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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Should've left the Pangolins alone, Apocrypha)
  1928: Coolidge runs
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Author Topic: 1928: Coolidge runs  (Read 2802 times)
TaylorFillmore
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« on: August 04, 2014, 05:46:22 pm »

Coolidge decides he has the energy for another four years and runs in 1928. He is very popular and although Hoover runs against him easily wins the nomination. Al Smith is still the Democrat Nominee . Does Coolidge improve on Hoover's actual election results or is there some factor that allows Smith to gain some ground.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2014, 11:24:14 am »

Coolidge likely wins by a simiular margin than Hoover did. 1932 would then be an open race with the election of FDR over Hoover. But Coolidge would change his running mate in 1928.
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TaylorFillmore
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2014, 01:22:57 pm »

Agreed, 1928 was a year that no Democrat could have even made close. Coolidge couldn't stand Dawes and might replace him with Frank Lowden, somebody that in RT challenged Hoover for the nomination.
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2014, 10:55:52 am »


 If Coolidge ran again in 1928, he would as an earlier poster said have dropped Charles Dawes from the ticket and, in a two man race with Al Smith and at the zenith of his popularity, likely would have exceeded 400 electoral votes and won somewhere around 58 to 59 percent of the popular vote.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2014, 12:11:45 pm »

Al Smith probably would've taken New York,but lost more Southern States
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2014, 09:33:05 pm »

Al Smith probably would've taken New York,but lost more Southern States
Coolidge might have had a decent shot at picking up Alabama and Georgia if he ran for another term in  1928.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2014, 09:59:04 pm »

Al Smith probably would've taken New York,but lost more Southern States
Coolidge might have had a decent shot at picking up Alabama and Georgia if he ran for another term in  1928.

Would Coolidge have gone forward with Hoover's Southern Strategy though?  If I remember correctly, Hoover made a concerted effort to bring southern states into the fold, particularly capitalizing on Smith's Catholic faith.  Would Coolidge have run such a campaign?
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TaylorFillmore
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« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2014, 05:23:32 pm »

Probably not . Let's say that the lack of a sufficient Southern strategy by Coolidge gives Smith Texas, Viriginia, Tennesse and North Carolina.

The Result is now 398 for Coolidge and 133 for Smith. A small dent in the margin of victory but no way Smith makes this one close.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2014, 06:47:53 pm »

Al Smith probably would've taken New York,but lost more Southern States
Coolidge might have had a decent shot at picking up Alabama and Georgia if he ran for another term in  1928.

Would Coolidge have gone forward with Hoover's Southern Strategy though?  If I remember correctly, Hoover made a concerted effort to bring southern states into the fold, particularly capitalizing on Smith's Catholic faith.  Would Coolidge have run such a campaign?

Would Coolidge even campaign, lol?

But seriously, I find it interesting that some people think that Coolidge would do better in the South and worse in New York than Hoover did.  Coolidge had a pretty good reputation among ethnic Democrats and throughout his career he defended them against protestant elitists within his own party.  Based on his life story, he would not only not go with the Southern Strategy and the anti-Catholic campaign that Hoover ultimately went with, it would've turned his stomach.
And I say this as somebody who is not a fan of the man.

But of course, Al Smith was an Irish Catholic Democrat from New York so Coolidge's immense popularity among ethnic Democrats would be cancelled out.  Although, since the Great Humanitarian wasn't running Smith might be able to do better with Polish Americans and maybe some other Eastern European groups in a timeline where he is running against Coolidge (the Polish held Hoover in high esteem due to his humanitarian efforts in Poland post WWI).  However, Coolidge's popularity among the ethnics would probably be such to dampen the effect of a Smith candidacy (there were a lot more Germans and Irishmen in the US than there were Poles and Slovaks).  There is after all, a world of difference between 70% and 80%.

I should have a map up later.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2014, 07:34:39 pm »

Coolidge replaces VP Dawes with Charles Curtis.



Coolidge/Curtis:  423
Smith/Robinson:  108

Only changes from RL are that Smith wins Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia, and loses Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
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shua
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2014, 11:45:21 pm »



Pres. Calvin Coolidge (MA) / Sen. Charles Curtis (KS)  56%  434
Gov. Al Smith (NY) / Sen. Joseph Robinson (AR) 43% 97


Coolidge would perform better than Hoover in New England, retaining some of the Irish and other 'ethnic' community vote there even though most still do go for Smith. He does not quite as well in the Midwest due to the Central/Eastern European connection that Mecha mentioned, bleeding to Smith from progressives who would go for Hoover but find Coolidge too conservative, and Hoover originally hailing from that region. Coolidge has slightly less support in the South than Hoover, but basically Coolidge can hate the KKK all day long and they are still going to go out and support him over a Catholic except in the most extremely solidly Democratic parts of the Deep South.
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mianfei
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« Reply #11 on: January 22, 2017, 03:31:31 am »

Pres. Calvin Coolidge (MA) / Sen. Charles Curtis (KS)  56%  434
Gov. Al Smith (NY) / Sen. Joseph Robinson (AR) 43% 97


Coolidge would perform better than Hoover in New England, retaining some of the Irish and other 'ethnic' community vote there even though most still do go for Smith. He does not quite as well in the Midwest due to the Central/Eastern European connection that Mecha mentioned, bleeding to Smith from progressives who would go for Hoover but find Coolidge too conservative, and Hoover originally hailing from that region. Coolidge has slightly less support in the South than Hoover, but basically Coolidge can hate the KKK all day long and they are still going to go out and support him over a Catholic except in the most extremely solidly Democratic parts of the Deep South.
Very sensible map. Coolidge would have had more trouble taking the LaFollette vote – and before he died in 1925 LaFollette did endorse Smith one should recall – than Hoover did, but it’s hard to see it costing him anything in the anti-Catholic Pacific Northwest or Upper South.

