Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

The battle between Abe and Okinawa governor Onaga Takesh (翁長雄志) continues over the US Futenma base relocation.  Talks between the central government and the Okinawa government broke down Sept 9th and right after Abe was re-elected unopposed as LDP President, the Abe cabinet announced it was going ahead with work on the USA base relocation effort. NHK reports that Onaga plan to announce today his intention to cancel permit his predecessor granted that allows U.S. relocation of Futenma base.  This represents another level of escalation.

[jaichind]

A bunch of polls came out on Abe Cabinet approval.  It was a mixed bag but overall it shows that Abe approval did recover but the assent is petering out in the low 40s.    Again, focus on the purple line for the psudo-RCP like average.



NHK also came out with party support for Sept.  LDP-KP gained around a point.

LDP        34.7
DPJ          9.8
KP           3.7
JIP           1.3
JCP          4.0
PFG         0.1
SDP         0.6
PLP          0.2
AEJ          0.0




Again, rule of thumb is LDP+KP will get if election is called NHK vote share plus about 2% right before the election.  So NHK LDP+KP = 38.4%.  Since this is not election season so the polls are less polorized it is more reasonable to add 4%-5% which would put it at 43%.  The rule of thumb for NHK for DPJ is to perform a about double of NHK support.  So DPJ should be around 20% of an election is taking place today.

[jaichind]

Security bills close to being passed.  LDP-KP made a deal with AEJ to make some adjustments which got AEJ support for the security bills.  DPJ-JIP-PLP-SDP-JCP last move is to move a motion of no confidence for Abe to delay the bill being passed.  This vote will test which MPs of the JIP will go with Hashimoto or stay in JIP and onward to alliance or merger with DPJ.

[jaichind]

Security bill passes Upper House 148 vs 90.  It seems that LDP KP AEJ PFG NPR MP voted yes for the bill while DPJ JIP JCP SDP PLP MPs voted no.  It seems that all JIP MPs followed the whip and voted NO or abstained even as some of them will most likely end up defecting to Hashimoto's new party.

[Cubby]

I've been a DPJ fanboy for years but their opposition to this bill is unacceptable. Its not 1951 anymore, and the sooner they realize that, the better.

Did they only vote no because the current bill is so unpopular? I seem to recall them wanting to assist the US militarily during their brief, glorious reign from 2009-2012.

The LDP still sucks though.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

DPJ fanboy

what

[Cubby]

DPJ fanboy

what

It was a joke.

I should have said I have a raging clue for the DPJ.

[jaichind]

After the security bills passed the Abe cabinet approval ratings are falling again.

Kyodo News poll has 38.9/50.2
Mainichi News poll has 35/50
Yomiuri News poll has 41/51
Ashai News poll has 35/45
Nikkei News poll has 40/47

All these polls are about -3 to -5 in terms of approval of Abe Cabinet from the previous poll

All questions on support for the security law seems to have support around the low to mid 30s.

[jaichind]

Running average of Abe Cabinet approval once all these post-security law passage polls are taken into account.  The 70 anniversary of WWII Abe speech bounce seems to have dissipated for the obvious reason that the new security bill and now law took center stage again.

[jaichind]

The passage of the new security law seems to have triggered a change in strategy in the JCP which could trigger a significant realignment in the nature of party competition in Japan.   In the Central Committee meeting of the JCP yesterday it seems a resolution was passed to pursue JCP-DPJ cooperation for the goal of repealing of the new security laws up to and including electoral alliance on a broad basis versus a rare and localized basis depending on local conditions. 

[jaichind]

The passage of the new security law seems to have triggered a change in strategy in the JCP which could trigger a significant realignment in the nature of party competition in Japan.   In the Central Committee meeting of the JCP yesterday it seems a resolution was passed to pursue JCP-DPJ cooperation for the goal of repealing of the new security laws up to and including electoral alliance on a broad basis versus a rare and localized basis depending on local conditions. 

