SHOCK poll: Eric Cantor (R) in primary trouble !?

[Mr. Illini]

Cheers!

[TJ in Oregon]

Boehner's statement reads like Cantor died:

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I'm surprised Boehner's sad. His Speakership-long saboteur is finally dead.

Exactly. Good riddance.

This would be a good opportunity to ask you, TJ - why do you think so highly of Boehner but so little of Cantor?  As I recall, you even had a "Boehner for Congress" banner in your signature not far too long ago, and I'm sure there's more to that than home state loyalty.

Boehner is a clear example of a Republican who is very conservative (including very socially conservative) but yet constantly willing to work across the aisle with Democrats to sort out all of these crises. He's a man with a nearly impossible job: herding the cats that make up the House Republican caucus to actually pass things that have some chance of passing the senate and getting signed. He's someone hated wrongly by so many in the national press who either fail to recognize almost no one could do better at his difficult job, or want him replaced by someone who will disgrace the Republican Party.

On the other hand, Cantor appears to be constantly trying his best to make Boehner's job harder by opposing all fiscal compromise. There have been for a while rumors of Boehner getting sacked in favor of Cantor for being willing to work with the Obama administration whereas Cantor favors a more scorched earth approach. That whole government shutdown debacle last year made me realize that Cantor is a part of the reason why the House Republican caucus is dysfunctional.

[Miles]

Map of VA-07.

Red = Cantor, Purple = Brat.

[muon2]

Map of VA-07.

Red = Cantor, Purple = Brat.

Great map find, and the scatterplot on the right is significant as it should defuse claims of any significant Dem crossover.

[Tender Branson]

[StateBoiler]

He's not going to carry on as House Majority Leader as a lame duck, I doubt the party would let him anyway, but someone has to pick that up.

He's not?  I would have figured that he'll continue serving as Majority Leader until his term is up.  Otherwise, you have to reshuffle the entire leadership below Boehner, as everyone tries to move up to the next rung on the ladder.  Why have a distracting leadership battle like that right now?  It makes far more sense to hold off on that until November.

Unless Cantor has already made some kind of announcement to suggest that he'll step down as Majority Leader?

Anything he says and does, everyone can mock him for his primary loss and ignore what he says because he's not long for this world. The man's castrated if he attempts to retain his power.

[Never]

Map of VA-07.

Red = Cantor, Purple = Brat.

Cantor did better in Spotsylvania County than I would have expected considering his overall loss. I suppose the result could be attributed to the county being an exurb of Washington, D.C.

[Mr. Morden]

He's not going to carry on as House Majority Leader as a lame duck, I doubt the party would let him anyway, but someone has to pick that up.

He's not?  I would have figured that he'll continue serving as Majority Leader until his term is up.  Otherwise, you have to reshuffle the entire leadership below Boehner, as everyone tries to move up to the next rung on the ladder.  Why have a distracting leadership battle like that right now?  It makes far more sense to hold off on that until November.

Unless Cantor has already made some kind of announcement to suggest that he'll step down as Majority Leader?

Anything he says and does, everyone can mock him for his primary loss and ignore what he says because he's not long for this world. The man's castrated if he attempts to retain his power.

Well, I have yet to see any statement to the effect that he's planning to step down from leadership before his term is up, nor any indication that his colleagues are planning to force him out.  There is just no point in him relinquishing his post right now.  We only have a few months to go until Congress adjourns anyway.  Why create this gigantic leadership battle right now?  He'll stay on until November, when the party will elect new leadership, following the general election.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Not a shock poll after last night.

[Franzl]

Not a shock poll after last night.

clever boy

[StateBoiler]

He's not going to carry on as House Majority Leader as a lame duck, I doubt the party would let him anyway, but someone has to pick that up.

He's not?  I would have figured that he'll continue serving as Majority Leader until his term is up.  Otherwise, you have to reshuffle the entire leadership below Boehner, as everyone tries to move up to the next rung on the ladder.  Why have a distracting leadership battle like that right now?  It makes far more sense to hold off on that until November.

Unless Cantor has already made some kind of announcement to suggest that he'll step down as Majority Leader?

