawkish-but-otherwise-reasonable types who think Abe will content himself with just redacting Article 9 are kidding themselves. Abe is a hard-nationalist true believer for reasons that are deeply personal to him. The 'accomplishment and legacy' he wants is a regime.

[jaichind]

With LDP-KP support coming back up, DPJ and JIP mired in internal splits out opposition alliance strategy, and ORA splitting the opposition vote, it seems that LDP-KP is set to cruise to a large victory in a double election in the summer of 2016 and get the majority and mandate it needs to remove Clause 9 of the Constitution which binds Japan not to use military force.

Or, alternatively, get its attempt to do so stymied in the ensuing referendum.

In any case any hawkish-but-otherwise-reasonable types who think Abe will content himself with just redacting Article 9 are kidding themselves. Abe is a hard-nationalist true believer for reasons that are deeply personal to him. The 'accomplishment and legacy' he wants is a regime.

You might very well be right.  But Abe keeps on pulling of what I consider the impossible so now nothing will surprise me what he will managed to accomplish given how divided and incompetent his ideological enemies are.

[jaichind]

It seems the 6 ex-JIP MPs that quit JIP but did not join ORA will from a grouping called 改革結集の会 which translates into Association of Reform Grouping.  I will end up calling them ARG since there does not seem to be an official English name for this group.  Yet another Center-Right opposition splinter group in addition to AEJ, PFG, TCJ (Tax Cuts Japan), and NRP (New Renaissance Party.)  I am pretty sure this camp will go nowhere as well just like the others.

Only way out is for all these parties to merge into larger Rightest opposition bloc.  Of course this bloc will be fighting with ORA for the same bloc of votes.  

[jaichind]

I figured it is time to update my projections for the 2016 Upper House elections based on the JIP-ORA split.   My model has both JIP and ORA hurt from their civil war and split with some of the original JIP vote going to LDP and DPJ.  ORA will attract AEJ and PFG which makes both parties non-entities.  I also make the optimistic (for DPJ) assumption that they will pull off tactical alliances with JIP and JCP in competitive single member districts.  I also assume that DPJ and NPD make a deal where NPD run for the second Hokkaido seat and NPD backs DPJ in the PR vote.  ORA I assume will run in all Kinki districts but mostly nowhere else.  KP will lose a bit of support from its dovish base due to its support of security bills.  
 

                                               My Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3             LDP DPJ NPD    (Tactical JIP-JCP support for DPJ-NPD defeats LDP-KP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP         (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance for PLP for a PLP lock in victory)
宮城   Miyagi               1             LDP        (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance could make it close)
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             LDP                                
福島   Fukushima       1             DPJ          (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)                          
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DPJ                            
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1             LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DPJ                      
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DPJ                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4              LDP KP DPJ JCP    (JIP AEJ tactical alliance might take JCP one)            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP         (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance could make it close)
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DPJ JCP DPJ  (JIP AEJ tactical alliance might take DPJ one)
新潟   Niigata             1             LDP                                  
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DPJ       (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)                          
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPJ                            
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP DPJ JCP                
三重   Mie                   1             DPJ        (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)                          
滋賀   Shiga                1             DPJ        (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ as ORA split LDP
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP JCP    (DPJ-JIP might back JCP to beat back ORA for second seat)
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA JCP                  
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP ORA (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance might take a KP seat)      
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1             LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             DPJ          (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance gives it to DPJ)    
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DPJ    (ORA might run here but with JIP backing DPJ, DPJ wins)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DPJ                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             LDP       (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance could make it close)        
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             OSMP    (Tactical DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance backing OSMP defeats LDP-ORA)      

This along with PR section gives us

          Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       31.5%          16               39                       55
KP         13.5%            7                7                        14
DPJ        23.0%          11              18                       29
SDP        2.5%             1                0                         1
PLP         2.0%             1                1                         2
JIP          4.0%             2                0                         2
ORA        8.0%             4                2                         6
FPG        0.75%           0                0                         0
JCP       13.0%             6                4                       10
AEJ         0.75%          0                 0                        0
NPD                                               1                        1
OSMP                                             1                        1

If this is what takes place which is relatively optimistic for DPJ we then add the seats up for reelection in 2019 we have

            2016         2019            Total
LDP        55            65                120
KP          14            11                  25
DPJ        29             17                 46
SDP         1               2                   3
PLP          2              1                   3
JIP           2              1                   3
ORA         6              5                 11
PFG         0              3                    3
JCP        10              8                  18
AEJ          0              4                   4
NPD         1              0                   1
NPR         0              1                   1
OSMP       1              1                   2
Ind          0              3                   3

Independents are all hawkish ex-YP or ex-PFG MPs.  If we group the post 2016 election results MPs by hawks and doves we have Hawks at 167 and Doves at 75 which is 69%-31%.  As long as Abe can get AEJ-PFG-hawkish independents, KP, and ORA all in one broad alliance, he will get the 2/3 majority for Constitutional change even if DPJ manages to pull off a bunch of tactical alliances.  Only way this can be avoided is if somehow turnout surges in 2016 elections where latent DPJ voters come out to vote against LDP-KP.  Right now this does not seem likely.

[jaichind]

週刊現代 (Shūkan Gendai) came out with its projections of 2016 double election.  It makes the assumption that DPJ infighting will prevent a viable alliance with JIP nor JCP.  It also assumes that the double election will stretch the resources of the opposition parities.  The result they project is a tidal wave  victory for LDP-KP.

It projects the Total Upper House seat distribution after 2016 Upper House elections

LDP   127
KP       26
DPJ     42
JIP        5
JCP     13
ORA    10
AEJ       3
SDP      2
PLP       3
PFG      3
Others  1
Indep.   7





It also projects Lower House totals in a double elections to be

LDP       323
KP          34
DPJ        49
JIP         18
JCP        20
ORA       20
SDP         2
PLP          2
Others     7

If these were the results then Abe for sure will have the mandate to change the Constitution.   How the referendum goes after that will depend on the nature of the Constitutional change and how Abe sells it.

[jaichind]

DPJ, JIP, SDP, and JCP have agreed that in 2016 Upper House single district seat  of 熊本(Kumamoto) which is a LDP stronghold, they will jointly back the DPJ candidate as the JCP withdrew its candidate.  The extreme left SDP splinter NSP will also join this alliance.   Had this alliance been formed when the seat is a open seat and a less pro-LDP environment it might have a chance to win.  But with a popular LDP incumbent running this alliance will just make the race a bit closer but will not have any real chance of winning.  A similar alliance in more marginal seats could have a much bigger impact.

[jaichind]

A bit late, but a funny picture from the Osaka mayor/governor elections where LDP DPJ and JCP had a joint rally.  The joint rally featured leaders from all 3 parties and the picture labeled them according to party.  自民 for LDP, 民主 for DPJ, and 共産 for JCP.



This is part of the failed Osaka everyone gang up on Hashimoto.