Fall of the House of Kerry

[NHI]

The economy, which had slowly been becoming a more important issue to voters, took center stage in mid September as the United States and the rest of the world watched as the great financial institutions suffered a massive meltdown. The country officially entered a recession and as Wall Street crumbled Americans looked to Washington. Instantly, Republicans saw this is moment as the perfect opportunity to lambast Kerry for presiding over the worst economy since the Great Depression, but the Romney Campaign held back from targeting the President, at least at first. Mitt Romney took to responding on the crisis with a statement, calling 'it a serious situation, and urged that both Democrats and Republicans needed to put aside partisan difference and work together for the good of the country."

President Kerry immediately called on Congress to act and urged the passing of a $700B bailout package for the financial industry, as well as a possible stimulus package to jump start the economy, but the Republican Controlled Congress showed little interest in helping the incumbent Democratic President. The original bill failed in the House and Kerry took to the stump blasting Republicans for obstructionism and for hurting the American economy and all Americans.

Romney, ultimately joined in calling for the passage of the bill, but took aim at President Kerry on the eve of their first debate saying "we find ourselves in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and that's not just me saying that. Poll after poll finds that more Americans are feeling squeezed and believe the country's in a recession. Take no further look than at the world around us. It's time for a change in Washington and it's start with electing a new President in the White House."

Kerry's campaign wasted no time attacking Romney, hoping to associate Romney's business career with the same type of failures that caused the economic crisis. Kerry, also looked to stress experience over change. "Change for change sake is not the answer my friends. We can change, but we'd be returning to what we left four years ago." In what some pundits described as an all of the above strategy, the Kerry campaign looked to tying Romney as a retread of Bush, hitting him on his business career and painting him as someone who was out of touch and couldn't be trusted.

Romney Takes it to Kerry

In their first debate, stakes were incredibly high. Americans were looking for resolve and clarity. Romney needed to demonstrate he was up to the ask, while Kerry needed to prove he could effectively handle and solve the crisis. Romney wasted no time going after Kerry in the first debate. In a debate, originally slated to focus entirely on foreign policy, economics became the central focus. Romney blasted Kerry over the state of the economy, and laughed off charges by Kerry that he was out of touch. "The President thinks I'm out of touch, because I've made a lot of money and I've been successful. Well, I have been successful Mr. President, but don't make this a one sided note, you too are very wealthy, you too have been successful. Rather than attacking me, why not tell the American people exactly how we're going to get out of this crisis, because going after me will not help struggling people find a job, or put food on the table, or put kids through college."

The President attacked Congress for failing to pass the bailout program and tried to tie Romney with the Republican Congress, and while Kerry gave a gallant effort, pundits, viewers and polls declared Romney won the debate -- decisively. Voters originally gave Romney a small lead on the question of who best would be able to handle the economy, after the debate, Romney trounced Kerry 47 percent to 38 percent.

Still Democrats refused to go quietly into the night. They continued their relentless assault on Romney's business record and painting him as an elitist out of touch with the average voter.

Yet, on the stump Republican Vice Presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty took Kerry head-on. Proving him to be a successful attack dog for the campaign, Pawlenty blasted Kerry's attack on Romney's wealth. "Mitt Romney has been successful yes. He's made a lot of money yes. But so too has John Kerry. The President is a very wealthy man, but there is a difference. Mitt Romney earned his money the old fashioned way through hard work, John Kerry earned his money by marrying his wife. I mean get with the program Mr. President, it's time to ketchup." In the crowd and at different rallies across the country crowds began to chant: "Ketchup- Ketchup" and some even held up bottles of Heinz Ketchup.

Gallup Tracking Poll: Late September 2007 (Post- Debate 1)

(R) Mitt Romney: 49% (+3)
(D) John Kerry: 46%

Who do Voters Trust to Handle the Economy? Late September 2007

(R) Mitt Romney: 47%
(D) John Kerry: 38%

Who do Voters Trust to Handle Foreign Policy? Late September 2007

(D) John Kerry: 45%
(R) Mitt Romney: 41%

Who do Voters Believe is most likely to bring about 'Change' in Washington? September 2007

(R) Mitt Romney: 48%

(D) John Kerry: 42%

What is more important to Voters: Change or Experience? Late September 2007

Change: 46%

Experience: 43%

President John Kerry: Approval Rating Late September 2007

Approve: 40%

Disapprove: 49%

Undecided/No Opinion: 11%

Governor Mitt Romney: Likeability Late September 2007

Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 39%
Undecided/No Opinion: 15%

Electoral Map: 2008

Mitt Romney: 227

John Kerry: 211
Undecided: 100

2004 Results: Close States

Ohio: 0.55%

√ (D) John Kerry: 50.00%

(R) George W. Bush: 49.45%

Iowa: 0.57%

√ (D) John Kerry: 49.60%

(R) George W. Bush: 49.03%

New Mexico: 0.79%

√ (R) George W. Bush: 49.71%

(D) John Kerry: 48.92%

Florida: 1.01%

√ (R) George W. Bush: 50.00%

(D) John Kerry: 48.99%

New Hampshire: 1.64%

√ (D) John Kerry: 50.13%

(R) George W. Bush: 48.49%

[NHI]

Shutting it Down

Congress ultimately passed the bailout package and President Kerry signed it immediately. However, he remained defiant in his chiding over Republican obstructionism in Congress and as some analyst put it, "he's trying put the noose their neck, but his have a difficult time removing it form his own. Kerry owns this economy. He is the President." His aides and advisers crafted a strategy running against Congress, a la Harry Truman in 1948. Campaign operatives saw some movement from voters towards them in presenting Romney as untrustworthy. Yet, no matter what they did, the economy was poised to worsen not improve and Kerry's political life hung in the balance over it.

Liberal pundits declared that the election would be decided on a knife's edge. Even with the crumbling economy, voters weren't flocking to Romney's campaign, but at the same time, Kerry wasn't gaining many independents needed for reelection. Some conservative commentators painted the election in a similar lens as 1980 or even 1932. Karl Rove, blasted Kerry for the worst economy since the Great Depression and argued that with all the problems Romney was heading towards a comfortable and inevitable election.

