Japan General Discussion

[Famous Mortimer]

Eh, I still think it's cool.

[Simfan34]

Food for thought,,

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24822-japans-ageing-population-could-actually-be-good-news.html#.VINHmXtFqJ8

Personally I think a declining population is a blessing, it is only a matter of using the options it provides wisely and limiting the negatives. As with so many other challenges its a matter of prudent management, but Japanese politicians are terrible at thinking out of the box.

No, it's not a good thing. No amount of spin can make it a good thing.

You get less pressure on the environment incl. less resource consumption and traffic congestion with a smaller population. Economically they actually get a higher per capita income and the workforce to dependent citizen ratio is the same, just olds and not children. Health care costs are low by world standard due to a healthy lifestyle.

What is this? "Higher per capita income"? Who do you think produces GDP? If there are no children to become workers then how does the ratio stay the same? Why hasn't that ever been observed? Why would this precipitate a healthy lifestyle?

There being no people at all would be great for the environment and for traffic congestion. Do you think there should be no people? What you are saying is absurd.

[Vega]

Bumping this because the $600 exercise election is over, and the hunt we'll be on for a new DPJ leader.

Also, Abe has announced that all members of his cabinet pre-dissolution will be staying on.

[politicus]

Food for thought,,

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24822-japans-ageing-population-could-actually-be-good-news.html#.VINHmXtFqJ8

Personally I think a declining population is a blessing, it is only a matter of using the options it provides wisely and limiting the negatives. As with so many other challenges its a matter of prudent management, but Japanese politicians are terrible at thinking out of the box.

No, it's not a good thing. No amount of spin can make it a good thing.

You get less pressure on the environment incl. less resource consumption and traffic congestion with a smaller population. Economically they actually get a higher per capita income and the workforce to dependent citizen ratio is the same, just olds and not children. Health care costs are low by world standard due to a healthy lifestyle.

What is this? "Higher per capita income"? Who do you think produces GDP? If there are no children to become workers then how does the ratio stay the same? Why hasn't that ever been observed? Why would this precipitate a healthy lifestyle?

There being no people at all would be great for the environment and for traffic congestion. Do you think there should be no people? What you are saying is absurd.

It seems that you didn't read the article before you commented. It is the authors argument based on interviews with researchers, not mine. Some of the claims are counterintuitive, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are wrong.

1) Income is of course produced by the workforce, but the point the article makes is that the ratio of productive citizens to dependents in Japan stays constant, just with fewer children and more olds in that group. In this context it is quite plausible that productivity (due to tech improvement etc.) increases more than the loss due to a shrinking workforce.

2) The article  deals with the current situation in which the worker/dependent ratio is stable. You are right that this seems unlikely long term with a (too) fast shrinking workforce (you would need a more gradual reduction for that). Even if we assume they will still get a worse dependent/workforce ratio long term, the point is that this effect will be smaller than often assumed (given that people have a tendency to forget that olds are not the only dependent group in society). Given the excellent health of Japanese seniors they are also in a better position to postpone retirement age than most Western countries.

2) Japan has a healthy lifestyle (incl. diet) which is why they are better equipped to handle depopulation than most. Health costs don't go through the roof in the same way they would  in the US with a similar population distribution.

3) Of course there should be people in the world, but world population was 2 billion in 1927 and is fast approaching four times that number. Imagine how much more space and natural resources we would have if we were still at that level. Most of our current problems in the world are due to being too many to share limited resources.

4) As said before: In the long run depopulation will come to us all due to individualisation, higher education level and rising living standards (well educated affluent career women don't want lots of kids). It is a scenario we better learn to figure out how to use in a constructive way and it is basically also a necessity in order to achieve a sustainable world.

[Vega]

The Japan Times has a good article on who might succeed Kaieda as leader of the DPJ.

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0001794076

Currently, my money is on Seiji Maehara.

[jaichind]

Post election polls

Kyodo poll.  Approval of Abe Cabinet 46.9%/45.3%. 62.8% of surveyed don’t think Japan economy will improve on Abenomics. 55% do not support Abe's security policies.

