1976 without Watergate

[President Johnson]

The 1976 election would likely have been very different without Watergate. Richard Nixon remains president, but is term limited. Gerald Ford would still be vice president (Spiro Agnew resigned as a result of another scandal, which had nothing to do with Watergate).

I don't think Reagan would be that strong as he was in real life. The conservative wing gained ground as a result of Nixon's resignation (Nixon was a moderate in domestic policy). Without Watergate, Jimmy Carter would likely never have been the Democratic nominee. Perhaps the running mate of Scoop Jackson or Frank Church.

Any scenorios for this election?

[Indy Texas]

Connally-Buckley would be the douchebag-iest GOP ticket possible.

[MadmanMotley]

Sen. Howard Baker (R-TN)/Gov. Daniel Evans (R-WA) 378EV
Sen. Ed Muskie (D-ME)/Sen. Dale Bumpers (D-AR) 160EV

[Mr. Smith]

Perhaps it would look like

Ted Kennedy MA/ Scoop Jackson WA

Nelson Rockefeller NY/ John Connally TX

I suspect in such a case Kennedy would narrowly lose,but manage to break the Nixon "Moral Majority" that put the Left Coast in GOP hands for 20 years.

[Fuzzy Bear]

People seem to have forgotten that it was not Watergate that fueled Carter's candidacy; it was the Democrats' desire to regain lost ground in the Southern States, where their national ticket lost badly in every election from 1964 on, but where the vast majority of elected officials were still Democrats.  1974 saw Democrats regain some lost ground in the South.  Their main concern was Gov. George Wallace running, losing, and then failing to endorse the Democratic ticket in the fall.

Carter gained support because he was seen as a guy who could beat Wallace in the South in the Democratic Primaries, and a guy whom Southern Democrats would endorse and support in the fall campaign.  He would have happened Watergate or no Watergate; indeed, if there had been no Watergate, a guy like Carter taking on Wallace would have been even more essential in bringing Southerners back into the fold.

Carter's problem as President was that he was a failure in developing and maintaining relationships with members of Congress, including conservative-to-moderate Southern Democrats who had incentive in supporting him.  Had he done so, he would have carried most of the South in 1980; the only Southern states that were really out of reach for Carter were FL, VA, and TX.  But Carter was a creature of the need to deflate George Wallace while not inviting a bolt.  Had George Wallace died in his assassination attempt, there would not have been a Democrat filling his void, and there would not have been the need for a Carter to slay the Wallace dragon.

[Jerseyrules]

People seem to have forgotten that it was not Watergate that fueled Carter's candidacy; it was the Democrats' desire to regain lost ground in the Southern States, where their national ticket lost badly in every election from 1964 on, but where the vast majority of elected officials were still Democrats.  1974 saw Democrats regain some lost ground in the South.  Their main concern was Gov. George Wallace running, losing, and then failing to endorse the Democratic ticket in the fall.

Carter gained support because he was seen as a guy who could beat Wallace in the South in the Democratic Primaries, and a guy whom Southern Democrats would endorse and support in the fall campaign.  He would have happened Watergate or no Watergate; indeed, if there had been no Watergate, a guy like Carter taking on Wallace would have been even more essential in bringing Southerners back into the fold.

Carter's problem as President was that he was a failure in developing and maintaining relationships with members of Congress, including conservative-to-moderate Southern Democrats who had incentive in supporting him.  Had he done so, he would have carried most of the South in 1980; the only Southern states that were really out of reach for Carter were FL, VA, and TX.  But Carter was a creature of the need to deflate George Wallace while not inviting a bolt.  Had George Wallace died in his assassination attempt, there would not have been a Democrat filling his void, and there would not have been the need for a Carter to slay the Wallace dragon.

Wallace remains an incredibly interesting public figure in spite of his early views on race - the most interesting thing to me is his repudiation of his earlier views on race following the 72 assassination attempt.  If Wallace were to gain the Democratic nomination, do you think he could have repaired relations with the African American community?  Would he have hurt the Democratic Party with regards to African American support?

[President Johnson]

I strongly believe there would be a republican victory without Watergate. A comfortable victory. The Democrats were still struggling from 1968. In real life, even with Watergate, they didn't win big. It was very close and I am confidant, that Ford would have won with Reagan as his running mate.

[Bigby]

Connally-Buckley would be the douchebag-iest GOP ticket possible.

Would Connally even have a chance in the primaries? For one, he only became a Republican three years prior. Another issue is that the conservative wing of the GOP had not quite become dominant yet.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Some of these maps seem too optimistic for Republicans. Remember, there was a HUGE recession from 1973 - 1975, and unemployment was still in the high 7% are going into the election, after peaking at 9% in 1975, and inflation was really bad as well.


I agree that because of the shifting political landscape the GOP had the demographic edge in the 1970s and 1980s (especially without Watergate), but I don't see another blowout with Nixon owning the economy. Sure, a narrow win, but not such huge landslides.