Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

One of the reason I do not even bother posting the name of the JCP candidate is because since in almost all elections the JCP candidate cannot win anyway but can always get the core JCP vote so it always ends up being some JCP drone as the candidate.  It is also interesting that in almost all contests the JCP candidate is always the oldest candidate.  This is because this is Japan where Communists in Japan are more Japanese than Communists.  The candidate selection is based on hierarchy and seniority and not based on being electable or having charisma.  Besides they do not matter since as I mentioned before JCP cannot win anyway and will always get the core JCP vote even if they nominate a rock.  

[jaichind]

Latest result with 93% of the vote counted we have

JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda)  58.8%
LDP backed 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu)   21.2%
JCP guy  14.9%

[jaichind]

Latest result with 98% of the vote counted we have

JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda)  58.6%
LDP backed 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu)   21.3%
JCP guy  15.1%

[jaichind]

One of the reasons why LDP lost so badly is because it broke the convention on prefecture governor elections.  Other than very high profile races (like Tokyo governor) the convention is that if there is a open seat for governor then LDP-KP will back a candidate, DPJ will back a candidate, JCP will back a candidate and the rest of the opposition parties will choose to back the LDP-KP or DPJ candidate.  One of the two mainstream candidates (LDP-KP backed or DPJ backed) will win (the LDP-KP backed candidate one almost all the time) and then when this sitting governor runs for reelection, all parties back the incumbent against the JCP candidate.  Of course this convention is self-serving since incumbents are rarely defeated.  So when the DPJ backed incumbent won an open seat in 2003, he won in 2007 and 2011 with LDP-KP support in addition to all other non-JCP parties as per convention.  LDP decided to break the convention in 2015 and got a bloody nose.  Of course the LDP will claim that the JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda) had passed an ordinance right after he was elected in 2003 that all 埼玉 (Saitama) governors should only stay for 3 terms which is something he is not violating.  Ueda claims that that ordinance was meant as a recommendation and not legally binding on anyone, including himself from running for a 4th term. 

[jaichind]

Manichi poll has

Abe Cabinet approval 32/49

Party support

LDP          28
DPJ            9
JIP             6
KP             4
JCP            4


We also have

Nippon Poll

Abe Cabinet approval 38/47

Latest Japanese version of RCP average of Abe approval is (focus on the solid purple line as the average)


 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, do young voters commonly vote disproportionately for LDP, or is it a peculiarity of this race?

[jaichind]

Wait, do young voters commonly vote disproportionately for LDP, or is it a peculiarity of this race?

No, that is actually a general trend last decade or so. Noticed that JCP was strong in those in the 30s which meant that a decade ago JCP was very strong among those in the 20s.  The reason comes down to youth rebel culture.  Before a decade ago the target of youth rebellion was the LDP conservative consensus.  Now that is being replaced by the liberal pacifist consensus that now dominate academic circles.  Fear of the rise of PRC is of course a source of this shift as well.  The best example of this was the Tokyo Governor election of 2014 where Toshio Tamogami (田母神 俊雄) came out of nowhere to win 12.4% of the vote and exit polls showed that he won 25% of the youth vote in Tokyo.  Tamogami's main position was that Japan did not start the Pacific War which was really provoked by FDR and that the Pacific War was one of Japanese defense and not aggression.  

[jaichind]

Final result

JIP and DPJ backed incumbent 上田清司 (Kiyoshi Ueda)  58.5%
LDP backed 塚田桂祐 (Tsukada KatsuraYu)   21.1%
JCP guy  15.0%

[jaichind]

One thing that is funny about Japanese exit polls is that given the high life expectancy, high turnout among the elderly, low child birth, and low turnout among the youth there is a separate age category for age 80+ in the exit polls.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, do young voters commonly vote disproportionately for LDP, or is it a peculiarity of this race?

No, that is actually a general trend last decade or so. Noticed that JCP was strong in those in the 30s which meant that a decade ago JCP was very strong among those in the 20s.  The reason comes down to youth rebel culture.  Before a decade ago the target of youth rebellion was the LDP conservative consensus.  Now that is being replaced by the liberal pacifist consensus that now dominate academic circles.  Fear of the rise of PRC is of course a source of this shift as well.  The best example of this was the Tokyo Governor election of 2014 where Toshio Tamogami (田母神 俊雄) came out of nowhere to win 12.4% of the vote and exit polls showed that he won 25% of the youth vote in Tokyo.  Tamogami's main position was that Japan did not start the Pacific War which was really provoked by FDR and that the Pacific War was one of Japanese defense and not aggression. 