Anything he says and does, everyone can mock him for his primary loss and ignore what he says because he's not long for this world. The man's castrated if he attempts to retain his power.

Well, I have yet to see any statement to the effect that he's planning to step down from leadership before his term is up, nor any indication that his colleagues are planning to force him out.  There is just no point in him relinquishing his post right now.  We only have a few months to go until Congress adjourns anyway.  Why create this gigantic leadership battle right now?  He'll stay on until November, when the party will elect new leadership, following the general election.

It's not gigantic, this is not some commonwealth country's parliamentary party leadership election. The Republican representatives of the House, more than 200 people, get together and vote for a House Majority Leader.

The point is that Cantor is a fallen king. Why would anyone take orders from a fallen king? The reason you took orders from him before no longer exists.

[AmericanNation]

If you are Paul Ryan, do you continue on current track to ways and means chair, or do you take this opportunity to become Speaker? (assuming Boehner isn't long for the job)

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan has already reiterated he's not interested in elected leadership. Either W&M or much less likely, a POTUS run.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

If you are Paul Ryan, do you continue on current track to ways and means chair, or do you take this opportunity to become Speaker? (assuming Boehner isn't long for the job)

i think w&m chair and then a presidential bid.

[AmericanNation]

Ryan has already reiterated he's not interested in elected leadership. Either W&M or much less likely, a POTUS run.

Yes, but I have had the impression that when he said "I'm not interested in leadership" it was because he had a good relationship with Boehner AND Cantor (and no interrest in whip).  So, I think it's pretty reasonable to consider the possibility that things have changed. 

[RogueBeaver]

Costa has already reconfirmed Ryan's lack of interest. Ryan said a few months ago that if he was interested in elected leadership he'd have joined long ago. That was about the Speakership. By all accounts W&M is his dream job, but it raises the question of what next once he's termed out of that too.

[AmericanNation]

Yea, I found an article where he explains how he can spend 4 days in DC and 3 in Janesville in a policy position (ways and means), but a leadership position (speaker) requires you to spend weekends flying around the country politicking and fundraising.  He also explains how he accepted VP nomination because it would mean more time with his family than a policy position in the house.  Talk around here is he won't seek the position  -- only chance would be if the caucus "drafted" him.     

[Sol]

Will Brat have a democratic challenger?

Yes, it's actually another professor from the college Brat teaches at. But this is a R+10 district, with Romney winning 57% of the 2012 vote and Cantor winning 58% of the 2012 vote, so even though Brat is a tea partier, this is definitely a Likely R if not Safe R race.

Actually, Northam won VA-07 by a slim margin. It's more Democratic than McIntyre's district, so I'd imagine Democrats have a chance in this district. A very, very faint chance, but nevertheless a chance.

This isn't a traditionally Blue Dog-ish district like NC-07 though. It's basically ultra-conservative Richmond/DC suburbs plus some rural areas. Not very elastic.

[King]

There's also no better way to make the public hate you than become Speaker of the House. Ryan 's only in an R+3 district, he could easily get bounced with all the Democrats and Teabaggers in his district riled up to hate him.

[Badger]

Will Brat have a democratic challenger?

Yes, it's actually another professor from the college Brat teaches at. But this is a R+10 district, with Romney winning 57% of the 2012 vote and Cantor winning 58% of the 2012 vote, so even though Brat is a tea partier, this is definitely a Likely R if not Safe R race.

Actually, Northam won VA-07 by a slim margin. It's more Democratic than McIntyre's district, so I'd imagine Democrats have a chance in this district. A very, very faint chance, but nevertheless a chance.

This isn't a traditionally Blue Dog-ish district like NC-07 though. It's basically ultra-conservative Richmond/DC suburbs plus some rural areas. Not very elastic.

Not to mention it's almost always a mistake to conflate state office race results with expected outcomes for federal office.

[Badger]

I'm not sure why so many liberals and Democrats on the Forum are happy over this result. Yes, Cantor was a thorn in the side of any attempts at bipartisanship, even by Boehner, but whoever takes his role can be assured from this election result to be worse.

Any chance of even partial immigration reform has been pushed back at least several years.

