MI-Marist: Snyder (R) up 2 among RVs

[dmmidmi]

If Schauer wants a shot at winning, he needs to be ramping up his name recognition soon. He has been spending a lot of time in front of friendly audiences (and hopefully in front of donors). Schauer seems like a genuinely personable, likeable, and intelligent guy, and he has handled himself in the press fairly well so far.

And he has actually taken policy positions, and described exactly what he would do as Governor. He definitely isn't lacking in campaigning skills, but he needs to increase his visibility.

[dmmidmi]

This is a tossup at best all the junk polls gave us an impression that Snyder was in a good position and that's the effect they have. I think a lot of people will be surprised when election results trickle in you don't pass RTW in MI and win in a landslide come November.

This, really. If you apply a corrective house effect, in accordance with what Nate Silver found a couple of years back, what you see is a pretty tight race.

[dmmidmi]

Last Michigan governor to lose reelection was Blanchard in 1990.

You are correct. You should check out his margin of victory in 1986.

The assumption not long before election night in 1990 was, "So, how much will Blanchard win by?" More than a few people were shocked when Engler won.