Well, that's thoroughly depressing.

[jaichind]

Bad news does not stop for Abe.  NHK poll

Abe Approval 37/46 - worst ever for Abe II.




Party support

LDP     34.3
DPJ      10.9
KP         3.0
JIP        2.5
JCP       4.2
FPG      0.2
SDP      0.7




LDP+KP at 37.3.  Rule of thumb for NHK polls that LDP+KP PR vote share wll be around 2% higher than what they collectively poll in NHK.  Given that this is not election season I would add something like 4%-5%.  But that leaves LDP+KP at around 42%, enough for a solid majority in 2016 Upper House elections but nowhere what Abe needs.  And if the opposition unites even this number might make LDP+KP struggle to do well.  Only consolation is that JCP wil also do well and split the anti-LDP vote.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do jCP refuse to work with other parties under all circumstances like, say, KkE?

[jaichind]

Do jCP refuse to work with other parties under all circumstances like, say, KkE?

Pretty much.  With the exception of Okinawa where the anti-LDP forces tend to be more left wing than Mainland Japan.  When the JCP leadership is asked by the media on why they are doing this which seems to only benefit LDP they response is "not true, look at Okinawa" which is in theory true but that is 4 Lower House seats out of 275.  What about the other 271 seats? 

[Vega]

Off topic, but it's odd how the LDP is shown in red, while the DPJ shown in blue, despite their logo. Is this standard?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Off topic, but it's odd how the LDP is shown in red, while the DPJ shown in blue, despite their logo. Is this standard?

No. It's more common to show the DPJ in red or pink and the LDP in green.

[jaichind]

Abe gave a much anticipated speech on the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender.  While he used various "right words" from diplomatic point of view "aggression" "apology" etc etc.  The consensus was that he just re-used the same words that previous Japanese PMs have used and from a diplomatic point of view did not achieve the goal of improving Abe's relations with PRC and ROK.  He also hinted that this ritual of Japanese apologies should stop as to not burden future generations of Japanese people and leaders.  I tend to agree with Abe for I am sure totally different reasons he has. It is time to move on and stop beating this dead horse.   

For me the core but unsaid issue from the Japanese point of view is "The war was a bad idea not because of the atrocities of which Japan is just like every other imperial power but it was the wrong war as it was a war Japan could not win."  Hence "it is an unfair humiliation for Japan to have to apologize to the Chinese and Koreans since it was the USA that defeated Japan and on the battlefield Japan was undefeated by the Chinese."  So "apologize to USA for Battaan Death March Yes, but comfort women No especially now our fears that PRC will become the dominate East Asian power will destroy our self-delusions that we remain undefeated as a Asian power."  These Japanese right could not say it but that is how they really feel inside and frankly I can see their point of view. 

Of course on the flip side the unsaid issue from the us Chinese point of view which is the mirror image "We need the Japanese to go above and beyond to apologize to make up for our own feelings of inadequacies going from being a top power to a third rate power over the last few centuries"   "We know we did not really beat the Japanese, a historically a power that is a tier below China, so it is even more critical that Japanese apologize extra to make up for that."  Of course no Chinese leader (PRC or ROC) will say this but this what is going on inside. 

So this latent conflict could not be solved with more or less apologies.

One other thing that is funny about this entire affair is the position of the Japanese Imperial family.  Even though Abe and the Japanese Right is trying to push a historical revisionist line to promote the power of the Japanese Emperor as a symbol and force to mobilize Japan into a Great Power, the Japanese Imperial family does not seem to want any part of it.  Both Emperor Akihito and Crown Prince Naruhito has made it quite known they are very much against what Abe is trying to do.  It is well known that the Imperial family and Abe does not get along on many topics, especially this one.  It is funny how in the world of Japanese culture of subtleties that the way Akihito  does this is go and give speeches about the need for embracing “correct” history.  Of course one then has to ask who is pushing an "incorrect" history?  It is clear who he is referring to. 

[Simfan34]

Yes, it was quite amusing to see the look on the Emperor's face when they held that "Sovereignty Restoration Day" Event last year, when the whole audience, Abe included, were Banzai-ing him. It was clear he was embarrassed and slightly uncomfortable with the whole display. However while the Crown Prince may share the father's views, but I've read that Prince Akishino tends to be more favorable to revisionist perspectives... and is second in line on top of his son and all.