Confident as they were, and as rewarding as the intensity of tracking polls showed, Mitt Romney and his staff were taking nothing for granted. In the days and weeks following their first debates, Romney maintained on average two-three point lead. One Gallup poll immediately after the debate had him up by six points (50-44%). But, Romney always regarded snapshots as a moment in time and to be treated lightly at best. He, after all was not the leader in the polls when he ran for the nomination and yet he ultimately managed to topple both John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. "He is the President of the United States," Romney said in a strategy session, "and taking down an incumbent President is no small feat, even with the situation we find ourselves in."

The remaining debates proved to be draws at best. Kerry rebounded in the second, attacking Romney as a man of wealth and someone who in a strange way represented the type of 'systematic failure we're seeing with regards to our economy today." Romney's focus was two prong. One blame the economy on Kerry's stewardship and two present himself as the Mr. Fix-it type who could get America's economy going and restore again.

The Vice Presidential Debate was most historic than consequential. For the first time since 1984, a woman stood on the stage as a Vice Presidential contender. Both Tim Pawlenty and Kathleen Sebeilus stuck to their campaign talking points and neither one made any gaffes. In the polls conducted afterwards, voters tended to respond well to Seblieus, who was more on the offensive, while Pawlenty received strong points for taking the fight not to Seblieus, but to Kerry.

In the third and final Presidential debate John Kerry and Mitt Romney made their closing remarks. Kerry stressed steadiness in times of great change and uncertainty, while Romney responded in Reagan-esque fashion putting it to the American people: "The question before us today is are we better off as a people and as a country than at the time President Kerry took office? Regrettably, the majority of us will answer no..."

Polls tightened somewhat in the final stretch of the election, with both Romney and Kerry trading off with leads or coming up in a dead heat. Campaign internal polls on the Republican side showed Romney ahead and probably winning by 3-4 points, while Kerry's numbers indicated a much closer race.(0.5-2 points at best). In 2004, John Kerry narrowly ousted George Bush by twenty electoral votes and a sliver in the popular vote. Similarly, eight years earlier, one candidate narrowly one the electoral vote, while the other narrowly one the popular vote. Regardless of their internal numbers both Romney and Kerry knew the election would go down to the wire and both men prepared themselves and their families for what was expected to be a roller coaster election night.

RCP Average: November 3, 2008 (Romney +0.2)

(R) Mitt Romney: 48.9%
(D) John Kerry: 48.7%

[NHI]

Election Day: America Votes

John Kerry and Mitt Romney finished their final rallies of the campaign in different spots across the country. Kerry in Ohio, Romney in New Hampshire, but both men would be returning to Massachusetts to cast their votes and to join their supporters later that evening at their respective Election Night Victory rallies, located in Boston.

Kerry and Romney casts their votes early

The President would spend Election Day in Boston, while Mitt Romney, who after voting jetted off to Ohio and Pennsylvania for one last 'surprise rally of the day'. Romney visited campaign offices in both states, spoke to his supporters and then headed back to Massachusetts by early evening as votes across the country were starting to come in. Exit polls showed an increasingly close race and both campaigns prepared themselves for what was expected to be a long and perhaps drawn out night. "We're ready," Romney said to his staff shortly before the polls closed at 7 pm on the east coast. "We've given it everything."

The Electoral Map at 7 pm EST

JOHN KERRY: 0 (0%)

MITT ROMNEY: 0 (0%)

At 7pm the polls closed in six states and immediately projections could be made. Kerry as expected won the state of Vermont and quite handily over Romney (taking 59 percent to Romney's 39 percent). Traditional GOP strongholds like Indiana, Kentucky and South Carolina all went to the Romney column. Georgia remained too early to call for a period of time, but ultimately went for Romney. The state of Virginia, a relatively reliably state remained closer than expected, though Romney was ahead of Kerry; enough to cause Republicans a sigh of relief. (52-47 percent).

Here stood the map by 8:45 pm. Romney with a small lead in both the electoral and popular votes, but not enough to declare him the winner, just yet. Massachusetts, the home state of both men remained closer than expected and remained uncalled for well over an hour after the polls closed. Ultimately the state went to Kerry, albeit closer than the state had gone for him four years earlier or any Democratic candidates in decades. (56% - 43%).

MITT ROMNEY: 86 (51%)

JOHN KERRY: 62 (48%)

Virginia, ultimately fell in line towards the nine-thirty range and every major network projected Romney the winner in New Hampshire, a blow to the Kerry campaign, as they carried the state four years prior. Kansas and Colorado proved to be true battlegrounds. The presence of Kathleen Seblieus made both states closer, a move the Kerry campaign saw as potentially saving them, should states like Florida and Ohio go the Republican's way.

MITT ROMNEY: 172 (52%)

JOHN KERRY: 112 (47%)

As the clock approached ten o'clock, Romney continued to hold onto his lead in the electoral vote and started to expand his margins in the popular vote as well. Still, states like Ohio, Minnesota, Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan remained too close to call. In Minnesota the polls showed Kerry leading by the narrowest of margins (51.0% - 48.7%) while in Michigan, (Romney's birth state, and where his father George served as Governor) put Romney ahead of Kerry. (50.9% - 48.3%).  With the economic crisis and Romney's roots in the state the campaign invested heavily, even launching his presidential campaign there from the start. It proved successful, while close Michigan went for Romney, the first time the state voted Republican for President in twenty years.

Michigan going for Romney created a sense of changing dynamics and pundits across the board began to sense that things were starting to look good for Mitt Romney. "He tapped into frustrations with Washington and people's fears over the economy and said I'm here to help and we'll get through this," Chris Matthews said on MSNBC. "If he wins tonight, and it's not over yet, because four years ago everyone thought Bush had it in the bag and he nearly did until Ohio went for Kerry, but if things remain as they are then this is a big deal."

Minnesota, even with Pawlenty on the ticket looked a reach for the Republicans, but it remained undecided for the longest time. Fortunately, for the Democratic Wisconsin didn't bend to Republican winds and went for Kerry, allowing the Kerry campaign to breathe a little more easily as they awaited the eleven o'clock closings. Pennsylvania remained outstanding, but the Kerry campaign could count on the electoral votes of Washington, Oregon Hawaii and California to build them up. All four states went for Kerry.

