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  Talk Elections
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  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3
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Author Topic: IL: WAA: Quinn (only) down 3  (Read 3564 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: September 21, 2014, 07:38:35 pm »

Article.

Rauner (R)- 44%
Quinn (D)- 41%
Grimm (L)- 6%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2014, 07:41:19 pm »

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Vega
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2014, 07:42:24 pm »

Quinnmentum.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2014, 07:47:39 pm »

You've really done it now Rethuglicans. You've awakened the sleeping giant.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2014, 07:59:56 pm »

This is IL, it was never going to be a blow-out.

I mean 41% is still a terrible spot for an incumbent 6 weeks out... but
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2014, 08:02:20 pm »

Quinn will win.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2014, 08:23:46 pm »

Quinn only down 3% in a WAA poll?

Time to move this baby to Lean D.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2014, 08:56:33 pm »

I think what happens in polling from mid-October onwards, once the Chicago machine gets going will be telling.

But I'm starting to think Quinn will pull this out.
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KCDem
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2014, 09:01:23 pm »

This race is over. The People's Pat will ride to victory on the 4th.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2014, 09:46:30 pm »

Whoa, looks like it's actually happening...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2014, 09:49:25 pm »

Quinn is ready to lock this one down. It's not gonna be as close as last time either.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2014, 11:39:12 am »

A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.
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Marxist-Cornpopist Thought
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« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2014, 11:41:05 am »

A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.

They're consistently R-biased. so yeah.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2014, 11:44:03 am »

A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.

They're consistently R-biased. so yeah.

Junk regardless, so don't go treating them as legit now
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2014, 11:56:34 am »

Now we just need confirmation from Gravis
lol
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2014, 11:57:36 am »

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Impeachment Inquiry
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« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2014, 11:59:22 am »

A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.

They're consistently R-biased. so yeah.

Junk regardless, so don't go treating them as legit now

I think the point you are missing is that they're polls have been overly favorable to Republicans, so it's possible that Rauner is actually trailing.
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Marxist-Cornpopist Thought
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« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2014, 12:08:04 pm »

A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.

They're consistently R-biased. so yeah.

Junk regardless, so don't go treating them as legit now

If a firm that favors Republicans moves 8 points in the other direction, and the trend lines up with other polls, then that says a lot about the race. Like in my state, Brown isn't running a toss-up race yet because every poll that said he's close/leading is junky, but the momentum is clearly trending towards him.
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muon2
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« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2014, 12:43:16 pm »

Quinn's problem remains that 41% figure for support. Except for the Trib poll, he hasn't been above 43%, even in Dem polls. That means he needs a strong break of the undecided towards him in the last 6 six weeks, probably at least a two to one break, to overcome the deficit.

His other problem is the 6% showing for the Libertarian Grimm. Grimm isn't advertising, so there's a good chance that much of the support is a protest vote. Historically the third party candidates overpoll compared to their results in the election. Since Grimm isn't advertising, it's hard to see him holding that full 6%. Also third party polling is usually anti-incumbent, and that was true in the Gov's race four years ago, so if that vote slips off of Grimm, it would tend to add to Rauner more than Quinn.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2014, 02:05:30 pm »

Rauner was up double digits in prinary and managed a 2 pt win. Term limits.isnt on ballot, min wage is, it will be close.
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Flake
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« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2014, 02:14:35 pm »

Rauner was up double digits in prinary and managed a 2 pt win. Term limits.isnt on ballot, min wage is, it will be close.


"Rauner was up double digits in the primary and managed a two point win. Term limits aren't on the ballot, but the minimum wage issue is, Rauner can show he can underperform and the minimum wage issue will increase Democratic turnout, it will be close but I believe Quinn will win."

Is that what you said?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2014, 04:33:32 pm »

A WAA poll is suddenly a harbinger. Keep telling yourselves that, guys.

On its own it wouldn't mean much, but combined with the other one showing Quinn in the lead, it's pretty clear momentum in this race has shifted.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2014, 04:36:37 pm »

Quinn's problem remains that 41% figure for support. Except for the Trib poll, he hasn't been above 43%, even in Dem polls. That means he needs a strong break of the undecided towards him in the last 6 six weeks, probably at least a two to one break, to overcome the deficit.

His other problem is the 6% showing for the Libertarian Grimm. Grimm isn't advertising, so there's a good chance that much of the support is a protest vote. Historically the third party candidates overpoll compared to their results in the election. Since Grimm isn't advertising, it's hard to see him holding that full 6%. Also third party polling is usually anti-incumbent, and that was true in the Gov's race four years ago, so if that vote slips off of Grimm, it would tend to add to Rauner more than Quinn.

Third parties got 8% in 2010, so I don't see why they couldn't get 6% in 2014. As for Quinn not being able to crack 41%, that was pretty much the same logic people used to write him off in 2010. In fact, in the final pre-election average in November he was only at 39%. And since there's still over a month left, there's plenty of time for the support of both candidates to increase.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/il/illinois_governor_brady_vs_quinn-1361.html
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #23 on: September 22, 2014, 05:23:08 pm »

Damn, I didn't realize Brady's lead in the polls was almost 5% in 2010! Quinn's keeping it closer in the polls than he did 4 years ago.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #24 on: September 22, 2014, 05:24:17 pm »

Quinn is still in trouble, but I think things are moving in his direction. Bruce Rauner isn't Bill Brady, but he's certainly trying to blow this (I mean, watch that Mike Ditka ad again, dear jesus).
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