DKE: Democrats have 47% chance of holding the Senate

[Miles]

Article.

Democratic chances of winning in competitive races:

AK: 82%
NH: 82%
MI: 72%
CO: 63%
NC: 58%
IA: 51%
LA: 46%
AR: 37%
KY: 21%
GA: 13%

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[Senator Cris]

AK: 82%
NH: 82%

No.

[Free Bird]

AK: 82%
NH: 82%

No.

[Free Bird]

Typical Kos

[DrScholl]

It will be interesting to see how many Republican poster disappear from around the boards when their predictions turn out to be horribly wrong. It happened in 2012, where a few very repetitive posters claimed polls were being faked and that Romney had a huge lead, but after the election, they didn't post anymore. It was so hilarious.

[Miles]

Typical Kos

Yep, they're also predicting a net loss for Democratic Governors, though the CW is that they'll break even or gain seats.

I know, 'typical.

[Maxwell]

Even with the collapse of Braley, I still wouldn't put that race ahead of North Carolina.

And the whole Alaska/New Hampshire thing is obviously dumb, but otherwise this looks fairly accurate.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think DK relies too much on just polling, that's why %'s for Alaska and Iowa seem weird.

[Miles]

I think DK relies too much on just polling, that's why %'s for Alaska and Iowa seem weird.

And on the other side would be Sabato, who's the most gut-driven of the handicappers; he's come up with some unique rankings, too (KY as Likely R, MN only Lean D, etc.). 'Shows the limitations of both extremes.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think DK relies too much on just polling, that's why %'s for Alaska and Iowa seem weird.

And on the other side would be Sabato, who's the most gut-driven of the handicappers; he's come up with some unique rankings, too (KY as Likely R, MN only Lean D, etc.). 'Shows the limitations of both extremes.

I agree.

[DrScholl]

What else should be relied on but polling? Historical trends don't always hold up and gut feelings aren't rooted in fact.

[SWE]

Typical Kos

Indeed, Daily Kos is such a Republican hack site.

[Free Bird]

Typical Kos

Yep, they're also predicting a net loss for Democratic Governors, though the CW is that they'll break even or gain seats.

I know, 'typical.

I was talking Alaska, New Hampshire, and Iowa

[The Other Castro]

From the guys that say Ige only has an 11% chance of winning, I'm not surprised they gave Begich 82%. Seems like they're just incredibly biased towards polling and not for specific parties.

[ElectionsGuy]

What else should be relied on but polling? Historical trends don't always hold up and gut feelings aren't rooted in fact.

Gut feelings shouldn't be factored in. But approval ratings, partisan makeup of the state, likely voter turnout, and yes historical trends should be. More information generally strengthens the hypothesis. All I'm saying is these should be factored in more. If we just relied on polls, Kerry would've beaten Bush in 2004 and 2012 would've been a dead even race.

[KCDem]

Kos is one of the better predictors, but his Alaska % is off I think.

[Never]

Alaska, New Hampshire, and North Carolina seem too favorable to the Democrats, and I suspect Pryor is being slightly underestimated in Arkansas.

I wouldn't too much weight in Alaska's polling in the manner DailyKos seems to.

I would only decrease the Democrat's chances of winning in New Hampshire slightly, because while one poll showing Brown making this race competitive isn't enough for me, 70-75% appears to be a better estimate of Shaheen's chances of winning, similar to Peter's 72% in Michigan.

[SWE]

Typical Kos

Yep, they're also predicting a net loss for Democratic Governors, though the CW is that they'll break even or gain seats.

I know, 'typical.

I was talking Alaska, New Hampshire, and Iowa

While this is definitely favorable to Begich, if anything, they're seriously overestimating Brown

[Vosem]

It will be interesting to see how many Republican poster disappear from around the boards when their predictions turn out to be horribly wrong. It happened in 2012, where a few very repetitive posters claimed polls were being faked and that Romney had a huge lead, but after the election, they didn't post anymore. It was so hilarious.

I will now accept my accolades?

[Vega]

Considering how this is based exclusively on polls, I'd say it's right.