GA-SurveyUSA: Perdue (R) opens up lead
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Author Topic: GA-SurveyUSA: Perdue (R) opens up lead  (Read 2137 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 19, 2014, 05:27:54 AM »

50% David Perdue (R)
41% Michelle Nunn (D)
  3% Amanda Swafford (L)
  6% Undecided

...

In an election today for US Senator, to fill an open seat vacated by Saxby Chambliss, Republican David Perdue defeats Democrat Michelle Nunn 50% to 41%. (Michelle is Sam Nunn's daughter.) Libertarian Amanda Swafford gets 3% today. 6% are undecided. Perdue's lead comes entirely from men, where he leads by 19 points. Atlanta votes Democratic. Northwest GA votes 2:1 Republican. South and East GA votes 5:4 Republican. The contest has national ramifications; Republicans need to hold the seat to have a chance to capture control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress.

In an election today for Governor, incumbent Republican Nathan Deal defeats Democratic challenger Jason Carter 48% to 39%. (Jason is the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter.) Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 4% today. 8% are undecided. Deal holds 83% of the Republican base. Carter holds 82% of the Democratic base. Independents break sharply Republican. Moderates provide some but not presently enough support for Carter to catch Deal. Libertarian Hunt takes more votes from the Republican Deal than he does from the Democrat Carter.

In an election today for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Casey Cagle defeats Democratic challenger Connie Stokes, 52% to 36%. Cagle holds 90% of the Republican base.

In an election today for Secretary of State, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp defeats Democratic challenger Doreen Carter 53% to 36%. Carter trails by 9 points among women.

In an election today for Attorney General, incumbent Republican Sam Olens defeats Democratic challenger Greg Hecht, 49% to 36%. Hecht has a 5-point advantage among lower-income voters, but he is overpowered by Olens among middle-income and upper-income voters.

In an election today for State School Superintendent, Republican Richard Woods defeats Democrat Valarie Wilson 51% to 39%. Among voters who support the "Common Core" school standards, the Democrat Wilson leads 2:1. Among those who oppose Common Core, the Republican Woods leads 6:1.

...

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,100 state of Georgia adults 08/14/14 through 08/17/14.

Of the adults, 953 were registered to vote.

Of those registered to vote, 560 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone, or other portable device.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c649d925-5e23-4406-a545-30cf95234a33
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2014, 05:28:22 AM »

Well, crap ...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2014, 06:52:29 AM »

BUT DO THEY KNOW MICHELLE'S LAST NAME?!?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2014, 08:50:36 AM »

BUT DO THEY KNOW MICHELLE'S LAST NAME?!?

We were hoping that this would be better. Mary Landrieu or Nunn may be our 51st seat after AK and NC.

Miller endorsement does is give her more moderate credentials in case it is a very close race, even in runoff.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2014, 09:33:32 AM »

Well, that sucks.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2014, 11:25:47 AM »

Excellent News!
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2014, 11:28:48 AM »

Could this explain why?
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backtored
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2014, 01:59:28 PM »

BUT DO THEY KNOW MICHELLE'S LAST NAME?!?

We were hoping that this would be better. Mary Landrieu or Nunn may be our 51st seat after AK and NC.

Miller endorsement does is give her more moderate credentials in case it is a very close race, even in runoff.

I think you're going to have trouble getting to 50 or even 49 seats.
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SWE
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2014, 02:08:16 PM »

BUT DO THEY KNOW MICHELLE'S LAST NAME?!?

We were hoping that this would be better. Mary Landrieu or Nunn may be our 51st seat after AK and NC.

Miller endorsement does is give her more moderate credentials in case it is a very close race, even in runoff.
Do you have anything to actually contribute to these discussions?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2014, 04:11:05 PM »

BUT DO THEY KNOW MICHELLE'S LAST NAME?!?

We were hoping that this would be better. Mary Landrieu or Nunn may be our 51st seat after AK and NC.

Miller endorsement does is give her more moderate credentials in case it is a very close race, even in runoff.
Do you have anything to actually contribute to these discussions?

ALG and Nunn and Pryor are still underdogs in thr race. And all we need on election day is a 50-49 senate. And Landrieu and any of the others will seal the senate for us.

We must not really soley on one race in La to pull us through. We have Nunn, as well.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2014, 04:12:25 PM »

^ what
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2014, 05:29:47 PM »

Michelle Nunn is looking more and more like Terri Land.
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Landon1993
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2014, 06:47:14 PM »

Michelle Nunn is looking more and more like Terri Land.

Exactly. If you read her campaign website, I think that explains it all. Its hard to believe she can motivate her base by talking about giving tax cuts to small businesses.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2014, 10:17:39 PM »

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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2014, 03:18:57 AM »

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Survey USA on 2014-08-17

Summary: D: 41%, R: 50%, I: 3%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2014, 10:38:51 AM »

The main hope for Nunn is that Perdue does an Akin/ Mourdoch, saying something stupid and ignorant that can cost him the election.
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Never
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« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2014, 02:11:06 PM »

The main hope for Nunn is that Perdue does an Akin/ Mourdoch, saying something stupid and ignorant that can cost him the election.

That's probably the only way the dynamics of this race would change. Nunn would have a much easier race if her opponent were Gingrey or Broun, so it's fortunate that neither was the Republican nominee for this race.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2014, 02:13:42 PM »

I don't think Perdue is likely to make an Akin-style gaffe. If he were to gaffe, it'd probably be something that could be considered "elitist" or "out of touch." He's made a few of these already, so I'm not sure how much it would really change the dynamics of this race either way.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2014, 02:14:02 PM »

His comments about supporting the shutdown in a debate, plus his views of people who didn't go to college will do him no favors when they are actually put in campaign ads. The negative ads haven't even started yet, because Nunn hasn't been playing any offense.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2014, 05:25:31 PM »

His comments about supporting the shutdown in a debate, plus his views of people who didn't go to college will do him no favors when they are actually put in campaign ads. The negative ads haven't even started yet, because Nunn hasn't been playing any offense.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTREGpKHHKQ
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KCDem
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« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2014, 07:35:07 PM »

This poll oversamples whites and undersamples blacks, probably too generous for Perdue. He may be ahead but this is not a high single digits race. This race will be decided by 2-6 points. I currently see Perdue going to a runoff in the lead. Needless to say, Republican hold...for now.
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