KY-SurveyUSA: Grimes takes the lead (FORUM exclusive news)

[Tender Branson]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=05a9ca63-45de-4892-ad09-0a4395b05b8e

BOOM, baby !

[KCDem]

Glorious news!

[Panda Express]

Don't tell me that ad of her shooting frisbees actually worked

[Tender Branson]

The poll was also done during this news:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/219507-bill-clinton-rallies-behind-grimes-in-new-ad

[Tender Branson]

Don't tell me that ad of her shooting frisbees actually worked

I think KY is one of those places where shooting some gun trumps help saving a kid that was abducted to Africa ...

[RogueBeaver]

McConnell will win. SUSA's good but jumpy, plus if Dems really thought Grimes was ahead we'd hear more about it.

[Smash255]

Would love it if true, but need to see more polls to back it up.

[Lief 🗽]

Is this for real? Or is Tender just trolling us?

[Tender Branson]

Is this for real? Or is Tender just trolling us?

Eh...how should I be trolling ?

This is the poll tracker straight from SUSA's website.

[DrScholl]

Well, it looks like that internal that had Grimes up two was pretty much on the mark. A lead, even a slight one, is a good thing going into the election. All Grimes has to do now is keep up her message positively in the next few weeks, as McConnell's negatives are already out there.

[KCDem]

As usual conventional wisdom proves wrong.

[Lief 🗽]

Is this for real? Or is Tender just trolling us?

Eh...how should I be trolling ?

This is the poll tracker straight from SUSA's website.

How did you find it though? I don't see it anywhere on their website.

[Maxwell]

Until I saw this poll, I thought McConnell was out of the woods. Guess that's not true.

[Lief 🗽]

McConnell will win. SUSA's good but jumpy, plus if Dems really thought Grimes was ahead we'd hear more about it.

While I agree with you, everyone thought Ernst was losing three weeks ago. And then the Quinnipiac poll came out a few days later. So it's not impossible.

[King]

I keep tabs on Teabagger Twitter and there's a lot of hate for Mitch right now, especially by Mark Levin and Laura Ingraham who are pretty big voices for conservatives. I mean a lot of hate. He's practically a Kenyan socialist.

My October surprise pick is them endorsing the Libertarian out of spite and McConnell losing because of it.

[Lief 🗽]

Courier-Journal write-up: http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/elections/kentucky/2014/10/06/mcconnell-grimes-bluegrass-poll-due-tonight/16798721/

[backtored]

It's an outlier. If you saw a poll with Peters down two in Michigan, you would call it an outlier. The same skepticism should be applied here.

[windjammer]

McConnell will win. SUSA's good but jumpy, plus if Dems really thought Grimes was ahead we'd hear more about it.

[SPC]

It's an outlier. If you saw a poll with Peters down two in Michigan, you would call it an outlier. The same skepticism should be applied here.

The difference is that, aside from YouGov, Kentucky has not been polled by independent pollsters since September 12. In that same time frame, Michigan has been polled by four independent pollsters besides YouGov all of whom showed a Peters lead. I am not saying that one recent poll should be sufficient evidence to conclude that McConnell's earlier leads have vanished, but such an event should not be considered out of the realm of possibility.

[King]

This poll has some subgroups that seem really off unless Grimes is running a hell of a campaign.

She's only down 44-45 with men after being down 38-48 last poll. Paul beat Conway 60-38 with men in 2010.

The 35-49 age demo in this poll flipped from 49-39 McConnell to 37-47 Grimes in a month. Paul beat Conway 59-40 in that age group.

Grimes is only trailing 40-52 with people who make over $80k. Paul beat Conway 63-36.

Finally, she's only up 71-21 with self identified Democrats, which Conway managed to hold 83-18. However, this could be KY Dixiecrats moving back to their usual ID after being a 40-38 Republican state in 2010.

This is hard state to predict because demographics don't matter here at all. It's almost all white and they sway which ever way the wind blows.

[Brittain33]

This is purely a morale booster until something else shows her doing well.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Clicked on this, only have one word.

HUH?!

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This race aint ovee, Grumes has yet to fight.

[Tender Branson]

Is this for real? Or is Tender just trolling us?

Eh...how should I be trolling ?

This is the poll tracker straight from SUSA's website.

How did you find it though? I don't see it anywhere on their website.

SUSA only puts the full poll on their website after their clients have released it (in this case, the KY newspapers, today at 6pm).

But you heard and read it here first, because I'm the poll wizard who finds the results even before they get released ...

[Tender Branson]

And now it's also official:



I already entered it to the database.