It's surprised me with all this talk about constitutional revision that nothing's been said, aside from talk about making the Emperor formal head of state (FF), about improving the status of the Imperial Family in practical terms-- like allowing women to remain Princesses after marriage, which is a more serious issue than one might think, because the Geihinkan (Imperial Household Agency) is run by over-controlling ultraconservative ex-aristocrats who completely run the Imperial Family's lives. Hence ex-Princesses are completely cut off from their families, and commoner consorts looked down upon (even if a commoner are the only possible choice, considering the aristocracy and cadet branches were abolished in 1945) and mistreated severely enough to cause mental breakdown, as first happened to Empress Michiko and then more dramatically to Crown Princess Masako. I'd hope the Geihinkan would be reformed, for the sake of the Imperial Family.

It appears that many nationalists genuinely see the Emperor as more totem or symbol-- an institution, really-- worthy of glorification and reverence rather than an actual person with any personal agency or needs, which was essentially the view articulated by ultra-nationalists like Mishima. It would actually be the fairly logical result of centuries of shogunates where the imperial institution was maintained and honoured but the Emperor essentially irrelevant.

I wonder if any of the drafts propose making the Emperor Commander-in-Chief-- I suspect the Emperor would die of mortification if asked to don a uniform.

[jaichind]

On various Japanese political discussion forums they are already posting predictions/projections of 2016 Upper House elections.  I tried to post there but was blocked since my IP is outside of Japan which makes it annoying as I would like to participate in those discussion as well.  Oh well.  Anyway I will first post what I think the medium/consensus of the PR vote/seats will look like on those sites.  It seems among Japanese political junkies they seem to predict a revival of LDP fortunes as well as a massive JCP surge.  I predict a lack of LDP recovery plus a more muted JCP surge.  Note that I put AEJ as the successor party to YP.  JRP of 2013 broke up with FPG being split out with a part of YP merging into JIP.

                  2013 results       Japanese political           My prediction
                                             forum consensus
                  vote     seat            vote      seat             vote      seat
LDP           34.7%    18           31.5%      16             28.0%    14
KP             14.2%      7           14.0%        7             14.0%      7
DPJ            13.4%     7           17.0%        8              20.0%    10
JRP/JIP      11.9%     6            13.5%        7             15.0%      7
PFG                                         2.5%         1               2.5%      1
YP/AEJ         8.9%     4            1.5%         0               1.5%     0
JCP              9.7%     5           14.5%        7             13.5%     7
PLP             1.8%      0             2.0%       1                2.0%     1
SDP             2.4%     1             2.5%       1                2.5%     1

Many predictions even has JCP at 8 seats which would mean something like 16% of the vote.  The Japanese political junkie consensus seems to be that polarization around Abe will benefit JCP which in turn will really benefit LDP-KP since DPJ and JIP will be squeezed out.  

I will soon post what the consensus in the FPTP seats relative to my predictions.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's surprised me with all this talk about constitutional revision that nothing's been said, aside from talk about making the Emperor formal head of state (FF), about improving the status of the Imperial Family in practical terms-- like allowing women to remain Princesses after marriage, which is a more serious issue than one might think because the Gehinkan (Imperial Household Agency) is run by overcontrolling ultraconservative ex-aristocrats who completely run the Imperial Family's lives. Hence ex-Princesses are completely cut off from their families. I'd hope the Gehinkan would be reformed.

You can probably guess my views on things like this and the succession controversy pretty easily, so yeah, I'm entirely in agreement with this. If Abe ever felt like touching these issues I think he might actually do some good in terms of the position that the Imperial Family holds in Japanese life. He could make it more responsive and more closely tied to the nation without going fully down the British-style 'tabloid fodder' route. But he doesn't seem interested in that, or in the Imperial Family as people at all really. His attitude towards them is object-fetishist; it's practically obscene at times.

[Vega]

Abe could most likely find some supporters if he were to try to reform the Imperial family. Shame he seems adverse to doing popular things lately, though.

[jaichind]

Abe's speech on the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender plus the external criticism of the speech had a rallying affect on his approval rating.  We will see how long this lasts 

[jaichind]

Election for Morioka (盛岡市) mayor this weekend.   Morioka, city of about 300K, is the capital of Iwate Prefecture (岩手県).   Iwate is pretty much the most anti-LDP prefecture with the possible exception of Okinawa.  The incumbent Tanifuji Hiroaki (谷藤裕明) is backed by LDP-KP and first won in 2003 beating the DPJ-SDP candidate.  As is the convention in 2007 the non-JCP parties did not nominate a candidate with Tanifuji easily beating the JCP backed candidate.  In 2011 in the aftermath of the earthquake the JCP did not nominate a candidate so Tanifuji won unopposed.  In the sprite of opposition cooperation this time around DPJ and PLP will nominate Uchidate Shigeru (内舘茂) to try to beat the LDP-KP and in a rare act, the JCP did not nominate a candidate to give the anti-LDP opposition a chance to beat the incumbent.    History and convention says that Tanifuji should have the upper hand.  On the other hand Iwate is fairly pro-DPJ/PLP territory plus the JCP will not run a candidate.  So this election this weekend will be another bellwether on the level of anti-incumbent opposition to Abe/LDP as well as the effectiveness of opposition unity.   

