2012: Obama vs. Trump

[President Johnson]

What if Donald Trump won the GOP nomination instead of Romney? Would his election result have  been worse than Romneys?

[IceSpear]

Trump wins in a landslide because RINO Romney didn't enthuse the base.

[Mr. Smith]

Methinks (hopes) that is a troll post. A serious post would be like arguing Dennis Kucinich could've defeated George Bush by motivating the base.

I suspect Trump takes only just twice as many states as Barry Goldwater, 6 of those states being the states Goldwater did win.

The other 6 being (Utah,Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas,Nebraska, North Dakota)

[IceSpear]

Methinks (hopes) that is a troll post. A serious post would be like arguing Dennis Kucinich could've defeated George Bush by motivating the base.

I suspect Trump takes only just twice as many states as Barry Goldwater, 6 of those states being the states Goldwater did win.

The other 6 being (Utah,Idaho, Wyoming, Kansas,Nebraska, North Dakota)

Of course it was a joke. Obama would demolish Trump.

Obama - 403
Trump - 135

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's the RCP gallery of Trump vs. Obama polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_obama-2042.html

The average is Obama +19.5 - 15.6% to the left of the actual 2012 (Obama vs. Romney) NPV.

So, going on a uniform swing from 2012 and assuming the same level of third party support, we get this:

417-121 Obama

[NHI]

√ Barack Obama: 417 (54%)

Donald Trump: 121 (44%)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's the RCP gallery of Trump vs. Obama polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_obama-2042.html

The average is Obama +19.5 - 15.6% to the left of the actual 2012 (Obama vs. Romney) NPV.

So, going on a uniform swing from 2012 and assuming the same level of third party support, we get this:

417-121 Obama

And doing it on a uniform swing from 2008 (Obama +19.5 is 12.3% to the left of rl 2008 NPV) gives us an even worse result for Trump.

453-85 Obama


But yet, Trump thought for a while that he "had to run for president". Unless he desired to be Barry Goldwater Jr., not quite sure why he even flirted with the idea.