On every other issue under the sun, any member of the GOP caucus even dreaming about a bipartisan move towards the sensible center will, more than ever, now fear of being "Cantored" by the far right. (And in a couple weeks, I fear, the Senate GOP caucus will live in terror of being "Cochraned").

Dems can't even be happy over a potential race for this district. Brat may be pretty extreme, but it's a +10 R district. The GOP is going to keep this hands down. At worst we MIGHT have to put a BIT of $ in to ensure a win, and probably only if Brat pulls some Akin-like comments.

[AmericanNation]

I'm not sure why so many liberals and Democrats on the Forum are happy over this result. Yes, Cantor was a thorn in the side of any attempts at bipartisanship, even by Boehner, but whoever takes his role can be assured from this election result to be worse.

Any chance of even partial immigration reform has been pushed back at least several years.

On every other issue under the sun, any member of the GOP caucus even dreaming about a bipartisan move towards the sensible center will, more than ever, now fear of being "Cantored" by the far right. (And in a couple weeks, I fear, the Senate GOP caucus will live in terror of being "Cochraned").

Dems can't even be happy over a potential race for this district. Brat may be pretty extreme, but it's a +10 R district. The GOP is going to keep this hands down. At worst we MIGHT have to put a BIT of $ in to ensure a win, and probably only if Brat pulls some Akin-like comments.

Democrats don't want immigration reform (unless it's immediate full citizenship for every illegal immigrant)
Republicans want immigration reform.
Democrats can be happy because now Republicans are unlikely to force them to vote against reform again and they can keep the issue benefiting them.

[Never]

I'm not sure why so many liberals and Democrats on the Forum are happy over this result. Yes, Cantor was a thorn in the side of any attempts at bipartisanship, even by Boehner, but whoever takes his role can be assured from this election result to be worse.

Any chance of even partial immigration reform has been pushed back at least several years.

On every other issue under the sun, any member of the GOP caucus even dreaming about a bipartisan move towards the sensible center will, more than ever, now fear of being "Cantored" by the far right. (And in a couple weeks, I fear, the Senate GOP caucus will live in terror of being "Cochraned").

Dems can't even be happy over a potential race for this district. Brat may be pretty extreme, but it's a +10 R district. The GOP is going to keep this hands down. At worst we MIGHT have to put a BIT of $ in to ensure a win, and probably only if Brat pulls some Akin-like comments.

Democrats don't want immigration reform (unless it's immediate full citizenship for every illegal immigrant)
Republicans want immigration reform.
Democrats can be happy because now Republicans are unlikely to force them to vote against reform again and they can keep the issue benefiting them.

^ That sounds about right. I suppose one could say that both parties seem to want immigration reform entirely on their own terms.

[Badger]

I'm not sure why so many liberals and Democrats on the Forum are happy over this result. Yes, Cantor was a thorn in the side of any attempts at bipartisanship, even by Boehner, but whoever takes his role can be assured from this election result to be worse.

Any chance of even partial immigration reform has been pushed back at least several years.

On every other issue under the sun, any member of the GOP caucus even dreaming about a bipartisan move towards the sensible center will, more than ever, now fear of being "Cantored" by the far right. (And in a couple weeks, I fear, the Senate GOP caucus will live in terror of being "Cochraned").

Dems can't even be happy over a potential race for this district. Brat may be pretty extreme, but it's a +10 R district. The GOP is going to keep this hands down. At worst we MIGHT have to put a BIT of $ in to ensure a win, and probably only if Brat pulls some Akin-like comments.

Democrats don't want immigration reform (unless it's immediate full citizenship for every illegal immigrant)
Republicans want immigration reform.
Democrats can be happy because now Republicans are unlikely to force them to vote against reform again and they can keep the issue benefiting them.

^ That sounds about right. I suppose one could say that both parties seem to want immigration reform entirely on their own terms.

The above "contributions" validate my post.

In the long run, sensible Republicans should also be disheartened; supporting reasonable immigration reform is one of the few ways to fight the demographic wave killing us in national elections. If we could even come close to carrying the same share of Hispanic and Asians voters W did, the future would be a lot brighter.

[muon2]

WaPo is reporting that Cantor will announce plans to step down as majority leader by the end of July.