Kansas remained Republican, though like Pawlenty in Minnesota Sebelius helped make it closer (55%- 44%). Colorado, despite the Democrat's holding their convention there remained in the Republican's lock. As expected the election looked to come down to Florida and Ohio, both states put Romney ahead, but it was close. A little after eleven Iowa, another Kerry state from 2004 tumbled and went for Romney.

MITT ROMNEY: 247 (51%)

JOHN KERRY: 200 (48%)

Romney's lead remained unbreakable and soon the realizations began to hit the Democrats and the Kerry Campaign, that the end was in sight. At 11:48 pm, eastern standard time the state of Ohio went for Governor Romney, putting at precisely 267 electoral votes, three votes shy of the 270 needed to become President. The Kerry Campaign saw the writing on the wall, but did not concede, first wanting to see if Romney crossed the threshold and if it would hold. Already, some Democrats began the talks of contesting the results, depending on the margins.

But it did not last long. Shortly before midnight, 11:51 to be exact, the networks followed in the footsteps of the Associated Press and called the election for Mitt Romney, after the AP's projection of Florida for the former Massachusetts Governor.

MITT ROMNEY ELECTED PRESIDENT

√ MITT ROMNEY: 294 (51%)

JOHN KERRY: 200 (48%)

It would prove a comfortable margin of victory. Romney would win both New Mexico and Nevada, while Kerry would retain Minnesota though by a narrow margin. (49.7% - 49.3%). Pennsylvania would remain undecided and faced an automatic recount, as the final tally was less that 0.5%. Originally Kerry led with 49.51% to Romney's 49.46%. The state remained uncalled until mid November, but ultimately went for Governor Romney, by the narrow margin of 49.52% - 49.50%, but the win was a historic nonetheless, as it was the first time a Republican Presidential candidate carried the Keystone State since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

√ MITT ROMNEY: 328 (51.0%)

JOHN KERRY: 210 (47.6%)

[NHI]

ROMNEY: A better America Begins Tonight

Pundits attributed Mitt Romney's election down to two factors: The economy and Kerry's leadership. In an election that many predicted would close, wound up not being that close at all. Romney soundly defeated Kerry in the electoral college and beat him by three percent in the popular vote. It was the best showing for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush. It was one of the worst defeats for an incumbent President and along with Romney's win Republicans increased their margins in the House and Senate, further cementing the significance of his win.

Democrats immediately began finger point, with much of the criticism being lobbied at Howard Dean for challenging John Kerry, believing it divided the party and weakened Kerry, eating up precious time that could have otherwise been devoted to messaging and keeping the Republicans on the defensive. Still, voter's number one issue was the economy and for Romney he proved to be at the right place at the right time and voters rallied to his campaign.

For President Kerry, just as he had four years ago, he spoke to his supporters Boston's historic Faneuil Hall where he concede and pledged his support to Governor Romney, whom he addressed as "President-Elect". Kerry was gracious and thankful to his supporters. Just four years ago, he won the White House by won of the narrowest margins and now four years hence he was ousted by a big margin than by what he originally won by.

[Bigby]

Wow, Mitt actually won. Nice.

[NHI]

Romney: Believe in America

Mitt Romney took office, facing the worst economic crisis since The Great Depression. Unemployment was approaching eight percent, the financial industry was on rocky ground, the auto industry was on the verge of becoming nonexistent and two wars in the middle east raged on. Dramatic action was needed. In his inaugural address, echoing FDR, Romney declared: "We need action and action now, to resolve this crisis swiftly and boldly; Democrats and Republican will need to come together for the good of this country, for the sake of our country, for the survival of our way of life...I have every confidence that our best days are ahead and that is because I believe wholeheartedly in the spirit and resilience of the American people!"

Americans responded well to Mitt Romney's address, and he entered office with a 55 percent approval rating. With the economy bleeding, Romney went to work. He helped push through Congress a tax cut for middle class families and small businesses, aimed at jump starting the economy. Romney also, championed a stimulus package. Romney also signed into law an energy bill that would later be known as the Keystone Pipeline, aimed at making America energy independent, as well as opening up a new sector for jobs.

Romney toured the country a lot during his first year, holding a series of town halls, where he talked with Republicans and Democrats over issues facing the country. A continuation of his campaign style town hall format, "Ask Mitt Anything" took the President from California, to Texas to Illinois, to Michigan, to New Hampshire, to New Jersey, to Florida and Alaska.

The economy saw subtle improvement during the course of Romney's first year. Unemployment spiked somewhat over the spring and summer, hitting 10 percent, but by the end of the year returned to single digit levels, hoovering at around 8 percent.

As the year came to the close Romney and his advisers began looking seriously at the nation's healthcare problem, an issue he talked about during the course of the campaign, but one which did not receive much focus when the economy soured. Sensing an opportunity before the midterm election truly got underway, Romney looked to bring healthcare to the forefront, echoing many of the same components he championed as Governor of Massachusetts, when his state became the first in the nation to provide universal healthcare to it's citizens. He now looked to do what he did for Massachusetts for America.

Some conservatives in his party were not wild about the idea, so the President knew he would ultimately have to turn to Democratic Senator Ted Kennedy for support, however, Kennedy died in 2009, leaving a void in the United States Senate. Replacing Kennedy would fall to Romney's successor in Massachusetts Governor Kerry Healey, who appointed State Senator Scott Brown to fill the remainder of Kennedy's term. (Brown would now join senior Senator Charlie Baker, who was appointed to replace John Kerry when he became President. Baker won the seat in his own right in 2008, becoming the first Republican Senator since Edward Brooke).

To his advisers Romney knew healthcare would be a challenge to pass, citing the debacle of the Clinton experience in the 90s, but Romney knew in the end it would pay off and as a his Chief of Staff Mike Levitt said, "If this works like it did in Massachusetts, your reelection is sealed."

