Which Senators will retire in 2016?

[Dixie Reborn]

Who do you think will retire in 2016, and if so will these retirements spark competitive races?

[Free Bird]

McCain
Mikulski
Shelby, Grassley, and Isakson SHOULD retire, but they won't

[Suburbia]

1) Shelby
2) Crapo
3) Mikulski
4) Isakson

If Shelby retires, the GOP field in Alabama is wide open. Mo Brooks could run, or Bradley Byrne. The Democratic field may be weak, unless Bobby Bright, former congressman runs.

If Mikulski retires, the Democrats may want Martin O'Malley to run, but he may run for president instead, but former congressman Frank Kratovil may run. Republicans may ask for former RNC chair Michael Steele.

If Isakson retires, the GOP field in Georgia is wide open. Karen Handel, Phil Gingrey, Paul Broun, may run. Sam Olens, etc. The Democrats may look at Roy Barnes, former governor, or Jason Carter (if he loses to Gov. Deal in 2014)

If Crapo retires, the GOP could look at Rep. Raul Labrador, or another GOP congressman. The Democrats could look at Walt Minnick, the former congressman.

[Free Bird]

Didn't Isakson say he's running as well as Shelby? Maybe if the former changes his mind, Kingston will give it another go

[Never]

McCain
Shelby
Mikulski
Possibly Kirk due to potential health concerns.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A number of Senators, including Shelby, already announced they're running. Of course, so did Inouye, and that didn't work out for him.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Short Version: I expect McCain, Grassley, Paul, Wyden, Boxer, Mikulski, Vitter, Crapo, Schumer, and Rubio to retire. The first four would make previously uncompetitive races competitive, while the rest would keep the race at essentially the same level of competitiveness.

Long Version:
--------------
A * indicates that I expect the senator to actually retire.

If any of the following run again, they'd be safe or very close to it, but these races would become more competitive in the event of a retirement:
McCain (R-AZ) *
Grassley (R-IA) *
Paul (R-KY) *
Isakson (R-GA)
Boozman (R-AR)
Wyden (D-OR) *
Blumenthal (D-CT)

These Senators' retirements would have essentially no effect on the competitiveness of their races (# indicates competitive race):
Boxer (D-CA) *
Mikulski (D-MD) *
Murray (D-WA) #
Bennet (D-CO) #
Hoeven (R-ND)
Thune (R-SD)
Vitter (R-LA) *
Moran (R-KS)
Lee (R-UT)
Crapo (R-ID) *
Lankford (R-OK) (Safe R race in Nov. 2014)
Scott (R-SC) (Safe R race in Nov. 2014)
Schatz (D-HI) (Safe D race in Nov. 2014)
Shelby (R-AL)
Coats (R-IN)
Burr (R-NC) #
Leahy (D-VT)
Schumer (D-NY) *
Murkowski (R-AK)
Toomey (R-PA) #
Rubio (R-FL) #*
Blunt (R-MO) #

In these already competitive races, a retirement would help the democrats:
Kirk (R-IL)
Reid (D-NV)
Ayotte (R-NH)
Portman (R-OH)

In this already competitive race, a retirement would help the republicans:
Johnson (R-WI)

[NewYorkExpress]

McCain has all but said he's retiring

Rubio/Paul/Ayotte probably will vacate their seats to run for President

Boxer probably will retire (thus beginning a Generational shift in California's politics)

Boozman and Kirk may retire for health reasons, but probably won't.

Mikulski will likely retire.

Reid/Grassley/Johnson, should retire but won't.

[Vega]

McCain has all but said he's retiring

Rubio/Paul probably will vacate their seats to run for President

Boxer probably will retire (thus beginning a Generational shift in California's politics)

Boozman and Kirk may retire for health reasons, but probably won't.

Mikulski will likely retire.

Reid/Grassley/Johnson, should retire but won't.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Boxer probably will retire (thus beginning a Generational shift in California's politics)

I think Boxer has one more term left in her. I always saw Feinstein as one that would stay in office until the day she dies as well, so I personally think they will both run for reelection in 2016 and 2018 one last time.

[Del Tachi]

McCain has all but said he's retiring

Agreed.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

All 3 of them run for President?  That's highly unlikely.  I think that Paul will run for President, but Rubio and Ayotte probably won't at this point. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I see this as unlikely.  Feinstein will probably retire in 2018, so I think that we see another term-or-two out of Boxer just so she can enjoy being the senior senator for a couple years. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Boozman's health concerns are not enough to cause a retirement, and Kirk has already said he's seeking reelection.  The retirement of these two members would actually help out the Democrats in both states, so I'm sure that the the national committee will keep Kirk and Boozman in the running. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Doubt it.  Chairmen of the appropriations committee don't let go easily.  She's got one more term in her, but I do think that Cardin retires in 2018. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"Should retire"?  What's that even mean?