R.I.P. social conservatism: Why it’s dying — and the coming realignment

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

http://www.salon.com/2014/05/17/r_i_p_social_conservatism_why_its_dying_%E2%80%94_and_the_coming_realignment/

Interesting perspective, though I think the author exaggerates when he says social conservatism is on its way out.  Gay marriage isn't going to be an issue when it's legalized in all 50 states, and abortion will steadily become less of an issue as more women gain access to birth control and unwanted/teen pregnancies decline, but no one can seriously predict what the battlefield will look like a generation from now.  As one person in the comment section said, for all we know the gay marriage supporters will become the social conservatives as new weird liberal ideas come out in 2060.

There is also, of course, the fact that relics of the past are visible no matter what era.  They'll be less pronounced and easier to conceal (such as segregation), but there will always be evidence that at one time in our history, things were very, very different.

[Cassius]

I'm sorry, but what a cock and bull story that article tells us. I'm not in the mood to critique it now, but that may be one of the worst opinion pieces that I have ever read in my entire life.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I see no reason to think abortion will decline as an issue for social conservatives.  Furthermore, while same-sex marriage, pornography, and intoxicants are likely to decline as issues I think social issues such as prostitution, gambling, and more could easily take their place.  The specific issues that social conservatives fight on will change, but I see nothing to indicate that the mindset that leads to their being a political fight on social issues is changing. (I mention gambling because it is one of those issues that historically waxed and waned in importance, and I think society is at a point where we could start to see yet another backlash against legalized gambling.)

[AggregateDemand]

http://www.salon.com/2014/05/17/r_i_p_social_conservatism_why_its_dying_%E2%80%94_and_the_coming_realignment/

Social conservatism, as a cultural practice, has been dying for a long time. Social conservatism, as a political talking-point, will endure for as long as liberals and conservatives think it's amusing.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I see no reason to think abortion will decline as an issue for social conservatives.  Furthermore, while same-sex marriage, pornography, and intoxicants are likely to decline as issues I think social issues such as prostitution, gambling, and more could easily take their place.  The specific issues that social conservatives fight on will change, but I see nothing to indicate that the mindset that leads to their being a political fight on social issues is changing. (I mention gambling because it is one of those issues that historically waxed and waned in importance, and I think society is at a point where we could start to see yet another backlash against legalized gambling.)

I think abortion is going to decline in importance for both sides, simply because fewer women will need abortions.  Whether Roe will still be law in the next fifty years, I can't say, but social conservatives will lose their momentum on this issue as abortion becomes less and less of a factor.  Even if the birth control mandates are repealed, the pill is going to become more accessible, though that will take much longer absent those mandates.

There's also likely going to be a form of male birth control in the near future.  That needs to be accounted for, as well.

[Blue3]

And with more effective birth control, people would become more anti-abortion.

[Frodo]

I think this is the link you probably should have put up instead of that Salon article.
---------------------------------------------------

This may well turn out to be the case outside the South, but if Nate Cohn is correct about younger southern whites, Dixie will stand out as an exception.

[H. Ross Peron]

Lind also wrote a more substantial version of this article, elaborating on his vision of a future America divided between "liberaltarians" and "populiberals": http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/journal/issue-4/the-coming-realignment

[windjammer]

Conservatism will never die.
Social progressivism and social conservatism are always evolving.

However, what I believe is that the democratic party will be more economically populist in the future (so a bit less focused on social issues), while the republican party will moderate itself on social issues (immigration,...)

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't think social conservatism is dying. I do think, though, that the definition or perception of a social conservative will change dramatically as olds die off. I think it is actually natural that the young people now will be the more "socially conservative" group in 40+ years, but who knows.

[Deus Naturae]

It's literally impossible for social conservatism to die. As others have said, it just changes form.

Also, I think Starwatcher raises a good point. OP, what makes you think that fewer women needing abortions will make people less anti-abortion?

