Japan General Discussion

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

IIRC New Party Daichi drop the "True Democrats" part of there name.

You're right. Edited to reflect that.

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Thanks! Depending on interest, these posts will probably end up being a fortnightly or monthly series.

[Vega]

Also, my how the SDP has fallen. The JCP has maintained the same amount of support since the 60s, though.

[jaichind]

Bank of Japan decided late last week to expand on the QE program sending world stocks higher along with the Japanese market as well as sending the JPY to record lows.  I guess this will have the short term effect of giving the impression that Abeonomics is going somewhere but the weaker JPY will see price for consumers rise even while their income stagnate.  I guess the Bank of Japan and Abe are hoping that the profits this QE shot spurs might make its way to pay increases.  If not the political impact on Abe on the medium run will be quite negative.

[jaichind]

UPDATE1: Abe may dissolve lower house for Dec. election: sources+
TOKYO, Nov. 11 Kyodo
(EDS: ADDING ABE'S QUOTES, DETAILS)
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering dissolving the lower house and calling a snap election by the end of this year as he faces a tough decision on a planned consumption tax hike, government and ruling party sources said Tuesday.
"The prime minister is considering various options, and one of them is a House of Representatives election by the end of the year," a government source said.
A senior official of Abe's Liberal Democratic party said the premier "may dissolve (the lower house) as early as Nov. 19," two days after he returns from a summit of the Group of 20 countries in Australia, the last leg of his ongoing three-nation tour.
If the lower house is dissolved, official campaigning for a general election is expected to start Dec. 2 or Dec. 9, with voting set for Dec. 14 or Dec. 21, according to the sources.
But Abe remained mum on the possibility of dissolving the lower house.
"I haven't decided anything about the timing of the dissolution," Abe said at a press conference Tuesday in Beijing after attending a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.
"I've heard that speculation-based media reports are spreading in Japan," Abe said. "I haven't mentioned the dissolution even once."
Earlier Tuesday, however, Natsuo Yamaguchi, head of the LDP's junior coalition partner Komeito, said in Tokyo he will prepare his party "for a year-end election scenario."
Abe is expected to meet with Yamaguchi and other ruling party executives shortly after his return from the overseas trip to discuss what course of action to take for the lower house.
Abe may also listen to what Yamaguchi says about consumption tax policy.
Some have said Abe should decide after the election on whether to go ahead with raising the tax rate to 10 percent from the current 8 percent as stipulated by a law.
The tax increase is aimed at covering swelling social security costs for Japan's graying population. The country's public debt is equivalent to more than 200 percent of gross domestic product.
The Abe government has said it will make a final decision after assessing preliminary and revised GDP data for the July-September period, due out next Monday and Dec. 8, respectively.
In the wake of the April 1 tax hike from 5 percent to 8 percent, the Japanese economy contracted an annualized real 7.1 percent in the April-June period, its worst setback since the first quarter of 2009.

[Vega]

Abe is gambling with this... he might win more seats... or he might loose seats.

Normally when you gamble, you loose.

[jaichind]

Abe is gambling with this... he might win more seats... or he might loose seats.

Normally when you gamble, you loose.

I suspect he will lose.  What he is saying is "I am going to delay the consumption tax which might lead to bad results and make me unpopular, so I am going to have an election now to lock that in so when the bad results come it is too late for you to try to punish me." What is going in his favor is that the JIP (fusion of JRP and the Unity party which is a Your Party splinter), DPJ, and various other center-left parties (PLP, SDP etc etc) are all disunited and not ready for a campaign.  On the other had sending the signal that Abeconomics is not working and wanting an election now might prompt de fact anti-LDP tactical voting and as a result LDP-NKP does not well as expected (still winning a majority of course.)  This time LDP-NKP does not have viable YP to pull int anti-LDP-NKP center-right voters.  These voters might end up voting DPJ to oppose LDP. This is the main risk of this election for Abe.

[jaichind]

Latest NHK poll.  Abe approval  44-38.  Support for parties

LDP   36.6
NKP    2.2

DPJ    7.9
JIP     1.2 (this is the Hashimoto Party)
JCP    3.5
PFG   0.2  (this is  Ishihara Party)
PLP    0.0
SDP   0.7

I suspect LDP-NKP will get around 38-42 in the party list vote which would be similar to 2012.  But in the FPTP vote there will be more anti-LDP-NKP tactical voting leading to a smaller majority than 2012.

[jaichind]

Of course Abe could be very effective in communicating why an election is necessary without making him look like a someone that is trying to lock in some result knowing that things will blow up in the future.  If so it will be an LDP-NKP sweep.

[Vega]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure he'll loose a good few seats. Though the LDP will still have a rather large majority.

[Simfan34]

Random question; what exactly is the Nippon Kaigi? I've just read about it now and the New York Times paints it out to be rather "ominous" and comprising a majority of the House of Representatives.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Random question; what exactly is the Nippon Kaigi? I've just read about it now and the New York Times paints it out to be rather "ominous" and comprising a majority of the House of Representatives.

It's a historical revisionist nonparty organization/interest group. I'm not entirely sure if a majority of the House of Representatives is affiliated with it, but a majority of the Cabinet definitely is. All told it has several tens of thousands of members around Japan, many of whom are Shinto priests--it supports a return to State Shinto and is thus a deeply religious, almost theocratic, organization in a way that roundly contradicts the stated beliefs and positions of the official postwar Association of Shinto Shrines. It's also known for opposing gender equality laws.

