IL-Chicago Tribune/APC Research: Quinn takes double-digit (!!!) lead
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  IL-Chicago Tribune/APC Research: Quinn takes double-digit (!!!) lead
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Author Topic: IL-Chicago Tribune/APC Research: Quinn takes double-digit (!!!) lead  (Read 47367 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 13, 2014, 08:16:06 AM »

48% Quinn (D)
37% Rauner (R)
  5% Grimm (L)

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-illinois-governor-race-met-0914-20140913-story.html#page=1

What the hell ?

First the internal which had Quinn leading for the first time and now this ?

Did Rauner throw some kids into Lake Michigan or something ?
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Vega
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2014, 08:25:56 AM »



But, uh, wow.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2014, 08:26:38 AM »

Once this is in the database, it also means that the Repubs currently have no pickup anymore on the Gov map.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2014, 08:27:00 AM »

They just remembered that he's a Republican.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2014, 08:31:13 AM »

I mean Rauner is terrible... but wat da eff?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2014, 08:32:04 AM »

Once this is in the database, it also means that the Repubs currently have no pickup anymore on the Gov map.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2014/polls.php

And added.
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windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2014, 08:32:44 AM »

Are you sure this is a relevant poll?
(Not that I doubt Quinn will probably survive)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2014, 08:33:41 AM »

Are you sure this is a relevant poll?
(Not that I doubt Quinn will probably survive)

This poll is likely a mega-outlier, but we'll see.

There have been signs lately that Rauner is in trouble ...
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Franzl
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2014, 08:34:44 AM »

Cheesy
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muon2
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« Reply #9 on: September 13, 2014, 08:44:51 AM »
« Edited: September 13, 2014, 09:03:24 AM by muon2 »

There are two points that stand out in this poll. First is that it's an RV not an LV poll. In Chicago/Cook that makes a difference as RV turnout falls off more in Cook than downstate in the midterm. Second is the partisan breakdown which is 43D-24R, a number that matches the 2008 fall numbers with homestate Obama topping the ticket. That breakdown seems highly unlikely in 2014. It would take a Herculean turnout effort to get close to 2008 values.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2014, 08:49:19 AM »

There are two points that stand out in this poll. First is that its an RV not an LV poll. In Chicago/Cook that makes a difference as RV turnout falls off in the midterm. Second is the partisan breakdown which is 43D-24R, a number that matches the 2008 fall numbers with homestate Obama topping the ticket. That breakdown seems highly unlikely in 2014. It would take a Herculean turnout effort to get close to 2008 values.



Sorry bro. Looks like your boss is here to stay.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2014, 08:51:26 AM »

What an absolute joke of a state.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2014, 08:53:35 AM »
« Edited: September 13, 2014, 08:57:11 AM by ℒief »

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

maybe next time you guys will listen to wise ol' lief, my boy paddy quinn's got this in the bag



looks like the good people of illinois are rejecting the out of touch rich guy for their beloved local boy man of the people
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Panda Express
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2014, 09:01:19 AM »

Pat Quinn is a political beast. I doubt even Abraham Lincoln could topple him at this point.
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Flake
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« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2014, 09:07:40 AM »

I want to wait for other pollsters to confirm this. Unless that football guy with Rauner in that ad did that much damage, I really don't see this type of lead. This poll also way oversampled democrats, and they're not that excited for Quinn this time around.
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muon2
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« Reply #15 on: September 13, 2014, 09:08:37 AM »

There are two points that stand out in this poll. First is that its an RV not an LV poll. In Chicago/Cook that makes a difference as RV turnout falls off in the midterm. Second is the partisan breakdown which is 43D-24R, a number that matches the 2008 fall numbers with homestate Obama topping the ticket. That breakdown seems highly unlikely in 2014. It would take a Herculean turnout effort to get close to 2008 values.



Sorry bro. Looks like your boss is here to stay.

I'll wait for the crosstabs before I draw any conclusions from this.
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muon2
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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2014, 09:10:59 AM »


Why did you mark LV in the polling section? The article says RV.

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2014, 09:26:10 AM »


Why did you mark LV in the polling section? The article says RV.

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Ah, ok.

When I went to the Tribune page, it said "This is premium content and can only be viewed from within the US".

I'm from Austria and looked for another source and this one said 800 "voters". And in Sept. you would think they'd poll likely voters, not RV ... Tongue
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Gass3268
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« Reply #18 on: September 13, 2014, 10:32:34 AM »

May God always bless Cook County!
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2014, 10:33:13 AM »


Do you need a tissue?
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muon2
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« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2014, 10:36:44 AM »


Why did you mark LV in the polling section? The article says RV.

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Ah, ok.

When I went to the Tribune page, it said "This is premium content and can only be viewed from within the US".

I'm from Austria and looked for another source and this one said 800 "voters". And in Sept. you would think they'd poll likely voters, not RV ... Tongue

I'm a subscriber, so if you ever have questions about Trib content I can let you know.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2014, 10:37:42 AM »

Quinn better thank Republican primary voters for choosing a candidate who makes Mitt Romney look like a true man of the people, I doubt Quinn would be breaking away from Dillard like this.
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windjammer
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« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2014, 10:38:28 AM »

I quite agree with muon. The lead is probably less important, like 5-6 I guess.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2014, 10:39:27 AM »


Stop whining Phil.
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#BernieBros4Kamala
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« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2014, 10:42:29 AM »

Suck it, WAA.
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