[jaichind]

Comparison between my 2016 Upper house district seat versus Japanese political discussion board consensus.  

                                                Consensus                 My Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3             LDP DPJ NPD                     same
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  same
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP                                   same
宮城   Miyagi               1             LDP                                  same
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  same
山形   Yamagata         1             LDP                                  same
福島   Fukushima       1             LDP                                  DPJ (tossup but I went with DPJ)
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DPJ                            same
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  same
群馬   Gunma            1             LDP                                  same
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DPJ                       same
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DPJ                     same
神奈川Kanagawa       4            LDP KP DPJ JCP                  same
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP                                  same
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DPJ DPJ JCP    LDP LDP KP DPJ JCP JIP
新潟   Niigata             1             LDP                                  same
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  same
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  same
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  same
長野   Nagano             1             LDP                                  same
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  same
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPJ                            same
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP JK DPJ JCP                  LDP KP DPJ DPJ
三重   Mie                   1             DPJ                                   same
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP                                  DPJ
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP JCP                            same
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP JIP JCP                  same
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP JIP                        same
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  same
和歌山Wakayama       1             LDP                                  same
鳥取 Tottori                 
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                  same
岡山   Okayama          1             DPJ                                   same
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP JIP                             LDP DPJ
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  same
徳島   Tokushima   
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  same
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  same
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  same
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DPJ                       same
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  same
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                 same
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                 same
大分   Ōita                  1             LDP                                  same (tossup but I went with LDP)
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  same
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  same
沖縄   Okinawa           1             anti-LDP independent       same


My assumptions are

a) In Hokkaido DPJ and NPD work out a deal
b) JIP does not run in 1-seater and support DPJ even thought some JIP votes will go LDP but JIP will run in 2- 3- 4- and 6- seaters.
c) The old but popular DPJ incumbent in Okayama will run for reelection
d) The old but popular DPJ incumbent in Yamanashi will not run for reelection or else it will be a tossup between DPJ and LDP
e) AEJ and other post-YP parities/indpendents will run in places like Kanagawa, Chiba, and Tokyo where they have incumbents but no more then that.
f) Alliance between DPJ, PLP and SDP in district seats.
g) Grand anti-LDP alliance which includes JCP in Okinawa
i) PFG will mostly focus on PR seat and perhaps run in places like Tokyo but mostly stays out of district seats

There was no real consensus for Tokyo in the Japanese political discussion boards.  Everyone including me agree that out of 6, 5 of them will be LDP LDP KP DPJ JCP.  It is the last seat where people are split between DPJ AEJ or JIP.  AEJ and JIP share a significant base in Tokyo.  It really come down to if AEJ and JIP split this non-DPJ non-LDP/KP vote bloc evenly where DPJ will get in or will it break for one of the two in which case one of them will get in.  My guess is the JIP candidate will break in to the 6th.

There are strong minorities on the discussion boards that feel that JCP wil capture the 3rd Hokkaido
seat from DPJ backed NPD as well as the 3rd Saitama seat from DPJ.  Both seems unlikely to me given the size of the JCP base even as I agree that this base is most likely larger than 2014.

Most people in the Japanese discussion boards think that JIP will win the second Hiroshima seat and I do not see how that can happen.  The DPJ has an incumbent running and the DPJ base is larger than the JIP base.

I also feel that in Shiga, Fukushima, and Ōita the LDP is overestimated by the discussion boards and that DPJ have very strong chances to win in all 3, especially the first two.  Of course in Shiga JIP is strong as well so of course DPJ chances there are sunk if JIP runs a candidate.  

Likewise the Japanese discussion boards thinks that in the old DPJ heartland of Aichi the JCP will take the 4th seat from DPJ most based on perhaps SDP or TCJ (Tax Cuts Japan which is a Aichi DPJ local splinter party) splitting the DPJ base as well as poor vote allocation by DPJ.  I say that is true but the JIP candidate in Aichi will most likely be weak and while some JIP votes will go LDP others will go DPJ so DPJ takes the 4th seat.

