WP: GOP's chances of Senate majority down from 86% to just 52%

[eric82oslo]

According to Washington Post's Election Lab forecast, Republicans' chances of winning control of the Senate has been reduced from basically a sure thing back in mid-June, standing then at 86% against 14% for Senate Democrats, to today's numbers which show a true toss-up, only favoring the GOP by 52-48%. Now that's what I call movement! The GOP tsunami has turned into stillwater.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/03/our-senate-model-is-moving-in-democrats-direction-all-of-a-sudden-why/

[Maxwell]

This model is moving in Braley's direction, which is beyond stupid.

[windjammer]

This model is moving in Braley's direction, which is beyond stupid.

What has he done recently???

[Miles]

This model is moving in Braley's direction, which is beyond stupid.

What has he done recently???

I agree with ya'll. Just going by the polls, though, Ernst has gone from leading in several June polls, to now just tying Braley.

The WaPo article says its model is weighing polls more heavily now, so that could be it.

[Maxwell]

This model is moving in Braley's direction, which is beyond stupid.

What has he done recently???

I agree with ya'll. Just going by the polls, though, Ernst has gone from leading in several June polls, to now just tying Braley.

The WaPo article says its model is weighing polls more heavily now, so that could be it.

If you take into account R-hack polls like Vox Populi and Loras College, maybe that's true, but it looks like the race has stabilized into a tie race.

[ProudModerate2]

52% probability of Republican takeover sounds about correct.
I say it is a little higher (as of today Sept 3)  ... maybe about a 55% Republican takeover.

[Maxwell]

52% probability of Republican takeover sounds about correct.
I say it is a little higher (as of today Sept 3)  ... maybe about a 55% Republican takeover.

I don't think it's entirely wrong (due to my theory on Republicans screwing up close races), but the reasoning they came to it, to me, is entirely stupid.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Their model is flawed. According to it, Hagan is nearly safe in NC. Illinois, New Jersey, Virginia, Massachusetts, New Mexico and Oregon are MORE competitive than New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Michigan. And McConnell is apparently in almost no danger at all.

[backtored]

This model is moving in Braley's direction, which is beyond stupid.

Braley has completely bombed his campaign and he is still even with Ernst.  Now that he is hitting back against the Republican, it wouldn't at all be a surprise to see a small lead open up.  I've never bought into the idea that Iowa was easy picking for the GOP.  Can Ernst win?  Absolutely.  But it is really problematic that she can't even take a lead against a pretty weak opponent.

[Matty]

Their model was way too high to begin with.

[dmmidmi]

Surprise! Washington Post proves yet again that they're terrible.

[7,052,770]

This model is moving in Braley's direction, which is beyond stupid.

Braley has completely bombed his campaign and he is still even with Ernst.  Now that he is hitting back against the Republican, it wouldn't at all be a surprise to see a small lead open up.  I've never bought into the idea that Iowa was easy picking for the GOP.  Can Ernst win?  Absolutely.  But it is really problematic that she can't even take a lead against a pretty weak opponent.

In a few months we'll add Iowa 2014 to the list of winnable Senate races Republicans blew by nominating an embarrassingly terrible candidate.  Unfortunately that may be the only one this time.

[King]

There's simply no enthusiasm for this election existing at all. Teabaggers are getting defeated are also defeating their interest. The international conflicts dominating the news cycle are complicated and not really falling on partisan lines.

If we were a parliament, it wouldn't have been called.