The Polls thread...

[Democratic Hawk]

Two new polls:

YouGov (The Daily Telegraph, 18/4): Lab 36%; Con 33% and LD 20% - an overall Labour majority of 96 (www.electoralcalculus.co.uk)

ICM (Daily Mirror/GMTV, 18/4): Lab 41% ; Con 33% and LD 20% - an overall Labour majority of 148

I'd like to think ICM are pretty reliable - but that said, I don't want Labour voters getting complacent, which is why I'm out on the streets as though we're running a couple of points behind!

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Three new polls:

1) Mori (Financial Times, 19/4):

Lab 40 ; Con 32; and LD 21 - an overall Labour majority of 146 (www.electoralcalculus.co.uk)

2) NOP (The Independent, 19/4)

Lab 37; Con 32; and LD 21 - an overall Labour majority of 116

If Gordon Brown were Labour Leader, then Lab would have a 20-point lead over the Tories: Lab 48%; Con 28% and LD 17% - an overall Labour majority of 262

3) Populus (The Times, 19/4)

Lab 40 ; Con 31; and LD 21 - an overall Labour majority of 156

Looking good for Labour but I caution against complacency

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

From 20/4, Populus/The Times will be doing a daily tracking poll (with a sample of 1400):

20/4/05

Lab 39%; Con 33%; and LD 21% - an overall of Labour majority of 136 (www.electoralcalculus.co.uk)

It's interesting that the LD's seem to be stuck on 21%, while the Tories' seem to be stuck around 33%. Change from 2001, Labour down 3-points; Lib Dems up-3 - indicating a 1.5% swing from Lab to Con

Dave

[angus]

1. Polls in the U.K have a habit of exaggerating any swings or trends... especially those that result from yesterday's headlins.

and why do you suppose?

2. The incumbent party usually does better than the polls suggest (2001 was very much an exception to this rule) because, unlike the U.S, undecideds usually break towards the incumbent.

that limey stiff upper lip.  canadians are like that too I think.

3. Don't read much into demographic or regional results. The samples are just too small to be useful.

I suppose this answers #1.

9. Remember that most U.K polls would be regarded as junk polls in the U.S

sample size again?

10. The only poll that counts is on May the 5th

you should attribute this quote to angus.  but it's the thought that counts. 

well, looking over this thread, and assuming all polls are equally worthless, we seem to be headed for an approximately 40/30/20 split.  That's what I'd thought before I saw Major on a television interview, but he was keen on making the point that he thought he had seen plenty evidence for an upset.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

and why do you suppose?

I think it has something to do with the fact that all published polls are commisioned and published by newspapers or TV.

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They were last time

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Partly. The media thing is another reason.

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O.K

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Yes, but he f***ed Edwina Currie so I don't think he has very good judgement

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

whose the SNP and why are they so bad?

[Banana Republic]

whose the SNP and why are they so bad?

They are the party in Scotland that wants to leave the United Kingdom. Conservatives don't like them because they are socialists, liberals and social democrats don't like them because they are nationalists.

[angus]

whose the SNP and why are they so bad?

They are the party in Scotland that wants to leave the United Kingdom. Conservatives don't like them because they are socialists, liberals and social democrats don't like them because they are nationalists.

...or what I call the angus republicans. 

Rock on SNP!!!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Conservatives don't like them because they are socialists,

Socialists? Oh, no, no, no... Salmond (who, for reasons of avoiding a libel writ, could be described as "interesting" links to the oil industry) wants to turn Scotland into some sort of tax haven and wants corperation tax slashed.

Unsuprisingly he hated seeing his fat cat oil baron buddies getting squeezed by the budget...

[angus]

Conservatives don't like them because they are socialists,

Socialists? Oh, no, no, no... Salmond (who, for reasons of avoiding a libel writ, could be described as "interesting" links to the oil industry) wants to turn Scotland into some sort of tax haven and wants corperation tax slashed.