[jaichind]

In a widely-watched test of strength, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s candidate for the governorship of Saga Prefecture lost to the candidate promoted by Japan Agriculture (JA), the organization of Japan’s farm cooperatives. The key issue for us is whether this makes it more difficult for Abe to go along with the liberalization measures on farm imports that are indispensable to security an agreement with the US on market access for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement.

In the gubernatorial election in Saga prefecture in western Japan on Sunday, Abe and the LDP put up Keisuke Hiwatashi, a supporter Abe’s efforts to reform the JA-Zenchu system. JA-Zenchu responded by putting up its candidate, Yoshinori Yamaguchi, a conservative former official of the Ministry of Agriculture (MAFF). There were two other candidates. Yamaguchi beat Hiwatashi 182,795 to 143,720 in the voting in Saga, a prefecture on the southwestern main island of Kyushu with a population of about 800,000 people.

Ironically, one of the reasons why LDP was defeated was due to low turnout where the very well organized JA was able to defeat the official LDP candidate.  Back in December one of the main reasons for the LDP-KP landslide was due to low turnout.  This will have an impact on TPP reforms that Abe was hoping to push forward.

While Abe won an overwhelming victory in the December Lower House elections, he has to worry about local elections coming up this April and the Upper House election coming up in July 2016. While the rural vote and JA-Zenchu did not have an outsized role in the LDP’s fortunes in the Lower House election it will have more leverage in the local elections. Moreover, it will have more leverage in the Upper House elections, where 29 mostly-rural single-seat prefectures usually tip the balance to one party or another. Since Abe needs overwhelming majority in both Houses to push his security-related agenda, including setting the stage of eventual Constitutional revision.

According to Jiji Press, an LDP lawmaker backed by farmers warned that the fight over JA-Zenchu reform would certainly affect the series of local elections in April as well as next year's election for the Upper House. Whether that is an accurate assessment or a JA-Zenchu boast in the wake of the Saga victory remains to be seen.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

4.98 trillion yen in the 2015 defence budget. That is 5% of the national budget and the highest share for defence in Japan since the bad times.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Japanese education system's slow but hopefully-inexorable march Shimura Takako-wards continues apace with a new decree from the Ministry of...a variety of things, we'll say Culture for now.

Here's the English Asahi shinbun article. I want to address some of the terms used here, and in order to do that I'll need to reproduce close to the whole thing, so in the hopes that this'll get around the copyright restrictions I'll be using my own translation of the Japanese article, made before I read the English article. They contain the same information, but organized differently.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

1. 性的少数者 seiteki shōsūsha. 'Sexual minorities'--'minorities' as individuals rather than groups since the sha means 'person'; a term for 'minorities' as groups appears later in the article--is what this literally means. This isn't a term that I like very much in English and in a more polished translation I'd be using 'LGBTQ' (the official English version of the article uses 'LGBT'), but with the sentences in this one being the way they are I felt like that would break up the flow of the text.
2. 同性愛者 dōseiaisha. This is the generic, formal Japanese term for somebody who is exclusively or almost exclusively attracted to the same gender. I don't think it has the same undertone of hostility that using 'homosexual' as a noun does these days in English, which is why I translated it 'lesbian and gay' instead; the fact that the word includes the kanji for 'love' as well as that for 'sex' may have something to do with this. In the Asahi Digital version that my subscription is to, this word comes with a pop-up explaining what it means every time it appears. (Admittedly, so do several of the others, but it's particularly noticeable, and alarming honestly, with this one.)
3. 性同一性障害 seidōichiseishōgai. 'Gender Identity Disorder' is the preferred translation of whatever group of people it is that actively works with this term. The legal definition to which the article alludes is apparently more restrictive than the already quite tight DSM definition of gender dysphoria.
4. 両性愛者 ryōseiaisha. This is a calque of the English word 'bisexual' formed by analogy to 同性愛者, which significantly predates it in the Japanese lexicon.
5. （性同一性障害などであることを）隠そうとし (seidōichiseishōgai nado de aru koto wo) kakusō toshi. Literally 'to hide [things like Gender Identity Disorder]'.
6. 性に関して少数派である者 sei ni kan shite shōsūha de aru mono. My translation is literal except for 'find themselves in', which in Japanese is a flat 'are' (not 'are in', just 'are'); since the ha in shōsūha means 'clique, faction, group, party, school, sect' (this is the term for 'minorities' as groups referred to above), 'are' didn't make sense in English, which has a much clearer distinction between singular and plural in terms of subject-verb agreement (as in, in English such a distinction exists).
7. 性分化疾患 seibunkashikkan. 'Disorders of sex development' is the translation supplied by the Japanese Wikipedia page for this term. In English it's a more recent categorization of the types of conditions conventionally referred to as 'intersex'. The literal parsing is something along the lines of 'sexual parts change disease'. Obviously most intersex people would probably object to this characterization.
8. I have no idea what this is and neither version of the article explains it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

