Harold Ford's internal polls show bad news...

[King]

From The Hill:

A poll paid for by Rep. Harold Ford (D-Tenn.) shows the congressman losing to or barely breaking even with his most likely Republican opponents in a potential Senate race.

While the poll makes it clear that Ford should easily trounce his only primary opponent, state Sen. Rosalind Kurita (D), it also shows that Democrats face an uphill battle to pick up the seat being vacated by Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) next year.

Harrison Hickman, the Democratic pollster whose firm, Global Strategy Group, conducted the survey, suggested the new numbers are cause for relief, saying they dispel “the conventional wisdom … that Tennessee is a slam dunk for the Republicans.”

But the fact remains that Tennessee looks to be an increasingly conservative state that, in recent years, has elected Republicans to federal offices. Then-Gov. Bush beat Vice President Al Gore in Gore’s home state in 2000, and in 2004 Bush expanded his margin, capturing 57 percent of the vote compared to Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry’s 43 percent.

While Democrat Phil Bredesen managed to win the governorship in 2002 — after Republican Van Hilleary emerged from a bloody GOP primary and Bredesen spent $3 million of his own money — much of the state remains out of bounds for Democrats. In key rural or mostly rural counties from Madison, in the west, to Knox, Washington and Sullivan, in the east, Bush clobbered Kerry.

Brian Nick, Singer’s counterpart at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), responded to the poll numbers simply by pointing to GOP Senate wins in neighboring Southern states last year: “South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina.”

He added: “None of those races were even very competitive last time. … In traditional Southern states, these are GOP strongholds, and as the [Democratic] party nationally continues to drift more and more to its left and becomes best friends with groups like MoveOn.org, it makes the GOP’s job a lot easier.”

Ford did not issue a press release touting the poll numbers, but Jim Hester, the Tennessee Democratic Party’s executive director, said a March 31 Global Strategy memo with the figures had been floating around Democratic circles in Nashville for the past few days.

The congressman declined to comment.

A Democratic source in Washington said Ford, who has not officially announced he is running for the Senate seat, and his campaign team “didn’t want to get ahead of themselves.”

According to the survey’s findings, in a possible match-up with former Rep. Ed Bryant (R), Ford and Bryant each won 30 percent of the vote, with an additional 10 percent leaning toward Bryant and 8 percent likely to back Ford.

Bryant was the most likely Republican to win the GOP Senate nomination, with 35 percent of his party’s support, according to the poll. Trailing Bryant, with 26 percent, was Hilleary, the recent gubernatorial candidate and a former congressman.

Against Hilleary in a possible general-election showdown, the poll showed Ford winning 29 percent of the vote compared to Hilleary’s 32 percent. Nine percent of voters leaned toward Ford and another 9 toward Hilleary.

The only Republican in the mix Ford beat was Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, with Ford garnering 28 percent versus Corker’s 24, and 11 percent and 10 percent leaning toward the Democrat and Republican, respectively.
But Corker was also the least likely Republican to win his party’s nomination, the survey indicates: He won 15 percent of the Republican vote in a possible GOP primary.

Hickman, the Democratic pollster, pointed out that Bryant and Corker, as well as Hilleary, have run statewide. Bryant and Corker previously ran for the Senate.

“They’ve made their case to the voters in the past and, in all those cases, have higher name recognition than Congressman Ford,” said Hickman, who polled for Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign and John Edwards’s 2004 White House bid. Hickman added that Ford “is … very strong with Democrats.”

Hester, the state Democrats’ executive director, said Ford barnstormed the state during the congressional recess, particularly in eastern Tennessee.

Democrats added that Bredesen, a business-savvy, middle-of-the-road Democrat who enjoys strong support at home, would be at the top of the ticket next year.

Rep. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.), who had seriously considered running for Frist’s seat before bowing out in October, acknowledged that the governor is popular.

In a poll he conducted last year, Wamp said, the governor’s favorable-unfavorable ratio was 4.5 to 1. The congressman said most politicians would like to be at 3 to 1 or higher.

Wamp also called Ford “articulate and smooth” and said the fifth-term Democrat had made inroads in GOP bastions in eastern Tennessee. But he said a recent scandal surrounding his uncle, John Ford, had tarnished the family name. Wamp further noted that his survey showed Ford’s favorable-unfavorable ratings at 1.4 to 1.

Democrats countered that Ford’s numbers demonstrate just the opposite — namely, that he remains a contender despite the scandal and Tennessee’s political leanings.

Wamp, a Corker supporter, called the mayor’s flagging poll numbers a question of name recognition. Once Corker starts dipping into his bulging war chest, Wamp said, his ratings will go up.

The telephone survey was conducted March 22-24 among 600 registered Tennessee voters “who they say definitely or probably will vote” in 2006, a Global Strategy memo with the poll numbers states.


Well, the Democrats dreamed...

[??????????]

Thats what happens when all you are running on is your name. All name, no substance.

[J.R. Brown]

Of course, he isn't running yet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The numbers for all candidates are too low to mean a great deal IMO.

Still, the Democrats currently have a big problem in TN: the growth of the Nashville suburbs. Now, when they get older this'll be less of a problem but that's quite a way off yet.

[ian]

Do you think Gore might run for the Senate again?

[Keystone Phil]

Do you think Gore might run for the Senate again?

One could only hope.

Yeah, I agree. I hope the man runs for some office and gets crushed. You don't know how happy I'd be.

[MaC]

Phil, Gore's harmless now.  He's got no political credibilty, his endorsement of Howard Dean meant Dean's downfall, and a lot of Democrats hate him.  Tennessee's too conservative a state if they have Frist and Alexander as senators for him to bother.  He won't run, he's not that dumb, and there's no reason for him to.  No point in bashing him for 5 years ago.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, Gore's harmless now.  He's got no political credibilty, his endorsement of Howard Dean meant Dean's downfall, and a lot of Democrats hate him.  Tennessee's too conservative a state if they have Frist and Alexander as senators for him to bother.  He won't run, he's not that dumb, and there's no reason for him to.  No point in bashing him for 5 years ago.

Al Gore is the politician I despise the most. I want to see him run and fail.

[??????????]

Gores' homestate isn't TN. lol

[PADem]

Thats what happens when all you are running on is your name. All name, no substance.

George W Bush. Case and Point

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So the polls show a pretty even race 20 months before the election. How is this bad news?

[opebo]

I'd say a black man is more likely to get lynched in Tennessee than elected senator.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just  off back to your 12 year old

[Keystone Phil]

Thats what happens when all you are running on is your name. All name, no substance.

George W Bush. Case and Point

Better case and point - Bob Casey, Jr. Most people see the name and that's it.

[ian]

Phil, Gore's harmless now.  He's got no political credibilty, his endorsement of Howard Dean meant Dean's downfall, and a lot of Democrats hate him.  Tennessee's too conservative a state if they have Frist and Alexander as senators for him to bother.  He won't run, he's not that dumb, and there's no reason for him to.  No point in bashing him for 5 years ago.

Al Gore is the politician I despise the most. I want to see him run and fail.

Wow, Phil, that's the second time in two days where we agree on something!  Ay Carumba!

[MissCatholic]

I think that Ford could run a good race for the dems.

Fox news likes him (has to be a good point surely) and it would be interesting to see what type of vote Ford could get from a state that gone right in the last decade.

[TheresNoMoney]

Ford is definitely an underdog without much to lose. It will be an interesting race.