PA-Franklin & Marshall: Wolf+20
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  PA-Franklin & Marshall: Wolf+20
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Author Topic: PA-Franklin & Marshall: Wolf+20  (Read 970 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: September 25, 2014, 01:31:28 AM »

All Registered Voters (with leaners): 54-33-4-9 Wolf/Corbett/Others/Undecided

Self-reported likely voters (with leaners): 57-37-2-5 Wolf/Corbett/Others/Undecided

Historical likely voters (with leaners): 57-36-2-4 Wolf/Corbett/Others/Undecided

...

Self-reported likely voters: "Very interested and certain to vote".

Historical likely voters: "Based on past 5 general elections."

...

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted September 15 - 22, 2014. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the pollís Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Project Manager Jacqueline Redman. The data included in this release represent the responses of 520 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 245 self-identified Democrats, 212 self-identified Republicans, and 52 self-identified Independents. The sample of registered voters was obtained from Labels & Lists. Survey results were weighted (gender, region and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State. The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.3 percentage points.

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/media_items/sept-2014-f-m-poll.original.pdf

NOTE: sample-size for likely voters is very small (ca. 220 voters), MoE is therefore +/- 6% !
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PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2014, 08:48:50 AM »

Their last poll showed Wolf +25. Looks like some voters are coming home to Corbett, but it's not going to be nearly enough.
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Vega
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2014, 02:54:09 PM »

Holy low sample size! A 6% margin of error, too.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2014, 09:19:56 PM »

Although the margin will almost certainly get smaller, it's pretty clear that the only chance of Corbett has at an actual victory is for the political environment to become 1984 redux + Wolf making huge gaffes and/or getting embroiled in a scandal.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2014, 10:36:32 PM »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Governor by Franklin and Marshall College on 2014-09-22

Summary: D: 53%, R: 33%, I: 4%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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