SC-PPP (for SCDP): Haley up 3

[Miles]

Report.

Haley (R)- 49%
Shaheen (D)- 46%

[windjammer]

Junk poll?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Surely Haley's attack on Obama will cause this tighten, correct ?

[SWE]

Junk poll?

No, this looks a lot like 2010 actually

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news if we can steal race, since tea party support is lagging due to Graham's amnesty stance.

[NHLiberal]

This looks about right.

[Flake]

Way too favorable for Shaheen

[illegaloperation]

Way too favorable for Shaheen

Not really. South Carolina is a 55-45 state and Shaheen is a good candidate.

It's shame that the state is so inelastic.

[morgieb]

Quasi-internal, so skepticism etc.

[NHLiberal]

Way too favorable for Shaheen

Not really. South Carolina is a 55-45 state and Shaheen is a good candidate.

It's shame that the state is so inelastic.

Shaheen is the senior Senator from New Hampshire. She is not running in South Carolina. You may be thinking of Vincent Sheheen, the next Governor of South Carolina.

[SWE]

Way too favorable for Shaheen

Really? Because last time Sheheen ran for governor, he did better than this.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Way too favorable for Shaheen

Not really. South Carolina is a 55-45 state and Shaheen is a good candidate.

It's shame that the state is so inelastic.

Shaheen is the senior Senator from New Hampshire. She is not running in South Carolina. You may be thinking of Vincent Sheheen, the next Governor of South Carolina.

So you're predicting that he'll win in 2018?  I can't really think of any reason why people who voted for Haley in 2014 would be likely to vote for Sheheen this time.  If anything, I'd argue for the reverse given that Haley has the benefit of a State economy that has improved considerably more than the national economy over the past four years.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Way too favorable for Shaheen

Really? Because last time Sheheen ran for governor, he did better than this.

Haley was seen as an unknown risk and the State economy was much worse in 2010 than it is now.  How Haley will do as governor is now a known quantity and the economy has improved considerably in the last four years.  In four years we've gone from 45th in the nation in our unemployment rate (10.7%, 1.2% higher than the nation) to 18th in the nation (5.3%, 1.0% lower than the national rate).  If we were a more elastic State, Haley would have a chance to crack 60%, as it is the best she can probably hope for is a 10% margin over Sheheen, but I would be shocked if she doesn't improve on her 2010 results.  The utter failure of the Tea Party in any of the GOP statewide primaries to defeat establishment candidates means that moderates who might have been scared off won't be.

[NHLiberal]

Way too favorable for Shaheen

Not really. South Carolina is a 55-45 state and Shaheen is a good candidate.

It's shame that the state is so inelastic.

Shaheen is the senior Senator from New Hampshire. She is not running in South Carolina. You may be thinking of Vincent Sheheen, the next Governor of South Carolina.

So you're predicting that he'll win in 2018?  I can't really think of any reason why people who voted for Haley in 2014 would be likely to vote for Sheheen this time.  If anything, I'd argue for the reverse given that Haley has the benefit of a State economy that has improved considerably more than the national economy over the past four years.

Yes. Sheheen will win in 2018. He will win reelection in 2018.

[Maxwell]

This is a PPP internal, so this is a mixed bag, but I'd prefer Quinnipiac in this situation.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think this is probably favorable to Sheheen, especially when PPP does it for a liberal outlet, they usually have results that are slightly D slanted. I will be surprised if Haley can't get over 51% in the polling.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Way too favorable for Shaheen

Not really. South Carolina is a 55-45 state and Shaheen is a good candidate.

It's shame that the state is so inelastic.

Shaheen is the senior Senator from New Hampshire. She is not running in South Carolina. You may be thinking of Vincent Sheheen, the next Governor of South Carolina.

So you're predicting that he'll win in 2018?  I can't really think of any reason why people who voted for Haley in 2014 would be likely to vote for Sheheen this time.  If anything, I'd argue for the reverse given that Haley has the benefit of a State economy that has improved considerably more than the national economy over the past four years.

Yes. Sheheen will win in 2018. He will win reelection in 2018.

The only way Sheheen could possibly be running for reelection in 2018 would be if he defeats Mulvaney for the 5th district in 2016.

[LeBron]

Way too favorable for Shaheen

Not really. South Carolina is a 55-45 state and Shaheen is a good candidate.

It's shame that the state is so inelastic.

Shaheen is the senior Senator from New Hampshire. She is not running in South Carolina. You may be thinking of Vincent Sheheen, the next Governor of South Carolina.

So you're predicting that he'll win in 2018?  I can't really think of any reason why people who voted for Haley in 2014 would be likely to vote for Sheheen this time.  If anything, I'd argue for the reverse given that Haley has the benefit of a State economy that has improved considerably more than the national economy over the past four years.

Yes. Sheheen will win in 2018. He will win reelection in 2018.

The only way Sheheen could possibly be running for reelection in 2018 would be if he defeats Mulvaney for the 5th district in 2016.

Which is unlikely since he has a career as is in a non-term-limited State Senate. If I were him, I would challenge the weaker Rice in SC-7 considering they both represent Chesterfield (though he would have to run in 2016 to have a chance at winning, so he would probably have to give up his seat to do that) or maybe try for Governor again when the seat is open? Those are probably his best and only options.

As for the poll, if the best the state party can do is barely hold Haley below the 50% mark, then I don't know what to say. The chances of unseating Deal or Haley are fading away, and fast.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The only way Sheheen could possibly be running for reelection in 2018 would be if he defeats Mulvaney for the 5th district in 2016.

Which is unlikely since he has a career as is in a non-term-limited State Senate. If I were him, I would challenge the weaker Rice in SC-7 considering they both represent Chesterfield (though he would have to run in 2016 to have a chance at winning, so he would probably have to give up his seat to do that) or maybe try for Governor again when the seat is open? Those are probably his best and only options.

Sheheen was born, raised, and has lived all his life in Camden, which is in Kershaw County, which is in the 5th.  He'd have to carpetbag to face Rice, so if for some improbable reason Sheheen were to go after a Congressional seat it needs to be Mulvaney's.  Mulvaney isn't all that much stronger than Rice and certainly not enough to face the downside of being called a carpetbagger. I certainly wasn't suggesting such a run as a desirable option for him, just that it was the only option that could even remotely give him a chance to be running for reelection in 2018 for any office.

[Tender Branson]

WYFF News 4 will have a new poll out later today for SC, most likely from SurveyUSA:

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