IL-Chicago Tribune/APC Research: Quinn takes double-digit (!!!) lead

[muon2]

There are two points that stand out in this poll. First is that it's an RV not an LV poll. In Chicago/Cook that makes a difference as RV turnout falls off more in Cook than downstate in the midterm. Second is the partisan breakdown which is 43D-24R, a number that matches the 2008 fall numbers with homestate Obama topping the ticket. That breakdown seems highly unlikely in 2014. It would take a Herculean turnout effort to get close to 2008 values.

[muon2]

There are two points that stand out in this poll. First is that its an RV not an LV poll. In Chicago/Cook that makes a difference as RV turnout falls off in the midterm. Second is the partisan breakdown which is 43D-24R, a number that matches the 2008 fall numbers with homestate Obama topping the ticket. That breakdown seems highly unlikely in 2014. It would take a Herculean turnout effort to get close to 2008 values.

Sorry bro. Looks like your boss is here to stay.

I'll wait for the crosstabs before I draw any conclusions from this.

[muon2]

Once this is in the database, it also means that the Repubs currently have no pickup anymore on the Gov map.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php

And added.

Why did you mark LV in the polling section? The article says RV.

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[muon2]

Once this is in the database, it also means that the Repubs currently have no pickup anymore on the Gov map.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php

And added.

Why did you mark LV in the polling section? The article says RV.

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...

Ah, ok.

When I went to the Tribune page, it said "This is premium content and can only be viewed from within the US".

I'm from Austria and looked for another source and this one said 800 "voters". And in Sept. you would think they'd poll likely voters, not RV ...

I'm a subscriber, so if you ever have questions about Trib content I can let you know.