DPJ leader Okada Katsuya (岡田 克也) responded positively to the JCP proposal for electoral cooperation and possible alliance to defeat the ruling alliance.   Okada pointed that in the 2009 elections the JCP only contested 152 out of 300 FPTP seats which greatly helped the DPJ.  While I totally agree that DPJ-JCP alliance in single member FPTP seats in Lower and Upper House elections would be quite a game changer, I would dispute the impact of JCP running in only 152 seats in 2009 as opposed to its usual practice of running in every seat.  Looking district by district in the 2009 Lower House elections, and even taking into account some JCP tactical voting seats that JCP, the DPJ led alliance only won an extra 21 FPTP seats as a result of non-JCP or unusually low JCP participation.  But in 2009 out of the 300 FPTP seats the DPJ led alliance won 228 seats versus 64 for LDP-KP-NPR.  So even if we shifted these 21 seats from the DPJ alliance to LDP-KP-NPR the DPJ led alliance would have still won a large majority.  In 2009 the Japanese electorate was determined to throw out LDP come hell or high heaven.  What the JCP did only added to a rout.   

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

japan has apparently banned public universities from teaching social sciences, humanities, and law…?

[politicus]

japan has apparently banned public universities from teaching social sciences, humanities, and law…?

WTF.. sounds crazy. Must be a little more complicated than that. They gotta at least keep producing recruits for their legal system.

[Simfan34]

I can't help but feel like whoever wrote that article is missing part of the story. All of the top universities in Japan, to say nothing of universities in general, are public. So they are supposed to stop teaching economics, law, political science...? I get this they want more people to major in math and the hard sciences, as does practically every other country, but this is the kind of policy response you'd expect from an incompetent third-world government, not Japan. I mean, seriously, where do they expect to get lawyers or economists from, at the very least?

There has to be something pretty big that we're missing here.

[MaxQue]

japan has apparently banned public universities from teaching social sciences, humanities, and law…?

The Time article is clearer.

It's not a ban, it's rather a request than universities were free to follow. Of the 60 universities, 34 totally refuse any changes (including the 2 most prestigious), 17 abolish those programs, 9 will abolish elective courses in those programs to force students to take "more practical" electives.

http://time.com/4035819/japan-university-liberal-arts-humanities-social-sciences-cuts/

[jaichind]

For the 11/22 Osaka city mayor and Osaka prefecture governor races, ORA will nominate current JIP MP Yoshimura Hirofumi (吉村洋文) for mayor and re-nominate current governor Matsui Ichirō (松井一郎).  Matsui had said he will not run for re-election due to defeat in the Osaka merger referendum but now it seems he will run for re-election.   I guess Hashimoto will also not honor his promise to retire from politics.  Most likely Hashimoto will go national and run in the 2016 Upper House election leading his new national party based on ORA.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

japan has apparently banned public universities from teaching social sciences, humanities, and law…?

The Time article is clearer.

It's not a ban, it's rather a request than universities were free to follow. Of the 60 universities, 34 totally refuse any changes (including the 2 most prestigious), 17 abolish those programs, 9 will abolish elective courses in those programs to force students to take "more practical" electives.

http://time.com/4035819/japan-university-liberal-arts-humanities-social-sciences-cuts/

well, that's somewhat of a relief

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

japan has apparently banned public universities from teaching social sciences, humanities, and law…?

The Time article is clearer.

It's not a ban, it's rather a request than universities were free to follow. Of the 60 universities, 34 totally refuse any changes (including the 2 most prestigious), 17 abolish those programs, 9 will abolish elective courses in those programs to force students to take "more practical" electives.

http://time.com/4035819/japan-university-liberal-arts-humanities-social-sciences-cuts/

well, that's somewhat of a relief

It's still sickening.

[jaichind]

Looks like we are getting close to the end of FPG.  Both FPG founder and ex-leader  Hiranuma Takeo (平沼赳夫) and FPG heavyweight Sonoda Hiroyuki (園田博之) who recently left FPG to lead a revived Sunrise Party only to merge it back into FPG again will both leave FPG, most likely both back top LDP.  These two PFG members were the only FPG MPs that won their own districts in the 2014 Lower House elections.  This leaves PFG with only 5 MPs, all in the Upper House.  2 of them will be up for re-election in 2016 and PFG can win 1 seat on PR at most.  So after that PFG will not have enough members to form a Parliamentary Caucus which comes with it government subsidies.   Seeing this I suspect FPG members will most likely merge the party with LDP of perhaps AEJ or just disband and go their separate  ways to LDP or AEJ.

[jaichind]

Some interesting facts and background of heavyweight MP from Kumamoto Prefecture (熊本) Sonoda Hiroyuki (園田博之) who recently left FPG to rejoin LDP.  