[DC Al Fine]

I see no reason to think abortion will decline as an issue for social conservatives.  Furthermore, while same-sex marriage, pornography, and intoxicants are likely to decline as issues I think social issues such as prostitution, gambling, and more could easily take their place.  The specific issues that social conservatives fight on will change, but I see nothing to indicate that the mindset that leads to their being a political fight on social issues is changing. (I mention gambling because it is one of those issues that historically waxed and waned in importance, and I think society is at a point where we could start to see yet another backlash against legalized gambling.)

I think abortion is going to decline in importance for both sides, simply because fewer women will need abortions.  Whether Roe will still be law in the next fifty years, I can't say, but social conservatives will lose their momentum on this issue as abortion becomes less and less of a factor.  Even if the birth control mandates are repealed, the pill is going to become more accessible, though that will take much longer absent those mandates.

As Aruca said, the teen pregnancy rate has already plummeted without a corresponding decrease in abortion.

Also, I think you are misunderstanding how the activists on both side view the abortion debate. The pro-choice activists view abortion restrictions as putting women back in the kitchen. The pro life activists view legal abortion as genocide. Neither of these views will be mitigated by fewer women having unplanned pregnancies. On top of that, the pro-life view hasn't declined like other socially conservative views, so there won't be a structural decline in abortion's importance like there has been in gay marriage.

[DC Al Fine]

Conservatism will never die.
Social progressivism and social conservatism are always evolving.

This is the key point. No one was talking about gay marriage when divorce was deregulated. Who knows what social issue will appall today's social liberals in 2040.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

It's literally impossible for social conservatism to die. As others have said, it just changes form.

Also, I think Starwatcher raises a good point. OP, what makes you think that fewer women needing abortions will make people less anti-abortion?

I see no reason to think abortion will decline as an issue for social conservatives.  Furthermore, while same-sex marriage, pornography, and intoxicants are likely to decline as issues I think social issues such as prostitution, gambling, and more could easily take their place.  The specific issues that social conservatives fight on will change, but I see nothing to indicate that the mindset that leads to their being a political fight on social issues is changing. (I mention gambling because it is one of those issues that historically waxed and waned in importance, and I think society is at a point where we could start to see yet another backlash against legalized gambling.)

I think abortion is going to decline in importance for both sides, simply because fewer women will need abortions.  Whether Roe will still be law in the next fifty years, I can't say, but social conservatives will lose their momentum on this issue as abortion becomes less and less of a factor.  Even if the birth control mandates are repealed, the pill is going to become more accessible, though that will take much longer absent those mandates.

As Aruca said, the teen pregnancy rate has already plummeted without a corresponding decrease in abortion.

Also, I think you are misunderstanding how the activists on both side view the abortion debate. The pro-choice activists view abortion restrictions as putting women back in the kitchen. The pro life activists view legal abortion as genocide. Neither of these views will be mitigated by fewer women having unplanned pregnancies. On top of that, the pro-life view hasn't declined like other socially conservative views, so there won't be a structural decline in abortion's importance like there has been in gay marriage.

Actually, the abortion rate has decreased.  I think you both are missing the point, however.  The moral arguments for and against abortion will not change, but the less abortions that take place, and the less women that are affected by it, the less significant it will become in political discourse.  A common anti-abortion talking point is, "There are X amount of abortions performed each year, X performed each month, X performed each day," etc., etc.  If current trends hold up, abortion will become so rare that not even hardline social conservatives will see much point in banning it.  There will always be a pro-choice camp.  There will always be an anti-abortion camp.  But, the debate will become far less amplified as time goes on.

[DC Al Fine]

It's literally impossible for social conservatism to die. As others have said, it just changes form.

Also, I think Starwatcher raises a good point. OP, what makes you think that fewer women needing abortions will make people less anti-abortion?

I see no reason to think abortion will decline as an issue for social conservatives.  Furthermore, while same-sex marriage, pornography, and intoxicants are likely to decline as issues I think social issues such as prostitution, gambling, and more could easily take their place.  The specific issues that social conservatives fight on will change, but I see nothing to indicate that the mindset that leads to their being a political fight on social issues is changing. (I mention gambling because it is one of those issues that historically waxed and waned in importance, and I think society is at a point where we could start to see yet another backlash against legalized gambling.)

