NH-02RPrim- Magellan (R-Garcia): Garcia leading by 23

[free my dawg]

http://www.wmur.com/political-scoop/garcia-up-23-points-in-her-internal-poll/27321068?absolute=true&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=wmur9_politics#!bw0Ysc

Garcia 36
Lambert 13

Still Safe D - Garcia really should have run for Senate. She's too conservative for this district, and Marilinda Garcia is essentially Bill O'Brien's more disciplined surrogate.

[SamInTheSouth]

I would hardly call this Safe D

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/nh/new_hampshire_2nd_district_garcia_vs_kuster-4289.html

[free my dawg]

I would hardly call this Safe D

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/nh/new_hampshire_2nd_district_garcia_vs_kuster-4289.html

And this is coming from the person who says Kelly Ayotte is Safe R.

Not even gonna get into citing UNH polls. Maybe this race is Likely D, but either way it's not competitive.

[SamInTheSouth]

I would hardly call this Safe D

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/nh/new_hampshire_2nd_district_garcia_vs_kuster-4289.html

And this is coming from the person who says Kelly Ayotte is Safe R.

Not even gonna get into citing UNH polls. Maybe this race is Likely D, but either way it's not competitive.

Ayotte isn't up for reelection until 2016.  Trying to predict anything in that race is absurd.

Kuster is an incumbent polling at 39% with 25% either undecided or supporting a third party candidate.  That is not a good position for an incumbent to be in.  Both New Hampshire seats flipped back to the GOP in 2010 and given the way the political winds are blowing this year it can quite easily happen again. 

[free my dawg]

I would hardly call this Safe D

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/nh/new_hampshire_2nd_district_garcia_vs_kuster-4289.html

And this is coming from the person who says Kelly Ayotte is Safe R.

Not even gonna get into citing UNH polls. Maybe this race is Likely D, but either way it's not competitive.

Ayotte isn't up for reelection until 2016.  Trying to predict anything in that race is absurd.

Kuster is an incumbent polling at 39% with 25% either undecided or supporting a third party candidate.  That is not a good position for an incumbent to be in.  Both New Hampshire seats flipped back to the GOP in 2010 and given the way the political winds are blowing this year it can quite easily happen again. 

And it's completely unrealistic for her to lose 11% support over the span of six weeks.