FL: Tampa Bay Times: Scott opening lead
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Author Topic: FL: Tampa Bay Times: Scott opening lead  (Read 2415 times)
Miles
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« on: September 02, 2014, 11:14:10 PM »

Article.

Scott (R)- 40.9%
Crist (D)- 35.7%
Wyllie (L)- 6.3%

Scott (R)- 43.7%
Crist (D)- 37.6%
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henster
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2014, 11:25:22 PM »

The poll is R+5 when party ID was even in 2010.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2014, 11:27:40 PM »

This poll was weighed by party ID, which is a big no no in polling. That's how Rasmussen flubbed up on polls.
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2014, 11:46:23 PM »

Though the undecideds are high, you usually don't see Democrats winning Independents while still losing overall:

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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2014, 12:01:18 AM »

If Rick Perry runs for president, he should base his campaign on winning Florida. They seem to love criminals named Rick.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2014, 12:14:46 AM »

If Rick Perry runs for president, he should base his campaign on winning Florida. They seem to love criminals named Rick.

If he picks Scott Water as his running mate, they can have  a Rick / Scott ticket.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2014, 12:19:05 AM »

If Rick Perry runs for president, he should base his campaign on winning Florida. They seem to love criminals named Rick.

I dont think.neither one has it locked in yet. It is a deadheat.any its anyone,'s game.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2014, 01:15:11 AM »

It's time to toss this poll right where it belongs... IN THE GARBAGE.
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Badger
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« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2014, 09:24:53 AM »

The fact even Krazen hasn't bothered to chime in about excellent news, dominating, or thrashing should tell us all we need to know about this poll's cross-tabs. Tongue
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ajc0918
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« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2014, 10:05:14 AM »

The Tampa Bay Times, while a great newspaper, is awful at polling.

Take their poll on Nov 3, 2012 that had Romney +6:
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/tampa-bay-times-fla-poll-romney-51-obama-45
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Free Bird
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« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2014, 02:23:40 PM »

It's time to toss this poll right where it belongs... IN THE GARBAGE.

If it had Crist up you'd cry "DOMINATING!"
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2014, 02:48:11 PM »

It's time to toss this poll right where it belongs... IN THE GARBAGE.

If it had Crist up you'd cry "DOMINATING!"

No, he wouldn't, and it's ironic you say that since (to my understanding) the phrased was popularized by a rather hackish Republican user who contributes very little except these sorts of comments on Republican-friendly polls.

Anyway, this isn't a partisan issue, the poll is junk because it uses decimals, is weighted by party ID, shows an R+5 sample even though party ID was even in 2010, and showed Romney up 6 in 2012 the day before the Election. Is that really not enough for you?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2014, 03:01:46 PM »

It's time to toss this poll right where it belongs... IN THE GARBAGE.

If it had Crist up you'd cry "DOMINATING!"

Don't make me toss you right where you belong... IN THE GARBAGE.
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Vega
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« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2014, 03:03:52 PM »

The poll is R+5 when party ID was even in 2010.

Yeah, and this is a bit concerning.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2014, 04:05:50 PM »

It's time to toss this poll right where it belongs... IN THE GARBAGE.

If it had Crist up you'd cry "DOMINATING!"

No, he wouldn't, and it's ironic you say that since (to my understanding) the phrased was popularized by a rather hackish Republican user who contributes very little except these sorts of comments on Republican-friendly polls.

Anyway, this isn't a partisan issue, the poll is junk because it uses decimals, is weighted by party ID, shows an R+5 sample even though party ID was even in 2010, and showed Romney up 6 in 2012 the day before the Election. Is that really not enough for you?

Never even heard of this pollster nor this information. Damn
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2014, 04:23:16 PM »

It's time to toss this poll right where it belongs... IN THE GARBAGE.

If it had Crist up you'd cry "DOMINATING!"

Don't make me toss you right where you belong... IN THE GARBAGE.

This made me chuckle.
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Taylor Swift Boat Veterans for Truth
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« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2014, 09:05:41 PM »

It's time to toss this poll right where it belongs... IN THE GARBAGE.

