Why did Kennedy do poorly in Ohio?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

He lost the state by six and a half percentage points.  Why did he lag behind so much, in comparison to the national average? 

[GaussLaw]

Anti-Catholic sentiment + the state was traditionally Republican at the time

[Del Tachi]

Ohio was much more Republican at the time in general, this really didn't change until the 1990s

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

I don't think he jibed well with Ohio. Too aristocratic.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Anti-Catholic sentiment + the state was traditionally Republican at the time

I doubt whatever anti-Catholic sentiment there was in Ohio was greater than in the nation as a whole given the long history of Catholics in the state (typically of the middle class German Republican variety).  It is true that the politics of Ohio were fairly Republican and conservative then.  If you compare the difference between the national and state margin, it's not far off from what it had been in 56.

[TJ in Oregon]

Anti-Catholic sentiment + the state was traditionally Republican at the time

I doubt whatever anti-Catholic sentiment there was in Ohio was greater than in the nation as a whole given the long history of Catholics in the state (typically of the middle class German Republican variety).  It is true that the politics of Ohio were fairly Republican and conservative then.  If you compare the difference between the national and state margin, it's not far off from what it had been in 56.

Something along these lines. German Catholics, unlike Catholics of most other ethnicities, weren't necessarily Democrats in that era even when it came to JFK. Purely anecdotal, but a decent fraction of my German Catholic ancestors still voted against JFK. The result map bears this theory out somewhat:



Nixon won Putnam and Mercer Counties, albeit barely, both of which are pushing 70% Catholic today and probably higher back then (the German Catholic settlers of those areas came when they built the canals; long before 1960). JFK probably did better than a Generic D among German Catholics, hence the shade of blue of the counties in NW OH are clearly related to the % Catholic. But he certainly wasn't pulling 80% and probably even lost Ohio's German Catholic vote.

Also notice JFK's loss of heavily German Catholic Hamilton County. (Granted, the other demographic groups there wouldn't have been friendly to him)

The Polish/Irish/Italian Catholics in Cleveland are of course a different story.

[DS0816]

Ohio was much more Republican at the time in general, this really didn't change until the 1990s

Ohio's unbroken, leading bellwether streak dates back to 1964. Since that presidential election cycle, Ohio has been carried [by all winners] with a percentage margin within five points in spread from the national numbers [in the U.S. Popular Vote].

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

In addition to the demographics of Ohio, the fact that Nixon was Eisenhower's VP was significant in Nixon doing so well in the election as a whole. The economy was good, the world stage was mostly stable, Nixon had the "experience" advantage, and Nixon was still modestly liked at the time.

[Mr. Smith]

This only proves that Nevada is more reliable than Ohio as a bellwether as it did vote for Kennedy, even when the rest of the West did not (one state by absentee ballots).

Also FDR lost Ohio at one point.

Nevada has been all reliable in every election sans 1976.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

This only proves that Nevada is more reliable than Ohio as a bellwether as it did vote for Kennedy, even when the rest of the West did not (one state by absentee ballots).

Also FDR lost Ohio at one point.

Nevada has been all reliable in every election sans 1976.

Yep, so long as you don't count anything before 1912.

[Mechaman]

This only proves that Nevada is more reliable than Ohio as a bellwether as it did vote for Kennedy, even when the rest of the West did not (one state by absentee ballots).

Also FDR lost Ohio at one point.

Nevada has been all reliable in every election sans 1976.

Yep, so long as you don't count anything before 1912.

loliseewhatyoudidthere

[Liberalrocks]

I guess along with this question I would ask: Why did Humphrey in 1968 poll better then JFK coming close to an actual win in the state within just a couple of points of Nixon ? Nixon did better in Ohio in 1960 then he did in 1968.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Ohio was much more Republican at the time in general, this really didn't change until the 1990s

Ohio's unbroken, leading bellwether streak dates back to 1964. Since that presidential election cycle, Ohio has been carried [by all winners] with a percentage margin within five points in spread from the national numbers [in the U.S. Popular Vote].

Gore won in 2000 though, so Ohio got it wrong then.

[Del Tachi]

Ohio was much more Republican at the time in general, this really didn't change until the 1990s

Ohio's unbroken, leading bellwether streak dates back to 1964. Since that presidential election cycle, Ohio has been carried [by all winners] with a percentage margin within five points in spread from the national numbers [in the U.S. Popular Vote].

Ohio went from a Cook PVI of about R+5 in 1960 to only R+1 in 2012, with most of that change coming during the 1980s and 1990s. 

[Badger]

Ohio was much more Republican at the time in general, this really didn't change until the 1990s

Ohio's unbroken, leading bellwether streak dates back to 1964. Since that presidential election cycle, Ohio has been carried [by all winners] with a percentage margin within five points in spread from the national numbers [in the U.S. Popular Vote].

That actually doesn't appear to be the case. Kennedy underperformed in OH compared to all subsequent Democrats (though the PVI wasn't +5 R; it was under +4). Just 4 years later OH was +2 D, and in subsequent elections it consistently held a PVI that was around +1 PVI give or take a fraction of a percent (Bush in 2000 barely broke +2 R PVI, and OH was actually about half a point +D in 72). The PVI was pretty consistent post-1960.
Ohio went from a Cook PVI of about R+5 in 1960 to only R+1 in 2012, with most of that change coming during the 1980s and 1990s.