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October 29, 2020, 08:20:27 AM

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  MI-Marist: Snyder (R) up 2 among RVs
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Author Topic: MI-Marist: Snyder (R) up 2 among RVs  (Read 1527 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: July 15, 2014, 05:46:25 AM »
« edited: July 30, 2014, 03:24:10 PM by Dave Leip »

Poll conducted among RVs

Snyder (R) 46%
Schauer (D) 44%
Others 1%

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2014, 05:50:21 AM »

This could get interesting after all.

Both Snyder and Schauer have roughly the same favorable ratings (Schauer's more unknown though).
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2014, 07:04:59 AM »

If Schauer wants a shot at winning, he needs to be ramping up his name recognition soon. He has been spending a lot of time in front of friendly audiences (and hopefully in front of donors). Schauer seems like a genuinely personable, likeable, and intelligent guy, and he has handled himself in the press fairly well so far.

And he has actually taken policy positions, and described exactly what he would do as Governor. He definitely isn't lacking in campaigning skills, but he needs to increase his visibility.
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henster
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2014, 11:23:46 AM »

This is a tossup at best all the junk polls gave us an impression that Snyder was in a good position and that's the effect they have. I think a lot of people will be surprised when election results trickle in you don't pass RTW in MI and win in a landslide come November.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2014, 12:06:38 PM »

This is a tossup at best all the junk polls gave us an impression that Snyder was in a good position and that's the effect they have. I think a lot of people will be surprised when election results trickle in you don't pass RTW in MI and win in a landslide come November.

This, really. If you apply a corrective house effect, in accordance with what Nate Silver found a couple of years back, what you see is a pretty tight race.
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TX Conservative Dem
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2014, 12:56:05 PM »

Last Michigan governor to lose reelection was Blanchard in 1990.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2014, 01:24:17 PM »

Last Michigan governor to lose reelection was Blanchard in 1990.


You are correct. You should check out his margin of victory in 1986.

The assumption not long before election night in 1990 was, "So, how much will Blanchard win by?" More than a few people were shocked when Engler won.
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2014, 01:29:05 PM »

If Schauer wants a shot at winning, he needs to be ramping up his name recognition soon. He has been spending a lot of time in front of friendly audiences (and hopefully in front of donors). Schauer seems like a genuinely personable, likeable, and intelligent guy, and he has handled himself in the press fairly well so far.

And he has actually taken policy positions, and described exactly what he would do as Governor. He definitely isn't lacking in campaigning skills, but he needs to increase his visibility.

The cheapest ticket to one of his campaign rallies is $100. If you're seeing him in person, you are a donor.
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Lincoln Councillor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2014, 02:40:16 PM »

Snyder's really been declining lately - in a late may EPIC-MRA poll he was ahead by 9, but now the last three polls (of which two come from (fairly) reliable companies (this one and PPP)) show him with only an average lead of 2. Schauer still can't point to a poll showing him in the lead (unless he looks back to may of 2013), but at this point I'm deferring to michigan's blue leanings and changing the rating:

MI-Gov: Moves from Leaning R to Toss-Up
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2014, 01:46:28 PM »

The way to determine a decline or improvement is to look at two polls from the same pollster. Pollsters don't generally change their polling techniques from one poll to the next. 
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2014, 03:00:40 PM »

Marist is a good pollster, this is probably close but Snyder is still a strong candidate. Even with tightening polls, Schauer hasn't led since February.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2014, 04:05:48 PM »

Marist is a good pollster, this is probably close but Snyder is still a strong candidate. Even with tightening polls, Schauer hasn't led since February.

The DTW situation is the undoing of the GOP. Blks will come out in lock step against Synder. Thats why it is this close.

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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2014, 03:25:50 PM »

New Poll: Michigan Governor by Marist College on 2014-07-10

Summary: D: 44%, R: 46%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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