BUMP for another update on party standings! Descriptions of parties will be generally based on those that I gave before the election in December, but will be worded differently.

Party standings in the lower house (ruling party in bold, coalition partner in italics):

Liberal Democratic Party (formerly a big-tent party that could be described as Right-Hegelian by people interested in those sorts of terms, currently in the process of being taken over by unreconstructed wingnuttery, denialism, and bigotry): 291
Democratic Party of Japan ('Third Way', big-tent, essentially governed as generic (and incompetent) 'reformists' while in power from 2009 to 2012, until recently led by a former television personality): 72
Japan Innovation Party (Nationalist neoconservative populists who benefit by comparison to the PFG (see below) but suffer by comparison to practically every other party; one is tempted to say 'JIP' stands for 'Japan Independence Party' instead, by analogy to UKIP): 40
Kōmeitō (Nichiren Buddhist, religious conservatives in the Japanese context, center-right, dovish whereas the LDP is in its present form super-hawkish, are the 'thin yellow line' in keeping the LDP from changing the part of the Constitution that renounces war): 35
Japanese Communist Party (Imagine if Enrico Berlinguer were a weedy-looking bespectacled guy who appeared in campaign posters with his dukes up pledging to FIGHT THE CONSUMPTION TAX INCREASE TO PROTECT YOUR LIVELIHOOD): 21
Party for Future Generations (One is tempted to say 'PFG' stands for 'Party for Fascist Goons' instead, by analogy to the fact that they're a party for fascist goons): 2 (which is thankfully one-tenth of their parliamentary party immediately before the election)
People's Life Party (Ozawa Ichirō appreciation life, Ozawa being a long-time power broker and obvious crook now fading into pathetic obscurity; the most left-wing non-Communist party, which is really [Inks]ing sad; the party's full name in Japanese translates to 'The People's Life Party and Yamamoto Tarō and Friends'; Yamamoto is an actor (he played Shōgo in Battle Royale) turned anti-nuclear gadfly member of the House of Councillors): 2
Social Democratic Party ('Third Way' but at least they actually are Third Way, unlike the DPJ): 2
Something called 'Kanagawa Reform for Everyone' (I have no idea what this is) (EDIT: jaichind explains this below): 1

Speaker and Vice-Speaker: 2
Independents: 7

The government now has a notional majority of 328-147 out of 475, counting the Speaker and Vice-Speaker since Japan to the best of my knowledge uses Speaker Denison's rule.

The notional majority was 326-154 before the last general election, when there were five more seats in the chamber.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Japanese Catholic hierarchy expressed serious concerns over the Abe government's nationalism the other week. Internet commenters promptly accused the prelates of being 'leftist activists'.

[jaichind]

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/05/17/national/politics-diplomacy/osaka-referendum-rejects-merger-plan-possibly-ending-hashimotos-political-career/

Osaka referendum rejects merger plan, possibly ending Hashimoto’s political career.  It was defeated 49.6 vs 50.4.

Too bad.  I actually have learned to like Hashimoto at lot more.  Of course it has more to do with the libertarian turn of JIP after its merger with a faction of YP.

