Kerry +5 in Virginia (Mason-Dixon)

[© tweed]

Just Kidding

[zachman]

If you're going to pull a trick on us pick a state like Nebraska or Idaho. Virginia could actually be very close. I'd bet Bush will get only 49% there with Kerry at 47.5%.

[Nation]

Man, way to get my hopes up.

[Kodratos]

I'd bet Bush will get only 49% there with Kerry at 47.5%.

Time to put on the straight jacket and go with the nice men to the hospital

[Kodratos]

Just Kidding

Just the sort of trick I would expect from a person who supports a neutral zone trapping evil incarnate hockey team...

Whats your team? I'm a Wild fan personally( I know the name sucks, but I refused to follow the NorthStars down to Texas)

[opebo]

If you're going to pull a trick on us pick a state like Nebraska or Idaho. Virginia could actually be very close. I'd bet Bush will get only 49% there with Kerry at 47.5%.

Nah, Bush will easily break 51% in VA.

[agcatter]

53 - 45 - 2.  Should be about the same spread as last time.  Liberal govt workers in suburban DC keep it within 8 statewide.

[opebo]

53 - 45 - 2.  Should be about the same spread as last time.  Liberal govt workers in suburban DC keep it within 8 statewide.

Agreed.  51% was my worst case scenario for Bush in VA.

[agcatter]

Yes.  No lower than 51 even if Kerry polls well enough to actually win the election.

[Rococo4]

53 - 45 - 2.  Should be about the same spread as last time.  Liberal govt workers in suburban DC keep it within 8 statewide.

That seems about dead on right now.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just Kidding

I guessed that...
But if he was leading in VA it wouldn't suprise me a lot.

[© tweed]

Just Kidding

Just the sort of trick I would expect from a person who supports a neutral zone trapping evil incarnate hockey team...

Blah blah...we ruined hockey.  I hear it from the rangers fans eery day.

[muon2]

Yes.  No lower than 51 even if Kerry polls well enough to actually win the election.

I agree, Bush had 52% in 2000 and now sits as an incumbent. It will take dramatic events to move enough supporters away to get a win for Kerry.

[WalterMitty]

dear lord.  you nearly gave me a heart attack.

[ShapeShifter]

Thanks.

[Gustaf]

I think VA is one of the states that's trending Dem, but on the other hand one of the states that Kerry would be VERY weak in. So, I see it staying pretty mich the same, unless Kerry picks Edwards or Warner, in which case it'll be a lot closer than 2000. But, even without a Southern VP Kerry should be able to get at least a point or so from Gore's result.

[classical liberal]

Bush got 52.5% because he won the DC suburbs.  He won't do that again.  That knocks him down to 49.5%.  Bush won coal country, he probably won't this time, that knocks him down to 48.5%.  Gore won 44.5 and Nader won 2.  Nader may get .5 and the rest will probably go to Kerry along with all of Gore's support, bringing his total to 46%.  Plus 2.5% from the DC suburbs plus 1% from coal country gives Kerry 49.5%.  Thats 49.5-48.5-.5-.5  Dem-GOP-Nader-Lib.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's possible that neither Kerry or Bush clears 50% in VA... it'll be interesting how many new voters the Warner machine can come up with in the South of the state... and how many the GOP can crank out further north (Shenadoah Valley for example).

[classical liberal]

I think that the extra turnout from Warner's machine will pretty much cancel out the turnout increase from the Shenandoah.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think that the extra turnout from Warner's machine will pretty much cancel out the turnout increase from the Shenandoah.

I hope so but I do not know so.
It is possible that people who died in the 1860's (ie: Civil War) will vote for the GOP... even Lee's troops...

[classical liberal]

Leesburg will go to the Dems.