If it had Crist up you'd cry "DOMINATING!"

Anyway, this isn't a partisan issue, the poll is junk because it uses decimals, is weighted by party ID, shows an R+5 sample even though party ID was even in 2010, and showed Romney up 6 in 2012 the day before the Election. Is that really not enough for you?

This is false. The Romney+6 poll was conducted by Braun Research, while this poll was conducted by UF's Bob Graham Center.

To summarize Matt Florell's criticisms, it has a fairly small sample size, weighed by media market (rather unheard of for public polling), failed to weigh by gender and race. Additionally, the problem here isn't that it's weighted by party ID but rather that it chose a strange way of doing so. I wouldn't consider this accurate.
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henster
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« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2014, 09:15:36 PM »

Even if the poll weren't junk if I'm an incumbent 41% is the last place I would want to be there have been few polls with Scott even breaking 45%.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2014, 09:15:46 PM »

Ehh... 2018 is the election that matters for FL Democrats.  And if I were them, I would rather be running at the end of Scott's 2nd term than trying to get Crist re-elected against a normal, ethical generic GOP opponent.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2014, 11:22:08 PM »

Ehh... 2018 is the election that matters for FL Democrats.  And if I were them, I would rather be running at the end of Scott's 2nd term than trying to get Crist re-elected against a normal, ethical generic GOP opponent.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2014, 02:26:55 PM »

Ehh... 2018 is the election that matters for FL Democrats.  And if I were them, I would rather be running at the end of Scott's 2nd term than trying to get Crist re-elected against a normal, ethical generic GOP opponent.


Hilary Clinton should she be nominee will do exceptionally well in FL. And FL and PA and WI, IL and CO senate map, will be keys to our majority party in 2016.
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Taylor Swift Boat Veterans for Truth
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« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2014, 02:30:49 PM »

Ehh... 2018 is the election that matters for FL Democrats.  And if I were them, I would rather be running at the end of Scott's 2nd term than trying to get Crist re-elected against a normal, ethical generic GOP opponent.

I really rather wouldn't - it's probably easier to re-elect an incumbent Democrat than try to win an open seat (with what candidate?) against Adam Putnam.
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ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #22 on: September 04, 2014, 03:13:48 PM »

Even if the poll weren't junk if I'm an incumbent 41% is the last place I would want to be there have been few polls with Scott even breaking 45%.
How can I take your opinions on polls seriously when you can't even make a post without a run on sentence?

Ehh... 2018 is the election that matters for FL Democrats.  And if I were them, I would rather be running at the end of Scott's 2nd term than trying to get Crist re-elected against a normal, ethical generic GOP opponent.

I really rather wouldn't - it's probably easier to re-elect an incumbent Democrat than try to win an open seat (with what candidate?) against Adam Putnam.
Isn't Crist term limited though? He can't run for reelection in 2018 IIRC. If I am right (and a little research on my part would most likely prove me wrong), the Democrats will have to find someone else to run. Crist will run for Senate in that case (unless Nelson doesn't retire, but I suspect he has run his last race).
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Flake
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« Reply #23 on: September 05, 2014, 10:54:45 AM »

Even if the poll weren't junk if I'm an incumbent 41% is the last place I would want to be there have been few polls with Scott even breaking 45%.
How can I take your opinions on polls seriously when you can't even make a post without a run on sentence?

Ehh... 2018 is the election that matters for FL Democrats.  And if I were them, I would rather be running at the end of Scott's 2nd term than trying to get Crist re-elected against a normal, ethical generic GOP opponent.

I really rather wouldn't - it's probably easier to re-elect an incumbent Democrat than try to win an open seat (with what candidate?) against Adam Putnam.
Isn't Crist term limited though? He can't run for reelection in 2018 IIRC. If I am right (and a little research on my part would most likely prove me wrong), the Democrats will have to find someone else to run. Crist will run for Senate in that case (unless Nelson doesn't retire, but I suspect he has run his last race).


I think Florida election law states that people are term limited after two consecutive terms.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #24 on: September 06, 2014, 12:37:02 PM »

Decimals.
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