Sonoda is the son of one Sonoda Sunao (園田直) who was first elected from Kumamoto in 1947 and was re-elected every election up to 1983.  Sonoda senior died in 1984.   Sonoda junior then ran for his father's seat and won but had to face his own stepmother Sonoda Tenkōkō (園田天光光) and defeated her in a 5 member district race.  Sonoda Tenkōkō was called Matsutani Tenkōkō (松谷天光光) and was also elected in 1947 in Tokyo as a Socialist.  While in the diet she had an affair with the married Sonoda senior and got pregnant.  Sonada senior then divorced his wife and  mother of Sonoda Hiroyuki and married Matsutani which was one of the great scandals of the Japanese diet in the late 1940s.  Sonoda Tenkōkō  was the first MP to give birth while being a MP.  Sonoda Tenkōkō then had a shift in political views and joined the right wing Progressive Party of her husband but lost reelection in Tokyo in 1952.  She tried in 1953 1955 and 1958 to get elected in Tokyo as a center-right candidate and failed in center-left Tokyo.  After that she shifted her effort to helping her husband in Kumamoto.  When Sonoda senior died in 1984 both she and her stepson Sonoda Hiroyuki claimed the mantel of Sonoda senior.  LDP high command was neutral so both ran as independents, but several powerful LDP factions backed Sonoda Hiroyuki who won in this famous political family fued.   Sonoda Tenkōkō  only passed away in early 2015 at age 96.  While she was a feminist Socialist fire-band in the 1940s toward the 1980s she has moved to extreme right and was very connected to the highly revisionist Nihon Kaigi (日本会議).  

 As for Sonoda junior he was part of the 1993 rebellion against LDP by joining NPS (New Party Sakigake) and was able to win in 1996 as a NPS candidate.  He rejoined LDP in 1998.  Then in 2010 he joined the extreme right LDP splinter SPJ (Sunrise Party of Japan) of Hiranuma Takeo (平沼 赳夫) before joining JRP as part of merger of SPJ into JRP.  He then joined the split of FPG from JRP in 2014 before leaving for a few months to try to revive SPJ and then coming back to FPG.  Now he has rejoined LDP.  It seems that Sonada junior never made up with his stepmother even as both share the same extreme right revisionist beliefs.

[jaichind]

Now that diet session is over there are efforts for party alliance realignment.  DPJ and JIP are trying to work out a common manifesto for 2016 Upper House elections with an eye perhaps on a merger that also includes PLP and SDP.  JCP is proposing an all Japan alliance with DPJ and JIP and for a post election united front government.  On the hawk side, there are talk that PGP, AEJ and the Hashimoto party, once it forms, forms an rightist hawkish alliance that can act as an alliance partner for LDP.  Abe seems keen on such an alliance as there is fear that KP might lose support in 2016 Upper House elections as its MPs voted for the new security law even as the KP base grassroots seems negative on the new laws.   

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wait the PLP? They're inviting freaking Ichiro Ozawa back? Lmao

[jaichind]

Wait the PLP? They're inviting freaking Ichiro Ozawa back? Lmao

It is more the JIP guys are pushing it.  JIP wants all 4 parties (DPJ JIP SDP and PLP) to dissolve and merge into a new party.  DPJ wants the rest of them to merge into DPJ which could but does not have to include PLP.   

[Vega]

Wait the PLP? They're inviting freaking Ichiro Ozawa back? Lmao

It is more the JIP guys are pushing it.  JIP wants all 4 parties (DPJ JIP SDP and PLP) to dissolve and merge into a new party.  DPJ wants the rest of them to merge into DPJ which could but does not have to include PLP.   

The DPJ would be stupid to dissolve. They've lasted a long time (by Japanese political party standards).

[jaichind]

Looks like Hashimoto's new national party will be called Osaka Restoration Association which will focus on Osaka.  So again not sure how national this party really is.  Hashimoto insist that Osaka being in the name is a symbol of the new party's desire to push for regional autonomy and regulation.  The new party will push for direct election of PM.  It seems that Osaka governor Matsui will lead the party and will run for reelection Nov 22 along with Upper House JIP MP Katayama Toranosuke (片山 虎之助) who as I mentioned before has a FPG background .  Also as mentioned before JIP MP Yoshimura will run for mayor for ORA on the same day.  Everything depends on winning both races.  As expected at the national level this new party will be pro-Abe when it comes to foreign policy issues.

Hashimoto denounced the current JIP as a "fake" but did reconfirm that he will retire from politics but I am pretty sure no one believes him on this one.