He would certainly have kept Massachusetts and Rhode Island in the Republican fold for another election, and Coolidge’s popularity in the Northeast would have countered Smith’s very powerful personal vote enough to hold New York.

One point one might look at seeing this map is to note that as it was Coolidge died in 1933, and if he had run and been elected again Coolidge might either have died in office or seen his health become sufficiently bad to resign because of it (four decades before Nixon became the only President to resign). What would Curtis have been like as President, and how would an America run by Charles Curtis have dealt with the Depression?
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #12 on: January 22, 2017, 05:15:28 am »

Either a big landslide(Hoover 1928 or bigger), or a comination of 1916, 1924, and 1928.


253: Alfred Smith/Charles W. Bryan - 37.0%
244: Calvin Coolidge/Ira Clifton Copley - 36.1%
34: Miles Poindexter/Robert La Follette, Jr. - 24.1%
Others - 2.8%
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Cаквояжник
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« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2017, 07:48:19 pm »

Coolidge wins in a landslide.  Smith gains in the South but he doesn't win MA and RI.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2017, 08:14:29 pm »
« Edited: January 22, 2017, 08:19:49 pm by L.D. Smith »

Al Smith probably would've taken New York,but lost more Southern States

Wow, this post is shameful.

Okay. Smith still takes New York but he keeps The South. Also he does better out west if he buries the hatchet with McAdoo.




Coolidge/Curtis
Smith/McAdoo
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shua
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2017, 01:19:34 pm »

Either a big landslide(Hoover 1928 or bigger), or a comination of 1916, 1924, and 1928.


253: Alfred Smith/Charles W. Bryan - 37.0%
244: Calvin Coolidge/Ira Clifton Copley - 36.1%
34: Miles Poindexter/Robert La Follette, Jr. - 24.1%
Others - 2.8%

what is going on in this map Huh
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #16 on: February 20, 2017, 01:59:44 pm »
« Edited: March 20, 2017, 06:48:23 pm by brucejoel99 »



President Coolidge/Charles Curtis (R): 462 EV, 58.6%
Al Smith/Joseph T. Robinson (D): 69 EV, 40.4%
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President Johnson
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« Reply #17 on: February 20, 2017, 05:02:45 pm »

Either a big landslide(Hoover 1928 or bigger), or a comination of 1916, 1924, and 1928.


253: Alfred Smith/Charles W. Bryan - 37.0%
244: Calvin Coolidge/Ira Clifton Copley - 36.1%
34: Miles Poindexter/Robert La Follette, Jr. - 24.1%
Others - 2.8%

what is going on in this map Huh

Yeah, no way that would have happend.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #18 on: February 20, 2017, 05:07:11 pm »

Either a big landslide(Hoover 1928 or bigger), or a comination of 1916, 1924, and 1928.


253: Alfred Smith/Charles W. Bryan - 37.0%
244: Calvin Coolidge/Ira Clifton Copley - 36.1%
34: Miles Poindexter/Robert La Follette, Jr. - 24.1%
Others - 2.8%

what is going on in this map Huh

It is a reversion to the 1896/1908/1916 trends.
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Cаквояжник
CELTICEMPIRE
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« Reply #19 on: February 23, 2017, 02:28:07 pm »

This is what it might have looked like:



The Northeast swings Democrat but not nearly enough to pick up any states.  Meanwhile, its business as usual in the South.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #20 on: March 20, 2017, 10:24:47 am »

Big win for Coolidge again, though Smith does a little better in the south, but loses MA and RI. The economy is still good, no foreign crisis and the GOP is the nation’s majority party.

LOL at Kingpoleon’s map.



✓ President Calvin Coolidge (R-MA)/Senator Charles Curtis (R-KS): 423 EVs.; 55.9%
Governor Al Smith (D-NY)/Representative William Bankhead (D-AL): 108 EVs.; 42.2%
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #21 on: March 20, 2017, 04:06:50 pm »

Big win for Coolidge again, though Smith does a little better in the south, but loses MA and RI. The economy is still good, no foreign crisis and the GOP is the nation’s majority party.

LOL at Kingpoleon’s map.



✓ President Calvin Coolidge (R-MA)/Senator Charles Curtis (R-KS): 423 EVs.; 55.9%
Governor Al Smith (D-NY)/Representative William Bankhead (D-AL): 108 EVs.; 42.2%

Purple heart u 2
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