[NHI]

United States Congress: Makeup

History:Senate 2006 Republicans: 55 Democrats: 44 Independent: 1
2008: Republicans: 56 Democrats: 42 Independent: 2

History: House 2006 Republicans: 233 Democrats: 202
2008: Republicans: 236 Democrats: 198

[NHI]

Democrats Win Back The House

Running on the still relatively weak economy Democrats were able to win back the House of Representatives, while making in roads in the Senate. Nancy Pelosi, succeeded John Boehner to become the first female Speaker of the House. Pelosi was credited with focusing the Democrat's campaign on making the election about Romney and the Republican Congress.

President Romney's Approval Rating: January 2011

Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 43%
Undecided/No Opinion: 9%

While Romney bore the brunt for the Democrat's winning back the House, ending the GOP's sixteen year lock on the House, with some conservatives including Rush Limbaugh calling for a conservative challenge to Romney in 2012. While Romney and Republicans didn't know it at the time, the Democrat's historic return to the House of Representatives would be a blessing in disguise for the President heading into 2012.

[Bigby]

I love the cliffhanger regarding the control of the House. Carry on.

[NHI]

2012 Democratic Primary Poll: December 2010

Howard Dean: 24%
Hillary Clinton: 22%
Kathleen Seblieus: 17%
Barack Obama: 15%
Martin O'Malley: 7%
Undecided: 15%

[NHI]

General Election Polling: Jan, 2011

MITT ROMNEY: 52% (+8)

HOWARD DEAN: 44%

MITT ROMNEY: 51% (+7)

KATHLEEN SEBLIEUS: 44%

MITT ROMNEY: 51% (+6)

HILLARY CLINTON: 45%

MITT ROMNEY: 50% (+6)

BARACK OBAMA: 44%

[NHI]

No Warning Shot

Pelosi: Our top political priority will be to deny President Romney a Second Term

Romney: Posturing and nitpicking is not leadership

Democrats derailed the President's attempt at healthcare reform. It narrowly passed the Senate, but died in the House, with Speaker Pelosi addressing the bill as, "watered down and pointless." The next big fight of 2011 came as the United States government stared down the barrel of a government shutdown. Democrats in the House refused to back President Romney's budget which included tax cuts and reductions in spending. Immediately, the flood gates opened with Democrats threatening "to shut down the whole government." Romney and Republicans argued that the bill paid down the nation's deficit while reducing taxes, a move some Democrats, including Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders said was "reprehensible to the middle class!"

Fortunately, at the 11th hour the US avoided a shutdown with the passing of a budget, that left both sides disgruntled. Still, Romney praised Congress for averting a government shutdown, though the ordeal damaged Romney's approval rating, bringing his numbers to 42 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval.

With Romney seemingly on the ropes and government dysfunction at an all time high Democratic contenders for the Presidency took their first steps towards the nomination. Challenger to John Kerry in 2004, Howard Dean launched a third consecutive bid for the White House, lambasting Romney for presiding over an economy of dismal results and gridlock in Washington. "President Romney is without course and without direction, so let's sending packing. Let's get him back on the right course, home to Massachusetts. It's time to retire this President!"

Despite his critics, who credited him for losing the election for John Kerry Howard Dean ran to the top of the pack, though it was a soft lead as most Democrats were waiting to see if the two big guns would enter the race: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Hillary Clinton was widely considered to be planning a presidential bid. She made key trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, campaigning for candidates during the midterm election. She delivered the Democratic Response to Mitt Romney's State of the Union in 2010 and positioned herself as a strong critic of the President, while in the Senate.

However, Former President Bill Clinton seemed to dispel any idea of a Clinton candidacy - or any successful Democratic candidacy in 2012, admitting in an interview on Meet The Press, that the Democrats would need to be unified like never before, for defeating Mitt Romney would be no easy feat. "We've now ousted two incumbent Presidents back to back, that's not happened since Ford and Carter, so the country is in a volatile place, but that doesn't mean he's easily beaten. Everyone says look his numbers are bad, he's going to be a one termer, well David people said that about in '94 and '95...polls are a snapshot so I'd be cautious about people saying Romney's done."

Hillary Clinton would ultimately decided against a bid, announcing in the spring of 2011, that she would remain in the Senate and run for reelection in 2012. In her absence, other Democrats looked to enter the fray. Indiana Senator Evan Bayh declared his campaign in June of 2011, as did Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley. The media described the field as 'lackluster' with Chris Matthews pointing that, "the Democrats don't have any superstar. We need star power, I mean even just a little and it'll do wonders against Mitt Romney."

However, even with Romney's approval ratings in the mid 40s Democrats seemed reluctant to line up to take him on. The reason, despite the fragile economy, unemployment had dipped by June of 2011 to 8.0 percent and many Democrats feared a quasi-"Morning in America" campaign from the Massachusetts Republican. By mid-summer Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer jumped into the mix, bringing a sense of fun and character to the race, though few believed he could actually win the nomination, let alone the election.

Some Democrats pinned their hopes on Barack Obama, the rising star Senator from Illinois who won the hearts of Democrats everywhere with his keynote speech at the DNC in 2004, but the Senator seemed reluctant to enter the race. At only fifty he still had years ahead of him to make a run for the Presidency and as he said to himself, "why run against an incumbent and lose, because after that -- that's it." His strategist and friend David Axelrod thought differently, seeming to prod Obama towards challenging Romney. "There's a void in the party. There is no clear candidate, no favorite. You could come in and really shake things up. This could be your moment."

The idea of 2012 being his moment appealed to Obama, but he had to think practically. Though, he had no doubts he would all but win the nomination, his sights looked to the general election, where the climate would be much more difficult. "If things improve and Romney runs like Ronald Reagan we'd be best to put up a sacrificial lamb and come back in '16, and even if things are only somewhat better it's still an uphill fight." Obama realized the difficulty in the moment, Americans despite their wild election mood swings, did not seem ready to throw Mitt Romney out -- just yet.

As Obama waffled and pondered throughout the winter and spring one Democrat waited no time entering, former Kansas Governor and Vice Presidential candidate Kathleen Sebelius. As the first serious female contender her entrance into the race attracted a lot of headlines and instantly she passed Dean to become the frontrunner.