This is good news for DPJ as this means it will continue to dominate the opposition space.

[jaichind]

There is a new political force which got created as a part of the 2014 lower house elections.  It is
日本を元気にする会 or The Assembly to Energize Japan.  It is the rump YP that did not join DPJ or JIP but continued after the dissolution of YP.  It is led by 松田公太 (Kota Matsuda) who was a member of YP who has a business background.  This party has some some strength in the Upper House and is an advocate for limited government.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm actually not as sure of the merits and drawbacks of the proposed Osaka merger as I'd like to be, but in any case this result is good in that it contributes to the neutralization of Hashimoto as a political force, although I have to say I agree over the past year or so he has become a little less overwhelmingly objectionable than he once was.

In addition to 'limited government' the Assembly to Energize Japan is also apparently for 'internet freedom' and 'direct democracy'. The combination of these three priorities leads me to the impression that ideologically it might be some sort of weird cross between the American Libertarian Party and M5S.

[jaichind]

There is another YP remnant party, 神奈川みんなの改革, or Kanagawa Your Party of Reform (there seems to be no official English translation) which is a regional party based in Kanagawa.  It is led by 浅尾慶一郎 (Keiichiro Asao), who was the last leader of YP.  He took over leadership of YP after Watanabe stepped down and it was his disagreement with Watanabe over the future of YP during the 2014 election campaign (he was for an alignment with DPJ while Watanabe was for an alignment with LDP.)  It turns out Watanabe lost re-election while Asao won re-election in 2014.  Anyway, he now leads this Kanagawa regional party and he is joined by an former YP member of the Upper House from Kanagawa so this party has 2 MPs in the Japanese Diet.

In the most recent prefecture election for Kanagawa, 神奈川みんなの改革 only won 1 seat out of 105.

[jaichind]

It seems JIP leader Kenji Eda will also resign over the defeat of the Osaka referendum defeat even thought this entire effort is really run by Hashimoto.    Most likely  Yorihisa Matsuno will take over.   Matsuno was a DPJ MP that defected to JRP in 2012.  He holds center-right views and was close to DPJ PM Yukio Hatoyama.  Yukio Hatoyama fall from power within the DPJ was one of the mains reasons why Matsuno went over to JRP.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

That doesn't seem too bad at all, considering. What does 'center-right' mean in a current-JIP context?

[jaichind]

That doesn't seem too bad at all, considering. What does 'center-right' mean in a current-JIP context?

Matsuno seems to take a more revisionist position on the Yasukuni Shrine issue, tougher on the North Korean issue, and opposed to naturalized citizens participation in Japanese politics.   Overall I like  Kenji Eda better mostly because Kenji takes an unambiguous line on the role of free markets and the need for regulatory and labor market reform.   

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

That doesn't seem too bad at all, considering. What does 'center-right' mean in a current-JIP context?

Matsuno seems to take a more revisionist position on the Yasukuni Shrine issue, tougher on the North Korean issue, and opposed to naturalized citizens participation in Japanese politics.

...what in the world is 'center-' about any of that?

[jaichind]

JIP elections Yorihisa Matsuno as leader.  Most likely Matsuno will move JIP toward a closer alliance with DPJ in opposition to LDP.  Kenji tended to position the JIP equidistant between DPJ and LDP.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Asahi Shinbun 'Tensei Jingo' piece: Osaka Mayor Hashimoto nosedives into a chasm of his creation.

[jaichind]

What is interesting about the Osaka referendum are the strange alliances it created.  It actually was

{Osaka Restoration Association + JIP + National LDP + National KP}

vs

{Osaka LDP + Osaka DPJ + Osaka JCP + Osaka KP (kinda) }

JIP is really the merger of JRP and a YP splinter.  JRP was really the national version of Osaka Restoration Association and to keep its Osaka local identify Osaka Restoration Association never joined JRP or JIP.