In addition to the LDP, I'd hazard a guess that the group is right up significant proportions of the JIP's and PFG's respective alleys. Kōmeitō is almost definitely not on board for the most part, since the frisson of Shinto theocracy is anathema to Kōmeitō's unusually (for Japan) non-syncretistic form of Buddhism.

The chairman of the organization, Miyoshi Tōru, was Chief Justice of Japan from 1995 to 1997.

[Famous Mortimer]

The DPJ and Your Party might merge. If this happened though, a significant number of Your Party members, including party founder Yoshimi Watanabe, would leave and probably join the fascist Party for Future Generations.

There was also some talk of the DPJ and Japan Innovation Party merging but that fell through because it was just ridiculous.

Japan Innovation Party leader Hashimoto has instead called on right leaning members of the DPJ to join with him in creating a whole new party.

[jaichind]

The trend over the last few months has been the center-right opposition parties had to start choosing between being pro-LDP or anti-LDP.  This is the case for both YP and JRP.  First YP had a split where anti-LDP faction formed the Unity Party (UP.)  Then JRP wanted to merge with UP and that is when the pro-LDP faction in RJP which is Ishihara  (his own son is in the LDP) split to create Party for Future Generations (PFG) (really funny because almost everyone in this party is pretty much over the age of 70.)  JRP then merged with UP to form Japan Innovation Party (JIP).  Now, what remains of YP want to merge with DPJ.  I am almost certain that the pro-LDP faction of what remains of YP will bolt from this (namely Watanabe who formed YP in the first place.)  If the DPJ-YP does merge or form an alliance I am sure Watanabe and his faction will split from YP and merge with PFG.

Yes, there is talk of DPJ and JIP merging which seems unlikely.  An series of tactical alliance seems possible to stop the LDP-NKP onslaught. I think PFG which is really just a new version of the old  Sunrise Party led by Ishihara really is just an extreme right wing version of LDP and rope in 1%-2% of the vote if that much.

[Famous Mortimer]

Oddly, as of right now, it looks like the People's Life Party is the most left-wing party, as it's the only one that opposes nuclear power and the only one against the TPP.

Besides the Communists of course.

[jaichind]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-blow-for-tokyo-and-washington-okinawa-elects-anti-base-governor/2014/11/16/eeade0e6-829f-4e32-991a-26826a2450be_story.html

"In blow for Tokyo and Washington, Okinawa elects anti-base governor"

This is a severe blow to Abe's government as the new governor will veto the US base moving plans and Abe will have to either overrule him (looks bad) or try to convince him to go along or look very bad in front of the Americans. 

[Vega]

Apparently Onaga was backed by a broad coalition of Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito prefectural officials.

[Famous Mortimer]

Is he a hawk or a dove?

[Vega]

The former I would imagine.

[Famous Mortimer]

Actually turns out he was former LDP backed by the SDP and the JCP.

[politicus]

Food for thought,,

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24822-japans-ageing-population-could-actually-be-good-news.html#.VINHmXtFqJ8

Personally I think a declining population is a blessing, it is only a matter of using the options it provides wisely and limiting the negatives. As with so many other challenges its a matter of prudent management, but Japanese politicians are terrible at thinking out of the box.

[Simfan34]

Food for thought,,

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24822-japans-ageing-population-could-actually-be-good-news.html#.VINHmXtFqJ8

Personally I think a declining population is a blessing, it is only a matter of using the options it provides wisely and limiting the negatives. As with so many other challenges its a matter of prudent management, but Japanese politicians are terrible at thinking out of the box.

No, it's not a good thing. No amount of spin can make it a good thing.

[politicus]

Food for thought,,

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24822-japans-ageing-population-could-actually-be-good-news.html#.VINHmXtFqJ8

Personally I think a declining population is a blessing, it is only a matter of using the options it provides wisely and limiting the negatives. As with so many other challenges its a matter of prudent management, but Japanese politicians are terrible at thinking out of the box.

No, it's not a good thing. No amount of spin can make it a good thing.

You get less pressure on the environment incl. less resource consumption and traffic congestion with a smaller population. Economically they actually get a higher per capita income and the workforce to dependent citizen ratio is the same, just olds and not children. Health care costs are low by world standard due to a healthy lifestyle.

In the end the entire planet will go through a shrinking population phase once a higher standard of living and the assorted individualism kicks in, so the we need to find a way to take advantage of population decline instead of treating it as a big problem.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Even if one thinks population decline is a good thing, Japan's population is shrinking too rapidly.  The fertility rate is a miserable 1.4 births per woman.

[Famous Mortimer]

Even if one thinks population decline is a good thing, Japan's population is shrinking too rapidly.  The fertility rate is a miserable 1.4 births per woman.

How is that miserable? It's not even shrinking.

[Deus Naturae]

Even if one thinks population decline is a good thing, Japan's population is shrinking too rapidly.  The fertility rate is a miserable 1.4 births per woman.

How is that miserable? It's not even shrinking.

Women only represent roughly 50% of the population. In order to maintain the current population size, they would need to have a rate of 2 births per woman