Romney Kicks-off Reelection Campaign in NH

Romney waited until early July to launch his campaign for reelection. In his speech, he cited the improving economy and that America was on the road to recovery. "Now is not the time to retreat. Now is the time to keep moving forward, to build that America we want. I need your help and I ask you to stand with me one more time."

Democratic Nomination Poll: August 2011

Kathleen Sebelius: 26%
Howard Dean: 20%
Evan Bayh: 15%
Martin O'Malley: 11%
Brian Schweitzer: 6%
Dennis Kucinich: 3%
Undecided: 19%

In late July Dennis Kucinich would throw his hat into the ring, citing dissatisfaction with the current crop of candidates, but like in 2004, he struggled in the polls, managing to get no higher than between 3 and 5 percent. By the end of summer the field looked to be settled with the top tier coming down to Sebelius and Dean, with Bayh looking to knock either one of them off and take second. The problem for Democrats was the lack of passion.

In Dean many Democrats blamed him for their loss in 2004 and in Sebelius a similar 'loser label" was attached. While exciting draws in their respective campaigns of the past, both were seen dull the second and third time around. Sebelius was proving uninspiring and Dean seemed to lack the passion he had in both his previous campaigns. Bayh, while respectable could not manage to break into the top two and also faced a charisma gap.

Democrats were beginning to fret. Their top two candidates were running lackluster campaigns at best and none of the other candidates seemed to be catching fire. There was an effort to draft Wesley Clark into running, but the former general passed on a second bid for the White House. Even mention of Al Gore circulated for a week or more, illustrating the Democrat's frustration with the current crop. Hillary Clinton was asked, but passed, "no thanks." Soon, all eyes fell to Barack Obama.

Obama had remained on the fence throughout the spring and summer. At one point it looked like he might be entering the race, but he whiffed and remained on the sidelines, watching as the field emerged. Democrats began calling to him, urging him to run. In an interview on Meet the Press, Obama responded to the sentiments, but again remained indecisive on running. Finally in late August, right before Labor Day, Obama convened a meeting with his family to announce his decision. Originally, at the start of the year he expressed no interest or desire in running for President, but throughout the year he continued to think about running, but remained on the fence. Finally, seeing the relatively weak field, he deemed himself the only Democrat that could save the Democrats -- from themselves!

To great fanfare and surprise, Barack Obama entered the race for President shortly Labor Day weekend, kicking off his campaign in Iowa, before traveling to New Hampshire and South Carolina. Instantly, his presence jump started the race and he rocketed to the head of the polls, either tying with Sebelius or leading her.

"We've found our guy," Chris Matthews said after the Democrat announced he was indeed running. "He's late, he'll have some ground to makeup, but he can do it, because this guy has the magic and prowess and oratorical skill we've not seen in generation if ever. He's the real deal."

Democratic Primary Preference Poll: Sept. 2011

Barack Obama: 28%
Kathleen Sebelius: 20%
Howard Dean: 15%
Evan Bayh: 12%
Martin O'Malley: 9%
Brian Schweitzer: 6%
Dennis Kucinich: 3%

[NHI]

Romney: Let the Games Begin

While the Democrats seemed to have found their candidate in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney and his campaign were secretly thrilled. In surveying the field before Obama's entry they deemed Bayh as the most serious contender, assuming he could win the nomination. From the start they believed Sebelieus was a non-starter, and Dean, who might win a the primary, lacked the stamina or talent for a national campaign. Barack Obama changed the dynamics of the race, but in a good way for the Republican.

They believed first Obama's late entry into the race would be a disadvantage, campaign seasons were starting earlier and earlier and to enter the primary four months before the Iowa Caucuses left the Illinois Democrat with a lot of ground to cover. Assuming he secured the nomination, which the Romney campaign believed was all but a given, he would be an easier opponent. While, they acknowledged the historical nature of his potential candidacy he was a political lightweight. Obama ducked the tough issues in the Senate, often voting present or was absent. He refused to take a stand on important issues and was as campaign manager Beth Myers put it: "An old-fashioned liberal." Immediately, the President and his team began hitting the likely nominee, for his voting record and lack of experience.

"He's in a field comprised of Governors, he's a Senator and a mediocre one at best."
As Romney and his campaign looked to the general and the Democrats looked to the caucuses the campaigns began preparing for the fights to come, though no one quite expected the journey the 2012 race would ultimately become...

[NHI]

Hard Times for Obama

The Democratic Frontrunner, with such promise stumbled out of the gate. Much hope and expectations were placed on Barack Obama's candidacy, but the Illinois from the start ran a lackluster campaign, coupled with multiple gaffes in the early debates and the lack of organization the once rising star in the Democratic party seemed to have fizzled out.

"The issue was he started to late. You can't jump into a Presidential campaign on the final leg before the primaries. Fred Thompson tried in 2008 and he failed. People make the Reagan comparison, in 1979, but Reagan was a different candidate, he was established, Obama, while a good speaker doesn't have the recognition Reagan had and more importantly American 2011 is different than America 1979, campaigns have changed, the style and tone and planning and pacing are all different today. It's a 24 hour process, it's an eighteen month ordeal." -- James Carville quoted in the book, "Decision in America: Election 2012".

Sebelius Makes up Ground

Kathleen Sebelius looked to benefit with Obama stumbling, but she was by no means the favorite. She knew her campaign depended on success or failure in Iowa. She poured all her resources into the state, outpacing Dean and neighboring rival Evan Bayh, still numbers showed a tight race.

Obama's Ted Kennedy Moment

In what was expected to be a soft-ball interview with ABC's Diane Sawyer one month before the Iowa Caucuses, Diane Sawyer asked Barack Obama "What would America be like under President Obama?" What followed was a long, rambling answer that did not get to the heart of the question. Obama seemed to dance around the question, instantly causing pundits to relate the moment to Roger Mudd's interview with Ted Kennedy, when the late Massachusetts Democrat failed to articulate on the reasons he wanted to be President.

The interview hurt the campaign, when they needed a win. After a series of poor debate performances, shortly after Thanksgiving Obama delivered a knockout in New Hampshire, channeling the Obama of 2004, he looked to move America past the era of 'red states and blue states'. "It's time for a new kind of politics," he said, but a few short weeks later everything seemed to be coming undone. Obama's poll numbers which were growing soft as the pre-primary season carried on started to sink, with Sebelius moving to the top of the pack, along with Evan Bayh.

