Al Smith probably would've taken New York,but lost more Southern States
Would Coolidge have gone forward with Hoover's Southern Strategy though? If I remember correctly, Hoover made a concerted effort to bring southern states into the fold, particularly capitalizing on Smith's Catholic faith. Would Coolidge have run such a campaign?
Would Coolidge even campaign, lol?
But seriously, I find it interesting that some people think that Coolidge would do better in the South and worse in New York than Hoover did. Coolidge
had a pretty good reputation among ethnic Democrats and throughout his career he defended them against protestant elitists within his own party. Based on his life story, he would not only not go with the Southern Strategy and the anti-Catholic campaign that Hoover ultimately went with, it would've turned his stomach.
And I say this as somebody who is not a fan of the man.
But of course, Al Smith was an Irish Catholic Democrat from New York so Coolidge's immense popularity among ethnic Democrats would be cancelled out. Although, since the Great Humanitarian wasn't running Smith might be able to do better with Polish Americans and maybe some other Eastern European groups in a timeline where he is running against Coolidge (the Polish held Hoover in high esteem due to his humanitarian efforts in Poland post WWI). However, Coolidge's popularity among the ethnics would probably be such to dampen the effect of a Smith candidacy (there were a lot more Germans and Irishmen in the US than there were Poles and Slovaks). There is after all, a world of difference between 70% and 80%.
I should have a map up later.
