KY: Bluegrass Poll: McConnell leading by 2
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Author Topic: KY: Bluegrass Poll: McConnell leading by 2  (Read 3416 times)
Miles
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« on: July 28, 2014, 05:09:27 PM »

Article.

McConnell (R)- 47%
Grimes (D)- 45%
Not sure- 8%

McConnell (R)- 41%
Grimes (D)- 39%
Patterson (L)- 7%
Not sure- 13%

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2014, 05:12:58 PM »

Poor SurveyUSA.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2014, 05:30:53 PM »

What a nice poll.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2014, 05:37:15 PM »

If I were McConnell, I wouldnt want to be tied heading into election night.

Most of thr polls we've seen have McConnell up by 4 pts. Where he should be at, but not out of play for us.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2014, 05:37:24 PM »

And with only two posts in we see both side's hackishness being represented.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2014, 05:43:37 PM »


You're really celebrating that McConnell is up a measly 2 points in Kentucky?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2014, 05:45:35 PM »

Libertarian pulling equally from both sides. Interesting. ..
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2014, 05:53:49 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2014, 06:09:27 PM by IceSpear »

More confirmation that McConnell has the same odds of being re-elected as Mark Warner, and better odds than Franken.

Also, I just looked at the crosstabs. Why is there only a 1 point Democratic advantage in partisan identification? Isn't Kentucky supposed to have a double digit advantage, even though a large portion of them are Dixiecrats?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2014, 06:40:38 PM »

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2014, 06:48:44 PM »

If it is tied on Election Day, it will be Grimes race. I remember the Mongiardo race which Bunning had the race too close to call.

If I was Mitch, I would count on a heated race.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2014, 06:54:28 PM »

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2014, 07:14:35 PM »

This is what Phil's two cents are worth. Lol.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131443.0

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2014, 07:14:54 PM »

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?

Didn't the Dems lead in that almost totally meaningless generic ballot for most of 2010 and 1994?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2014, 07:17:26 PM »


LOL MUST ALWAYS BE WRONG THEN HAHA!

Aside from a few infamous predictions (and what you referenced wasn't even a prediction), I'm actually pretty accurate with my predictions. The vast moronic conspiracy against me seeks to drown out the truth though and sadly, it has been pretty successful around these parts. This is what you resort to when you can't refute my actual points.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2014, 07:19:57 PM »

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?

Didn't the Dems lead in that almost totally meaningless generic ballot for most of 2010 and 1994?

Around this point in 2010, Republicans lead by 3-6 points.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2014, 07:23:55 PM »

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?

Didn't the Dems lead in that almost totally meaningless generic ballot for most of 2010 and 1994?

Around this point in 2010, Republicans lead by 3-6 points.

And '94?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2014, 07:48:25 PM »

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?

Didn't the Dems lead in that almost totally meaningless generic ballot for most of 2010 and 1994?

Around this point in 2010, Republicans lead by 3-6 points.

And '94?

Beats me, but it was relatively accurate in 2008, 2010, and 2012. That seems more relevant than an election from 2 decades ago from before poll aggregation became a thing.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2014, 08:14:31 PM »

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

It does?

Didn't the Dems lead in that almost totally meaningless generic ballot for most of 2010 and 1994?

Around this point in 2010, Republicans lead by 3-6 points.

And '94?

Beats me, but it was relatively accurate in 2008, 2010, and 2012. That seems more relevant than an election from 2 decades ago from before poll aggregation became a thing.

And still ultimately meaningless. Guarantee Presidential approval is more indicative of the national mood than generic ballot.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2014, 08:18:54 PM »

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

I'm not sure how you can believe it won't be close. Look at the numbers. I could see Grimes losing by 6 if it gets out of hand for her, but honestly this has been neck and neck and will continue to be so. The only reason Rand Paul got a relatively health double digit margin against a statewide officer is because Conway fumbled the ball so poorly.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #19 on: July 28, 2014, 08:51:32 PM »

Team Mitch has weathered tough elections basically every time since he first won (except for like one year). It's a midterm year during an unpopular President's sixth year. The GOP has a chance at winning the Senate. The national climate favors the incumbent's party. It's Kentucky.

Mitch isn't going to lose. It won't even be particularly close in the end.

I'm not sure how you can believe it won't be close. Look at the numbers. I could see Grimes losing by 6 if it gets out of hand for her, but honestly this has been neck and neck and will continue to be so. The only reason Rand Paul got a relatively health double digit margin against a statewide officer is because Conway fumbled the ball so poorly.

All of the reason I stated above are reason enough to believe it won't be all that close. If Grimes can't end the Summer in the lead then I think everyone should really doubt it will close.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: July 28, 2014, 09:19:44 PM »


LOL MUST ALWAYS BE WRONG THEN HAHA!

Aside from a few infamous predictions (and what you referenced wasn't even a prediction), I'm actually pretty accurate with my predictions. The vast moronic conspiracy against me seeks to drown out the truth though and sadly, it has been pretty successful around these parts. This is what you resort to when you can't refute my actual points.

You didn't make a valid point to refute. McConnell leading by only 2 in an R+13 state that has a lot of Democratic office holders statewide does not suggest he will win big, let alone win at all.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2014, 12:12:47 AM »


LOL MUST ALWAYS BE WRONG THEN HAHA!

Aside from a few infamous predictions (and what you referenced wasn't even a prediction), I'm actually pretty accurate with my predictions. The vast moronic conspiracy against me seeks to drown out the truth though and sadly, it has been pretty successful around these parts. This is what you resort to when you can't refute my actual points.

You didn't make a valid point to refute. McConnell leading by only 2 in an R+13 state that has a lot of Democratic office holders statewide does not suggest he will win big, let alone win at all.

Right, the factors I mentioned just aren't proof of how a race can ultimately break quite clearly one way...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: July 29, 2014, 01:21:23 AM »

This race is still very much a toss-up.

ALG leads by 17 among Indies, which is a good sign.
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windjammer
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« Reply #23 on: July 29, 2014, 01:41:53 AM »

Phil,
The problem is that Mcconnell is as unpopular as Obama. Don't forget that.

I think he will win, but certainly not by a big margin like you pretend.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #24 on: July 29, 2014, 03:27:59 AM »


LOL MUST ALWAYS BE WRONG THEN HAHA!

Aside from a few infamous predictions (and what you referenced wasn't even a prediction), I'm actually pretty accurate with my predictions. The vast moronic conspiracy against me seeks to drown out the truth though and sadly, it has been pretty successful around these parts. This is what you resort to when you can't refute my actual points.

Sarkozy will be reelected.
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