Howard Dean even looked poised for comeback. Low on funds and glaring at poor polling in Iowa, Dean made the decision to move his campaign to New Hampshire and focus entirely on the Granite State. Four years earlier he narrowly defeated President Kerry in the primary and hoped he could tap into the same kind of luck again. Dean was aware of the costs, betting the farm on New Hampshire would either prove a stroke of brilliance or damn foolish. Dean was willingly to take the bet.

[Del Tachi]

Very good TL; keep it up.

Is Obama's 2012 run suppose to be analogous to Rick Perry's?

[NHI]

Very good TL; keep it up.

Is Obama's 2012 run suppose to be analogous to Rick Perry's?

In a way, yes. 2008 was an exceptional year and Obama managed to punch all the right buttons at the right. I think it's fair to say had he not run in '08 he might not have become President, in many ways circumstances both domestically and internationally brought him to the presidency.

[Bigby]

Very good TL; keep it up.

Is Obama's 2012 run suppose to be analogous to Rick Perry's?

In a way, yes. 2008 was an exceptional year and Obama managed to punch all the right buttons at the right. I think it's fair to say had he not run in '08 he might not have become President, in many ways circumstances both domestically and internationally brought him to the presidency.

It's alarming how many alternate history writers assume Obama is destined to become President, even in a point of divergence where Obama likely would not have been born.

[NHI]

Obama Camp. Holds Breath on Iowa

In the days leading up to the Iowa Caucuses, it looked as though the nomination was slipping away from the Barack Obama. Evan Bayh and Kathleen Sebelius were fighting for first and at best the Obama team hoped for third. They ran a crappy campaign; there was no denying it. In the back of his mind Obama was regretting his late-entry campaign for President. Some of his advisers, including his wife Michelle were refusing to give up. She thought Obama could hold on until South Carolina, where he would be able to relaunch his campaign with a win there. Polls showed him still leading there and it looked like Iowa and New Hampshire were going to produce separate winners, but Obama was not convinced.

Running unopposed President Romney kept his focus on the winner of the Iowa Caucuses. They were banking on a Sebelius win and given the poor nature of Obama's campaign, this team began looking towards a possible showdown with the former VP candidate. "Let's let the Democrats battle it out," Romney said. "I'll stick with governing the country."

AP: IOWA CAUCUSES TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Kathleen Sebelius: 23.13%
Evan Bayh: 23.06%
Barack Obama: 18.11%
Howard Dean: 15.25%
Brian Schweitzer: 12.46%
Martin O'Malley: 4.77%
Dennis Kucinich: 2.22%
Other: 1.0%

The Iowa Caucuses proved to be a closer than expected! Sebelius and Bayh trade leads back and forth throughout the night. Obama conceded defeat earlier. He trailed Bayh by almost five points and signaled disappointment, but pledged to move on.

AP: Bayh Addresses Supporters, Doesn't Concede

Shortly after midnight on the east coast, Evan Bayh addressed his supporters, all but declaring victory. With 98 percent of the vote in, Sebelius led with 0.2 percent. Already both campaigns were looking at possible recounts. "This is a squeaker, win or lose this campaign is energized and we're going on,!"

IOWA CAUCUSES: DEMOCRATS 100% Reported

√ Evan Bayh: 23.112%
Kathleen Sebelius: 23.111%
Barack Obama: 18.07%
Howard Dean: 15.27%
Brian Schweitzer: 12.40%
Martin O'Malley: 4.90%
Dennis Kucinich: 2.12%
Other: 1.0%

IOWA CAUCUSES: REPUBLICAN 100% Reported

√ Mitt Romney: 95.4%

Other: 4.6%

Bayh was ultimately declared the winner at 1:29 EST, winning the caucuses by 0.001 percent. Sebelius conceded defeat and did not contest the results. In the wake of Iowa, Martin O'Malley ended his campaign and endorsed Evan Bayh. Dennis Kucinich, also bowed out and endorsed Howard Dean, calling him "the best man in the race, by far." The New Hampshire Primary looked to be contentious. Howard Dean's narrow lead had all but evaporated and both Bayh and Sebelius surged in the Granite State.

Obama was polling between third and fourth and looked to focus much of his campaign in the South Carolina Primary.

CLINTON ENDORSES BAHY

In New Hampshire, Bayh secured the endorsement of Hillary Clinton, who called on all Democrats to unite behind the Indiana Senator. "He's a proven winner, he's got a record of moderation and progress. He's an independent thinker and he's the one candidate who keeps Mitt Romney up late at night. He's the man we need to lead out party and the one to be the next President of the United States!"

DEAN STRUGGLES IN NH

Howard Dean, once an icon the liberal wing of the party, struggled in New Hampshire, the third time around. His bet to put everything on New Hampshire was coming up short. His rivals blasted him as being erratic and out of step with the party. In one debate Kathleen Sebelius went as so far to say, "He's the reason we have Mitt Romney in the White House right now, instead of John Kerry."

In the final stretch of the primary it looked again to be a contest between Bayh and Sebelius. In the days following Iowa, Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, who finished fifth in Iowa was slowly creeping up in the Granite State. Heading into the primary he was polling towards third percent, giving his campaign a raised profile and needed momentum heading into the primary

On primary night, Obama came in a distant fifth in the primary -- last place, while Dean ended up in fourth, and acted as the swansong for his campaign. The battle of the night came down to Schweitzer, Bahy and Sebelius. Bayh led with early polls, and had a one point advantage going into the primary, but soon the numbers tightened. Sebelius and Schweitzer battled it out for second and third place. Many in the media were impressed by Schweitzer's late surge and they attributed it to the lack of certainty over the field. For starting out in single digits nationally, he was now running neck and neck with Bayh for first place in the New Hampshire Primary.

