Past elections with current demographic makeups % electoral counts

[JRP1994]

Using this app: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/04/30/us/politics/presidential-math-demographics-and-immigration-reform.html?_r=0
     • Using 2016
     • Assuming no immigration reform
     • Demographic percentages from Roper Center data

2012 (control)

Obama/Biden: 51.4%, 332 EVs
Romney/Ryan: 46.7%, 206 EVs


2008

Obama/Biden: 52.7%, 347 EVs
McCain/Palin: 45.5%, 191 EVs


2004

Kerry/Edwards: 279, 48.5%
Bush/Cheney: 259, 49.7%


2000 (assigning Nader voters 2:1 to Gore)

Gore/Lieberman: 347, 52.0%
Bush/Cheney: 191, 46.2%


1996 (assigning Perot voters 50:50 to Clinton/Dole)

Clinton/Gore: 382, 55.8%
Dole/Kemp: 156, 42.4%

1992 (assigning Perot voters 50:50 to Clinton/Bush)

Clinton/Gore: 382, 55.5%
Bush/Quayle: 156, 42.7%

[JRP1994]

1988

Dukakis/Bentsen: 290, 49.4%
Bush/Quayle: 248, 48.8%


1984

Reagan/Bush: 359, 53.1%
Mondale/Ferraro: 179, 45.1%

1980 (assigning Anderson votes 50:50 to Reagan/Carter

Reagan/Bush: 286, 50.4%
Carter/Mondale: 252, 47.8%


1976

Carter/Mondale: 372, 55.7%
Ford/Dole: 166, 42.5%

[Bureaucat]

Great work, JRP.

Have you looked at the 1968 election using 2016 demographics?  As it was, Nixon won the popular vote over HHH by about a half million votes and won the electoral college comfortably.  But if the white vote had been 70% of the electorate, and white voters split 3 ways, it's clear that Humphrey would have won the popular vote, but would he have won the electoral college, or would the worst possible scenario happen, where neither Humphrey nor Nixon reached 270 electoral votes and they were forced to barter with George Wallace in order to reach the White House?