Anyway a comparison between my projection of 2015 Upper House elections and the Japanese discussion board consensus are:


              Consensus
            PR             District        Total
LDP      16               43              59
KP         7                 7               14
DPJ       8                12              20
SDP      1                                    1
PLP       1                  1                2
JIP        7                  3              10
PFG      1                                    1
JCP       7                  5              12
AEJ                                            0
NPD                         1                1
Other                      1                 1
           48              73             121


Whereas I have

            PR             District        Total
LDP      14               41              55
KP         7                 7               14
DPJ      10                15              25
SDP       1                                    1
PLP        1                  1               2
JIP        7                  3              10
PFG       1                                    1
JCP        7                 4              11
AEJ                                            0
NPD                         1                1
Other                      1                 1
           48              73             121

[jaichind]

The next set of electoral battles in Japan will center around Iwate (岩手).  The one of the current 岩手 Upper House MPs elected in 2013 平野達男 announced a few months ago his intention to resign from the Upper Hose to run for 岩手 governor in early September.  平野達男 is an old Ozawa crony being in the Liberal Party then followed Ozawa into DPJ but in 2013 won his seat in a 4 way battle beating the DPJ, LDP and Ozawa backed PLP candidate.   The current 岩手 governor 達増拓也 was elected in 2007 and 2011 with DPJ/Ozawa support.  Earlier it seems that 平野達男 decided to take LDP-KP support to try to unseat 達増拓也.  That seems to have provoked that opposition into a grand alliance to back 達増拓也 which seems to have gotten some JCP support.  With the polls showing a 達増拓也 landslide it seems today 平野達男 dropped out of the race which means that 達増拓也 will pretty much win by default.  We also have the 岩手 prefecture assembly election where DPJ and PLP should capture a majority over LDP-KP.   In October there will be an by-election to fill 平野達男's seat in  岩手 which the LDP-KP seems to be destined to lose as long as the opposition stays united.   In October we also have the 宮城県 and November 福島県 prefecture assembly elections.   In both these races if the drop in LDP support persists, it is possible that LDP-KP might be kept from their majorities in both these prefecture assemblies.  

It seems that Takuya Tasso (達増拓也) is re-elected as governor since no other contender filled candidacy.  The JCP had no plans to nominate a candidate based on a deal with DPJ-PLP to try to beat back a possible LDP-KP backed Tatsuo Hirano (平野達男).  But as I mentioned Tatsuo choose not to contest given how far behind he is in the polls so now Takuya will win by default.  It seems that  Iwate has joined Okinawa where JCP has decided to join in all opposition anti-LDP alliances.  If this takes place in other prefectures the LDP-KP might be in trouble.

[jaichind]

It seems that Takaya Muto (武藤貴也), MP of Shiga (滋賀) 4th district has resigned from LDP due to a shady stock deal scandal.  He refused to resign from Diet. 

This script is typical.  In such cases and to save the party from embarrassment the politician (most of the time it is a LDP one) will resign from the party but often will not resign from the Diet.  Then, if the politician's local support group is still with him he will run as an independent next election and if he wins will rejoin the LDP as the election victory would have cleansed him.

This is the typical election result before the scandal that hits a LDP MP Mr A.

LDP  A        55%
Opposition  35%
JCP            10%

The after the scandal breaks if the candidates support organization controls the local LDP chapter, then the LDP will not nominate a candidate in the next election and de facto back MP A.  The election result would be

Ind A        50%
Opposition 40%
JCP           10%

But most of the time the district will have several LDP factions so Mr A will not control the LDP branch in which case the next election will be like

Ind A           30%
LDP             30%
Opposition   30%
JCP             10%

In which place it is anyone's game and in many cases A comes out the winner and he re-joins LDP. Usually MPs like Mr A's support group would cross parties so there will be significant number people in Mr A's support group that usually votes anti-LDP but would vote for A if he ran against LDP.  Likewise there are LDP voters that are anti-A that will vote for A but vote for the LDP candidate in such a re-election situation.

Of course for Takaya it is more complex.  In 2014 Shiga 4th it was

LDP    39
DPJ     26
JIP      26
JCP      9

If the next election Takaya runs for re-election as an independent and the anti-Takaya faction of the LDP nominate their official LDP candidate, the JIP and DPJ might forgo an alliance seeing a chance for themselves to win even if their vote is split.  It will become a 4 way shootout.  Most likely Takaya will end up winning especially when this district is fairly local to Takaya's family.  Takaya's father Mineichi Iwanaga (岩永峯一) was a MP in this district for many years and have a very solid support group/base.