"No one is running away with this nomination." -- Chris Matthews on the night of the New Hampshire Primary.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY: DEMOCRATS 51% Reported

Evan Bayh: 25.0%

Brian Schweitzer: 24.5%
Kathleen Sebelius: 24.1%
Howard Dean: 14.8%
Barack Obama: 10.6%

[NHI]

BAYH WINS AGAIN

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY: DEMOCRATS 100% Reported

√ Evan Bayh: 25.3%
Brian Schweitzer: 24.5%
Kathleen Sebelius: 23.9%
Howard Dean: 15.0%
Barack Obama: 10.2%
Other: 1.0%

Bayh topped the New Hampshire Primary, becoming the first candidate in either party to win both the first contests. While an important win in terms of establishing momentum and diminishing other candidates, both wins were narrow, continuing the narrative that the field was weak and Bayh was the best of a bad situation. Bayh, was not the most inspiring person on the stump, with some even describing him as dull. Still Bayh was the most successful candidate in the bunch, having won two of the primaries.

In the wake of his New Hampshire lost Howard Dean dropped out. His dismal third place showing signaled the death nail for his political coffin and he exited, but did not endorse, saying he would wait until the dust settled. Brian Schweitzer's strong showing in New Hampshire had the media proclaiming him the 'come from behind kid'. His folksy appearance and down to earth nature attracted independents and Democrats to his campaign and some believed if he had another few days in New Hampshire he would have won the primary.

Still, he pressed on campaigning in the ever important Nevada Caucuses. Bayh's numbers received a boost after New Hampshire, but the state looked favorable to either Sebelius or Schweitzer, with Obama focusing heavily on South Carolina, Bayh moved to Florida, where he believed a big win would cement him as the frontrunner and clear the field for the nomination.

In Nevada Sebelius and Schweitzer battled it out with Sebelius ultimately being declared the victory. She won the caucuses with a meager 32 percent of the vote, while Schweitzer took 29 percent. Obama did better than expected taking 19 percent of the vote, along with Bayh who alsot won roughly 19 percent.

Obama Stumps in South Carolina

Obama spent the longest of any of the candidates in South Carolina and the most money. He was crushed in Iowa and forgotten about in New Hampshire. He bet the farm on South Carolina to turn around his campaign, but already the handwriting on the wall seemed to suggest he was too late. Even with a win, the momentum was growing for Bayh and with Sebelius charging forward after a win in Nevada Obama seemed to be the odd man out. Ultimately, he won the South Carolina primary, but Sebelius made it closer.

Going into the Illinois Senator believed he would win by five to eight points, but only won by three. The media hailed Obama for his win but it did little to change the dynamics of the race. His campaigning was not sinking -- it had practically sunk.

SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY: DEMOCRATS 100% Reported

√ Barack Obama: 32.0%

Kathleen Sebelius: 29.0%
Evan Bahy: 26.9%
Brian Schweitzer: 11.1%

If things looked bad for Obama, they weren't looking much better for Evan Bayh. Heading into the Florida primary, Bayh looked to close the deal once and for all, but just before the primary the Iowa Democratic Party certified the results of the caucuses and as it turned out Bayh was not the winner of the primary after all -- Sebelius was. She would top him by 21 votes.

The surprise shift slightly altered the race and stalled Bayh's momentum, allowing Sebelius to charge forward like a freight train into Florida and narrowly carry, but still win the primary.

FLORIDA PRIMARY: DEMOCRATS 100% Reported

√ Kathleen Sebelius: 38.7%
Evan Bayh: 35.9%
Barack Obama: 17.0%
Brian Schweitzer: 7.4%

SEBELIUS ALL THE WAY

After her win in Florida, the nomination was practically Sebelius. The former Vice Presidential candidate and Governor of Kansas faced no challenge from Obama or Schweitzer who faded into obscurity as the primary wore on. Obama would drop out before Super Tuesday and endorse Sebelius, while Schweitzer remained in the race, but never a serious threat or consideration. Bayh fought hard and won a few caucuses and primaries along the way, but suffered a bruising defeat on Super Tuesday only winning one primary; neighboring Ohio.

He would remain in the race for a few more weeks, especially after winning Illinois, and later in April the New York primary by a large margin than expected (53% - 45%), but he lost the Pennsylvania Primary the same day (51% - 47%) and with Sebelius holding a huge lead in delegates and funding Bayh called it quits after losing the Texas primary. He endorsed Sebelius at a rally before the California Primary, calling on all Democrats to unite.

In a field so divided and uninspiring, Kathleen Sebelius, the unexpected nominee became the first woman to top a major party ticket. The primary ended the focus shifted to the general election. President Romney sat on a lead in the polls and a recovering American economy. The odds were against Sebelius, even given her historic candidacy.

√ Kathleen Sebelius: 9,221,046 (47.3%)
Evan Bayh: 6,566,333 (33.7%)
Brian Schweitzer: 1,947,766 (10.0%)
Barack Obama: 1,094,111 (5.6%)

Other: 678,999 (3.4%)

(R) Mitt Romney: 49%
Kathleen Sebelius: 44%

[NHI]

The Democratic Ticket: Sebelius-Obama

Kathleen Sebelius made history by tapping Barack Obama to be her running mate, cementing the historical nature of their ticket. The first woman and first African-American.

Republicans Waste No Time!

President Mitt Romney and Vice President Tim Pawlenty wasted no time in criticizing the ticket. "Kathleen Sebelius and Barack Obama represent the failed policies that got us into the Great Recession. We don't want to go in reverse! In American we keep moving forward."

GENERAL ELECTION POLL: AUGUST 2012

Mitt Romney: 48%
Sebelius: 45%

The Democratic ticket energized Democrats as they came together for their convention in Charlotte, NC. The Obama pick was seen as a shrewd move by Sebelius who faced an uphill battle against Romney. With the economy recovering, Democrats had a difficult time developing a message that would aid them in the election. Democrats hoped that the historic significance of their ticket would be enough to put them over the top.

Romney: 238
Seblius: 206

[NHI]

SEBELIUS MAKES HISTORY

Accepting her party's nomination in Charlotte on Thursday night, Kathleen Sebelius made history -- by becoming the first woman to lead a major party ticket as President of the United States. Sebelius, acknowledged the historic nature of his candidacy, by saying "Americans are ready to break the glass ceiling once and for all and more importantly to turn the page on Mitt Romney as President of the United States." Sebelius went after Romney as a champion of rich and a scrooge to to the poor. "He favors helping his buddies on Wall Street and K Street, while middle class Americans get the shaft...the President says Wall Street is doing fine, the economy is recovering... well take a look around you Mitt. Things may look nice and rosy from the White House or from one of you many mansions across the country, but to the average folks things could be a lot better."

