The Downfall of David Dewhurst

[TX Conservative Dem]

With the likelihood of embattled 3-term incumbent Texas Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst (R) going down in flames on Tuesday night to Tea Party favorite State Senator Dan Patrick (R-Houston). This would result in back to back statewide election losses, leaving Dewhurst at 4-2 . It appears that Dewhurst was never really liked by majority of Texans; despite several advantages: wealthy mega-millionaire from his days in the Oil & Gas industry, military service in the U.S. Air Force, spending several years in the Central Intelligence Agency, ranch owner inducted into the Texas Rodeo Cowboy Hall of Fame.

Having first been elected Commissioner of the General Land Office in 1998 under the coattails of then Governor George W. Bush (R): first surviving a nasty GOP primary and general election campaign and fast forward 4 years later, winning an ugly dogfight for Lieutenant Governor against former State Comptroller John Sharp (D): 52%-46% and easily won reelection in 2006 and 2010 against weak competition as the state's 2nd most powerful statewide officeholder, a job he's held for more than a decade since January 21, 2003.

But to many people across the Lone Star State, Dewhurst has remained an enigma--and never more so than now. "What makes the man tick is a mystery," said Cal Jillson, professor of Political Science at Southern Methodist University. "And that doesn't help him as a politician. Voters want to feel that they know who the guy is, what his values are, what his commitments are. Dewhurst has never been good at communicating that."

Sure, Dewhurst gets high marks for his grasp of complex issues and feel for public policy, but few people seem sure what lies behind his polite formality. Maybe that's why the Texas GOP has never fully embraced him. In the late '90s, party members fretted that he was a right-winger, not the mainstream "George W. Bush Republican" he claimed to be. Now that the GOP has surged further to the right, he's mistrusted for the opposite reasons.

[CountyTy90]

As an independent, I probably would have voted for Dewhurst the first time around, however, I would love to see Leticia Van de Putte win in November.

Patrick is bat sh**t crazy and I'm surprised he's gone this far in the race. But then again I'm not surprised. I'm almost positive he'll win tonight and most likely in November, but when he starts pushing through the Legislature what he's promising... Republicans are gonna be like "what the f%#$ have we done?!?!"

What are Van de Putte's chances?

Automatically she gets Dallas, Bexar, Travis, El Paso, Hidalgo, and Webb counties... does she get Harris narrowly?

[windjammer]

Good riddance, there is nothing worse than the pointless REP establishment/fake RINOs.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Van de Putte might get Harris County and I say "MIGHT" since that is Patrick's home turf and due to his Tea Party strength, he'll win the general election by double digits.

Tarrant County likely going to Patrick.

Plus I can see Patrick's TV Ads against Van de Putte getting very UGLY and vicious: using illegal immigrants to slam Van de Putte by using coded words to swing voters such as Independent voters, etc.,

[CountyTy90]

Van de Putte might get Harris County and I say "MIGHT" since that is Patrick's home turf and due to his Tea Party strength, he'll win the general election by double digits.

Hold on... you think he'll win by double digits?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Due to the fact Davis will drag down the entire Texas Democratic Party down the gutter in November, I do feel Patrick wins by double digits (around 10-12 points).

Haven't seen any TV Ads from Van de Putte at all.

[CountyTy90]

You don't think this is a Clayton Williams/Ann Richards race where Van de Putte narrowly wins because of Patrick's mouth?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Good riddance, there is nothing worse than the pointless REP establishment/fake RINOs.

RINOINOs?

[TX Conservative Dem]

KTRK-TV Ch. 13 news reporter Ted Oberg asked Patrick if he was running a negative campaign; Patrick denies running a nasty campaign against Dewhurst, he also denies being anti Immigrant and anti Latino.

Patrick also bragged about punking San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro (D) at the Univision debate over illegal immigration.

[Badger]

So I take it you're voting for Patrick in November, TCD?

[TX Conservative Dem]

My wife, Alicia is trying to convince me to vote for Van de Putte. I've told her I'll have to see how the debates turn out before I make a decision.

Dewhurst should have NEVER ran for reelection this year (after his choke to Cruz in 2012 US Senate race).

[Badger]

Dewhurst should have NEVER ran for reelection this year (after his choke to Cruz in 2012 US Senate race).

I assume that's why you voted against him in the primary?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Texas Monthly's Paul Burka thinks Patrick will be gunning for the Texas Governor's Mansion in 2018.

[Kushahontas]

You don't think this is a Clayton Williams/Ann Richards race where Van de Putte narrowly wins because of Patrick's mouth?

Patrick can make a Williams/Akin-esque gaffe and still be pretty favored.

[jimrtex]

Texas Monthly's Paul Burka thinks Patrick will be gunning for the Texas Governor's Mansion in 2018.

Texas Monthly was saying that Patrick was going to run for governor in 2010.

[Indy Texas]

Texas Monthly's Paul Burka thinks Patrick will be gunning for the Texas Governor's Mansion in 2018.

Texas Monthly was saying that Patrick was going to run for governor in 2010.

I put limited stock in what Paul Burka writes these days. He's not as in tune with the facts on the ground now that he's older and in a more managerial role at TM. The addition of Erica Greider to his blog suggests she's probably going to be his near-term successor, which I think is a great choice.

[badgate]

Erica Grieder always comes off as reflexively contrarian to me.

PS - I had to google the spelling of her surname; the I comes before the E.

[TX Conservative Dem]

PPP polling had the Van de Putte and Patrick matchup looking like this:

Patrick-51%
Van de Putte-35%

Anglos:
Patrick-64%
Van de Putte-26%
Undecided-10%

African Americans
Van de Putte-72%
Patrick-13%
Undecided-15%

Latinos
Van de Putte-41%
Patrick-35%
Undecided-24%

Others:
Van de Putte-44%
Patrick-30%
Undecided-26%

[MATTROSE94]

Texas Monthly's Paul Burka thinks Patrick will be gunning for the Texas Governor's Mansion in 2018.

I don't think that Dan Patrick will get elected as Texas Governor anytime soon, as Greg Abbott could potentially remain in office until the 2020s or 2030s.

[moderatevoter]

I'm in agreement with MattRose94 here. I thought Abbott would have this for a while, followed by George P. Bush. I never thought Patrick would stick around that long.