KS: SUSA: Davis +5
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  KS: SUSA: Davis +5
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Author Topic: KS: SUSA: Davis +5  (Read 2127 times)
Miles
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« on: October 07, 2014, 05:02:32 PM »

Article.

Davis (D)- 47%
Brownback (R)- 42%
Umbehr (L)- 4%
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2014, 05:05:48 PM »

Brownback should prepare himself:

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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2014, 05:07:20 PM »

#StripclubMentum!!!!!!

Told you guys not to jump to conclusions just from Marist.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2014, 05:11:28 PM »

Funny thing, Orman, Davis, and Kobach are all up 5.
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Hash
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2014, 05:33:15 PM »

New Poll: Kansas Governor by Survey USA on 2014-10-05

Summary: D: 47%, R: 42%, I: 4%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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sg0508
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2014, 06:38:30 PM »

Without the third party candidate, I'm curious how this poll looks.  I think that third partier could be the spoiler. 
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Lincoln Speaker and Senator Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2014, 06:45:38 PM »

Without the third party candidate, I'm curious how this poll looks.  I think that third partier could be the spoiler. 
PPP has found that he disproportionately takes away votes from Davis, sadly.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2014, 06:57:45 PM »

LOL, this says it all. Brownback is such a turd. He truly thinks he's entitled to win this race just because Kansas is a red state. Luckily him and Roberts will have plenty of free time to bond over their losses in DC after November.

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2014, 09:44:15 PM »

So adorable that people here, that claimed Brownback and Roberts were goners just a few weeks ago, don't think they'll make up five points in Kansas.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2014, 09:52:49 PM »

So adorable that people here, that claimed Brownback and Roberts were goners just a few weeks ago, don't think they'll make up five points in Kansas.

He's been down 5 points for like a year.
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King
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2014, 09:53:55 PM »

So adorable that people here, that claimed Brownback and Roberts were goners just a few weeks ago, don't think they'll make up five points in Kansas.

They were down 4 points this time last month, so they need to get around to making that up soon.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2014, 09:56:07 PM »

In fact, nearly a year ago today, Brownback was down four points in a SUSA poll!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2014, 10:00:28 PM »

Brownback will be re-elected.
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Lincoln Speaker and Senator Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2014, 10:23:36 PM »

You act like the race is Safe R. Brownback has been in the same place or worse since December, and at this point I'd be surprised if he pulls off the win. Again, he has not broken even 45% in a single public non you gov poll since April. Take out Rassy, and there's not a single poll showing him at 45% or better during the entire cycle.


Look, if Brownback (or Roberts) does win, you can criticize me all you want on Nov. 3. But for now, your relentless belief that Brownback and Roberts will win is just silly.
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KCDem
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2014, 10:26:16 PM »

You act like the race is Safe R. Brownback has been in the same place or worse since December, and at this point I'd be surprised if he pulls off the win. Again, he has not broken even 45% in a single public non you gov poll since April. Take out Rassy, and there's not a single poll showing him at 45% or better during the entire cycle.


Look, if Brownback (or Roberts) does win, you can criticize me all you want on Nov. 3. But for now, your relentless belief that Brownback and Roberts will win is just silly.

He's a delusional PA Republican. Ignore them, there are lots around...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2014, 10:29:20 PM »

You act like the race is Safe R. Brownback has been in the same place or worse since December, and at this point I'd be surprised if he pulls off the win. Again, he has not broken even 45% in a single public non you gov poll since April. Take out Rassy, and there's not a single poll showing him at 45% or better during the entire cycle.


Look, if Brownback (or Roberts) does win, you can criticize me all you want on Nov. 3. But for now, your relentless belief that Brownback and Roberts will win is just silly.

No, not safe. Not safe for either Brownback or Roberts. But the races certainly isn't safe for Davis or Orman so let's not throw stones in your glass house, pal.

I'm just confident in the result.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2014, 10:51:23 PM »

You act like the race is Safe R. Brownback has been in the same place or worse since December, and at this point I'd be surprised if he pulls off the win. Again, he has not broken even 45% in a single public non you gov poll since April. Take out Rassy, and there's not a single poll showing him at 45% or better during the entire cycle.


Look, if Brownback (or Roberts) does win, you can criticize me all you want on Nov. 3. But for now, your relentless belief that Brownback and Roberts will win is just silly.

No, not safe. Not safe for either Brownback or Roberts. But the races certainly isn't safe for Davis or Orman so let's not throw stones in your glass house, pal.

I'm just confident in the result.

Categorizing a race as toss-up, lean, likely, or safe is a way of assigning a confidence level to what you feel the outcome of the race will be. So you saying that you are confident in your assertion that "Brownback will be reelected" implies a confidence level of at least a lean or likely republican, which is why people are criticizing you because it is ridiculous to call this race either lean or likely republican.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2014, 03:05:23 AM »

LOL at them attacking SUSA. SUSA is the top rated major pollster by 538. It has an A. No other major pollster has better than a B+.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2014, 03:27:57 AM »

LOL at them attacking SUSA. SUSA is the top rated major pollster by 538. It has an A. No other major pollster has better than a B+.

To be fair, they performed rather miserably in 2010.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2014, 04:52:57 AM »

It looks like Davis and Orman are the same people, the anti-KS republican candidate. It looks like that's who Kansas will be voting for...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2014, 06:31:28 AM »

You act like the race is Safe R. Brownback has been in the same place or worse since December, and at this point I'd be surprised if he pulls off the win. Again, he has not broken even 45% in a single public non you gov poll since April. Take out Rassy, and there's not a single poll showing him at 45% or better during the entire cycle.


Look, if Brownback (or Roberts) does win, you can criticize me all you want on Nov. 3. But for now, your relentless belief that Brownback and Roberts will win is just silly.

No, not safe. Not safe for either Brownback or Roberts. But the races certainly isn't safe for Davis or Orman so let's not throw stones in your glass house, pal.

I'm just confident in the result.

Categorizing a race as toss-up, lean, likely, or safe is a way of assigning a confidence level to what you feel the outcome of the race will be. So you saying that you are confident in your assertion that "Brownback will be reelected" implies a confidence level of at least a lean or likely republican, which is why people are criticizing you because it is ridiculous to call this race either lean or likely republican.

While I get that point, the race can still turn for/against someone. "Safe" is basically "barring a major scandal, this one is over." That's not the case in Kansas this year. However, I can still be confident in saying Brownback will have just enough for a victory. Wink
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