Unsuprisingly he hated seeing his fat cat oil baron buddies getting squeezed by the budget...

okay, Sharpton Republicans then.  anyway, they're nationalistic, but aren't quite on the same page as the paleoconservatives due to their general platform and people's manifesto to improve conditions for the lowest on the social ladder, the health care, etc.  I agree that calling them socialist is a huge stretch, and I suspect BananaRepublic's comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek, and they have a sleaze factor, not unlike the Sharpton Republicans, of which I am the only bona-fide example, but they're certainly in the unenviable position of offending both the classical Left and Right in their society.  That alone is admirable, imho.

"Since you can't seem to keep your big mouth shut, just try to do the second best thing:  offend everyone equally."
    --The Real Angus McCloud

"Grease me up, woman!"
    --Groundskeeper Willie

[Notre Dame rules!]

Al,


Why be so mild with the avatar?  Why not pull out the big guns and show Hitler?


Other than the fact that you may not agree with the BNP, do you have any real evidence of linkage to Musollini, or is just an attempt to smear them?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Other than the fact that you may not agree with the BNP, do you have any real evidence of linkage to Musollini, or is just an attempt to smear them?

Eh? The one picture is of Galloway next to a picture of Saddam. The other picture is of Mosely next to Mussolini

[Democratic Hawk]

New poll (21/4/05):

ICM/The Guardian: Lab 39%; Con 33% and Lib Dem 22% - an overall Labour majority of 136 (www.electoralcalculus.co.uk)

Things are pretty constant on last week's - the Lib Dems are up 1 and Others down 1

The Populus/The Times tracking poll hasn't changed at all on yesterday with Labour on 39%; the Tories 33% and the Lib Dems 21%

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM also did a poll of postal voters; I think Labour had a lead of over 20pts

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New polls today:

ICM/Sunday Torygraph: Lab 39, Con 33, LD 21
YouGov/Sunday Times: Lab 37, Con 33, LD 23
CR/Sindie: Lab 40, Con 35, LD 18

They all sorta fit within the MoE for once

[Democratic Hawk]

ICM also did a poll of postal voters; I think Labour had a lead of over 20pts

Labour led the Tories among postals by 44 to 26, with the Lib Dems on 22

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

New polls today:

ICM/Sunday Torygraph: Lab 39, Con 33, LD 21
YouGov/Sunday Times: Lab 37, Con 33, LD 23
CR/Sindie: Lab 40, Con 35, LD 18

They all sorta fit within the MoE for once

All would produce confortable Labour majorities (www.electoralcalculus.co.uk) of 136, 100 and 130 seats, respectively

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Poll update (25/4):

ICM (The Daily Mirror/GMTV) Lab 39; Con 33; and LD 21 - an overall Labour majority of 136

Populus (The Times/ITV - tracking poll) Lab 41% ; Con 32%; and LD 20% - an overall Labour majority of 160

YouGov (The Daily Telegraph) Lab 37%; Con 33%; and LD 24% - an overall Labour majority of 100

The ICM and YouGov polls seem to be pretty stable for the time being

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Populus/Times Tracking poll: Lab 41 (n/c), Con 33 (+1), LD 19 (-1), Oth. 7 (n/c)

In addition to that this is the Essex Uni tracker:



One thing I've noticed is a rising amount of disbelief and desperation in poll analysis from certain people.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New MORI poll:

Lab 40, Con 30, LD 23 (All naming party)
Lab 36, Con 34, LD 23 (All certain to vote)

[Democratic Hawk]

The latest BES (University of Essex) rolling survey figures are as follows:

1) Vote Intentions Among Likely Voters

Labour 39.4%
Conservative 33.4%
Lib Dem 19.9%

2) Vote Intentions All Respondents

Labour 37.5
Conservative 30.6
Lib Dem 22.7

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If I didn't know how tracking polls work I'd be tempted to call that a Sedgemore backlash

[Silent Hunter]

On the average of the polls, there's only a 1% Labour to Tory swing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Times tracker is something like 40/31/21