The Osaka branch of LDP DPJ and JCP are all bitterly opposed to Osaka Restoration Association.  Many of the leaders in Osaka Restoration Association are LDP rebels but the vote based on Osaka Restoration Association is more from DPJ than LDP.  This has led to both LDP and DPJ being opposed to Osaka Restoration Association.  The National KP actually has good relations with Osaka Restoration Association with the Osaka KP somewhat lukewarm.  The national KP supported calling the referendum but then the Osaka KP did come out lukewarm against it and the Osaka KP did not really campaign against it.

The national LDP led by Abe was really hoping that Hashimoto wins the referendum to enhance his power within the JIP over the pro-DPJ faction within the JIP.  Abe was hoping that after the 2016 Upper House elections he can construct a 2/3 majority around LDP, pro-revisionist former YP, JIP and DPJ members.  For that to take place the leadership of the JIP must not be pro-DPJ or else alliance dynamics of a DPJ-JIP alliance will dictate that such support will not be forthcoming.  Ergo it was critical that Hashimoto enhances his power in JIP.   As for KP, It was really the national KP since it was part of the Abe cabinet that came in to pressure the Osaka KP to at least support holding the referendum while many of the Osaka KP was against it leading to a neutral position during the vote.  What is also interesting and funny is that the Osaka LDP, DPJ, and JCP formed an unlikely united front to campaign against the Osaka merger idea.  

Now that the referendum failed and Matsuno in charge of JIP, chances are that there will be a DPJ-JIP alliances and perhaps a merger.  Of course  Osaka Restoration Association will not be part of this and will continue as a separate party.  Even when Hashimoto retires from politics like he said later this year, the  Osaka Restoration Association will need his legacy to continue to get votes.  So there is no way that  Osaka Restoration Association will enter into an alliance with DPJ let alone join it.  I can see next year  Osaka Restoration Association and JIP split completely into two truly separate parties.  Osaka KP's relationship with its national party is damaged as well as Osaka LDP's relationship with Abe.  I am not even sure Hashimoto is really gone.  He will retire from Osaka politics but can I see Abe bring him in as a LDP candidate at the national level in the future.  Of course if he runs as LDP in Osaka it would lead to a civil war in Osaka LDP with Osaka LDP revolting against Abe.   2016 Osaka politics will be fun.

For Abe it is back to the drawing board on how to construct a 2/3 revisionist majority in the Upper House.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I doubt that drawing board will much avail him. Most of the Japanese people just don't seem particularly thrilled with revisionism. It's unfortunately not the fringe position it used to be, but I doubt it's in and of itself nearly as much of a winning issue as Abe seems to hope it is.

[jaichind]

I doubt that drawing board will much avail him. Most of the Japanese people just don't seem particularly thrilled with revisionism. It's unfortunately not the fringe position it used to be, but I doubt it's in and of itself nearly as much of a winning issue as Abe seems to hope it is.

I actually think that Abe believes this is the right thing to do even if it loses him and the LDP votes.  Most previous LDP politicians of various strips might believe in this to different degrees but was mostly about using it to corner the nationalist single issue vote to augment their various clientelist voting blocs but was never really pay the political, be it internal or international, costs of actually carrying out.  Abe is different I think.  He is about getting it done even if it cost him political capital. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I doubt that drawing board will much avail him. Most of the Japanese people just don't seem particularly thrilled with revisionism. It's unfortunately not the fringe position it used to be, but I doubt it's in and of itself nearly as much of a winning issue as Abe seems to hope it is.

I actually think that Abe believes this is the right thing to do even if it loses him and the LDP votes.  Most previous LDP politicians of various strips might believe in this to different degrees but was mostly about using it to corner the nationalist single issue vote to augment their various clientelist voting blocs but was never really pay the political, be it internal or international, costs of actually carrying out.  Abe is different I think.  He is about getting it done even if it cost him political capital. 

Of course Abe believes it's the right thing to do. He has deeply personal reasons to believe that. What I mean is that an amendment to the constitution requires a majority vote in a referendum to go into effect, and I honestly kind of doubt such a majority would be forthcoming. (Unless there are other things that I'm unaware of that a Diet supermajority can do that don't require a referendum.)