Sebelius was praised for the delivery of her speech and while she offered very little specifics over what she would do as President, she was successful in taking the right straight to the President, illustrating to the White House that it would be a fight after all. "An America where we all succeed, with rising incomes, lowering debt and renewed hopes is an America we all want to be apart of it and I ask for you help in helping to build it." 

Gallup Tracking Poll: August 2012

Romney: 49% (+3)
Kathleen Sebelius: 46%

P.P.P. Poll: August 2012

Sebelius: 48% (+1)
Romney: 47%

NBC/WSJ Poll: August 2012

Sebelius: 48% (+2)
Romney: 46%

Rassmussen: August 2012

Romney: 48% (+1)

Sebelius: 47%

ABC/WASH POST: Poll August 2012

Sebelius: 48%

Romney: 48%

Average: August 2012

Romney: 47.6% (+0.2)

Sebelius: 47.4%

[NHI]

MITT HAPPENS

Mitt Romney used his convention stage not to attack Kathleen Sebelius, but instead to speak on his Administration's accomplishments and on his vision for the country. A few short days after the DNC and before the start of the RNC Mitt Romney had announced to the nation and to the world that the United States had successfully found and destroyed Bin Laden. The news caused Romney's approval ratings to skyrocket, hitting an upwards of 64 percent. Democrats were largely silent on the issue, up until that moment a major talking point had been that Mitt Romney had yet to defeat Bin Laden and was only partially drawing down forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. One major talking point was gone. Republicans came into their convention energized and excited, but Romney was calm and collected, stressing a renewed patriotism, that the death was not a Republican victory, or a Democratic failure, but an American triumphant over evil, and a reaffirming as he put it, "We will never relent. We will never halt and in the end we will succeed...and to those who are willingly to bet on our decline or loss of status let me assert my belief: That's a bet we as Americans are willingly to take because we'll beat you every time!"

In his acceptance speech Romney cited a resurgent auto industry and a climbing stock market. He cited the issues of unemployment and while he shifted some blame to the Democratic Congress for the gridlock and for failing to pass comprehensive healthcare reform, he seemed to channel FDR when he said, "I'm going to keep trying. I'm going to keep working, because my priority from day one has been to put Americans back to work."

In his closing remarks Romney sounded a patriotic and optimistic tone, in what some pundits described as 'reaching for his own Morning in America moment' "We Republicans believe with all our hearts that America does not have to settle for second best. We do not have to compromise our principles and values we have been the bedrock of this great nation since our founding. We believe that our future is brighter than our past. We love this country. We believe in America, and if you are willing to stay the course we've been on and continue to work with me I have no doubt in our mind we will do as our founders described of creating a more perfect union!"

 In the wake after the Bin Laden news Romney's poll numbers jumped five points and now after the convention he was holding a commanding lead in the polls. There existed the chance that despite shortcomings Americans would rally around Mitt Romney in a come together moment and reelect him, forcing Sebelius and the Democrats to change strategy -- the question was what was their strategy, what would the campaign theme be?

Mitt Romney: 51% (+9)
Kathleen Sebelius: 42%

Undecided: 7%

Republicans were jubilant coming out of their convention, with some pundits, namely Karl Rove predicting a Reagan-esque Landslide for Romney. "He gets easily fifty-five percent of the vote and certainly close to four hundred electoral votes and probably over." Even some more moderate sources were predicting a big Romney victory, still Nate Silver was sober in his approach and considered the improving, but still soft economy as a factors to consider, and while he was leaning towards a Romney victory, he was not comfortable let to declare a sweep.

[/

"I'm analyzing trends, state voting history and candidate preferences up until this point. Certainly Mitt Romney is in a better position than Kathleen Sebelius, but it's note quite a landslide that people are expecting or even some are predicting."

[Bigby]

I see we got Bin Laden later ATL. Oh well, perfect time for Romney's sake.

[NHI]

Romney Refuses to be Knocked Down

Kathleen Sebelius came to Denver for her debate with President Romney, ready for a fight, but the Democrat found a formidable debater in Romney. For each point Sebelius leveled at the President, he swatted it down and pivoted to talking about the economy and job growth. Sebelius was criticized for being overly aggressive in her debate, and while some, (namely DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz) thought it was an unfair comment and that Sebelius was being put down for being a woman, polls indicated Romney the clear favorite and winner of the debate.

For Sebelius the debates were the needed game changer. In the final weeks of the campaign she trailed Romney nationally by anywhere from 8 to even 10 points in some polls and was down in the swing states. Even her home state of Kansas, which at the time of the convention was seen as a possible swing was favoring Romney 57 to 41.

Obama 2016?

Obama, for his part did a superb job in his debate against  Vice President Tim Pawlenty. The Vice President appeared stiff and uninspiring was Obama came prepared and was engaging. Pawlenty looked as though he couldn't wait for the debate to be over, and Obama looked ready for it to last. Democrats praised the VP nominee of doing a better job selling the Democratic ticket and Democratic policies than Kathleen Seblius did in her three debates with the President. Obama walked away with favorite and left many Democrats wondering where this Obama was during the primary.

Hurricane Sandy

In the final swing before the Presidential election, Hurricane Sandy devastated the east coast, specifically New Jersey, causing a pause in the campaign and highlighting Romney as he toured the devastation with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, (who's leadership in the crisis raised his profile as a potential Presidential candidate down the line). In the wake of the storm Sebelius' campaign was stalled and could only watch as event shaped her and the election.

In the waning hours of the campaign all the polls not only suggested but outright showed Romney pulling away with a victory on November 6th and Sebelius being left in the dust. The historic nature of her candidacy forgotten and overshadowed by world events and a lackluster campaign. She closed with a final rally in Iowa, before returning to Kansas to await the votes.

[Bigby]

If only Romney could use Hurricane Sandy OTL to his advantage. You just made a very interesting twist.