KS: SUSA: Davis +5

[The Other Castro]

Brownback will be re-elected.

You act like the race is Safe R. Brownback has been in the same place or worse since December, and at this point I'd be surprised if he pulls off the win. Again, he has not broken even 45% in a single public non you gov poll since April. Take out Rassy, and there's not a single poll showing him at 45% or better during the entire cycle.


Look, if Brownback (or Roberts) does win, you can criticize me all you want on Nov. 3. But for now, your relentless belief that Brownback and Roberts will win is just silly.

No, not safe. Not safe for either Brownback or Roberts. But the races certainly isn't safe for Davis or Orman so let's not throw stones in your glass house, pal.

I'm just confident in the result.

Categorizing a race as toss-up, lean, likely, or safe is a way of assigning a confidence level to what you feel the outcome of the race will be. So you saying that you are confident in your assertion that "Brownback will be reelected" implies a confidence level of at least a lean or likely republican, which is why people are criticizing you because it is ridiculous to call this race either lean or likely republican.