Haugh's support will of course collapse mightily by Election Day. Normally I'd say that's good news for Tillis, but I'm surprised to see Hagen actually running slightly ahead as Haugh voters' second choice.
The libertarian support is fairly even here, but he does in fact take more from Tilllis. Look at the numbers.
39 Hagan, 34 Tillis, 11 Haugh
42 Hagan, 38 Tilllis
Put in the libertarian, and what he does in this poll is take 3 points from Hagan (42 down to 39), but takes 4 points from Tillis (42 down to 38), with the remaining 4% coming from the undecided column. Essentially, Tillis is winning the libertarian vote 36%-27%, with a heavy 37% undecided.