I think abortion is going to decline in importance for both sides, simply because fewer women will need abortions.  Whether Roe will still be law in the next fifty years, I can't say, but social conservatives will lose their momentum on this issue as abortion becomes less and less of a factor.  Even if the birth control mandates are repealed, the pill is going to become more accessible, though that will take much longer absent those mandates.

As Aruca said, the teen pregnancy rate has already plummeted without a corresponding decrease in abortion.

Also, I think you are misunderstanding how the activists on both side view the abortion debate. The pro-choice activists view abortion restrictions as putting women back in the kitchen. The pro life activists view legal abortion as genocide. Neither of these views will be mitigated by fewer women having unplanned pregnancies. On top of that, the pro-life view hasn't declined like other socially conservative views, so there won't be a structural decline in abortion's importance like there has been in gay marriage.

Actually, the abortion rate has decreased.

Whoops made a typo. I meant that teen pregnancy has decreased without a corresponding decrease in abortion's importance as an issue

The number of abortions performed per year peaked at about 1.4 million in 1990 and was as low as 765k in 2010. So if current trends continue with abortions halving every 20-25 years, at what point is this less amplified debate start happening?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Actually, the abortion rate has decreased.  I think you both are missing the point, however.  The moral arguments for and against abortion will not change, but the less abortions that take place, and the less women that are affected by it, the less significant it will become in political discourse.  A common anti-abortion talking point is, "There are X amount of abortions performed each year, X performed each month, X performed each day," etc., etc.  If current trends hold up, abortion will become so rare that not even hardline social conservatives will see much point in banning it.  There will always be a pro-choice camp.  There will always be an anti-abortion camp.  But, the debate will become far less amplified as time goes on.

Even if the trend over the last twenty years continues, there will still be over half a million abortions being done each year in 2050. Frankly, I'm skeptical that the trend would continue unchanged, but even if it did, half a million a year is more than enough to energize the debate.  I certainly have not seen any slackening of the issue over the last twenty years.  Indeed, if anything, it's gotten more shrill.

The number of abortions performed per year peaked at about 1.4 million in 1990 and was as low as 765k in 2010. So if current trends continue with abortions halving every 20-25 years, at what point is this less amplified debate start happening?

The CDC numbers for 1990 and 2010 aren't strictly comparable since several states—including California—no longer report numbers of abortions and thus aren't included in the CDC totals for 2010.  The decline over those twenty years was more like 30% than 50%.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

In fairness, there's no reason to suppose the rate of decline won't accelerate, especially with the heavily anticipated release of new contraceptives.  More people are getting health coverage now, as well.  My prediction for the next generation could be way off, but I don't think that abortion is destined to forever be an issue the way that, say, Social Security is.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Probably true for the most part.  The legalization of gay marriage and pot is inevitable at this point unless we can re-frame the issue and fight back hard enough.  But honestly, it's not a "coming" realignment.  The realignment happened in the early 90s when Clinton was elected.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Prediction: Abortion will probably be banned, or at least laws around it tightened, after we can perfect artificial wombs and after contraceptive use becomes more and more universal.

[Blue3]

Prediction: Abortion will probably be banned, or at least laws around it tightened, after we can perfect artificial wombs and after contraceptive use becomes more and more universal.

Basically this.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In fairness, there's no reason to suppose the rate of decline won't accelerate, especially with the heavily anticipated release of new contraceptives.  More people are getting health coverage now, as well.  My prediction for the next generation could be way off, but I don't think that abortion is destined to forever be an issue the way that, say, Social Security is.

Contraceptives aren't perfect and some people don't want to mess with their hormones.  Indeed, I'm dubious of the desirability of mucking with them before you've finished growing up, yet it is teenagers who are most in need of contraceptives.

[Likely Voter]

Social Conservatism is not dead but it certainly is no longer smart strategy to use social conservative positions as wedge issues in a national campaign, but they still live on in GOP primary races.

[Donerail]

Conservatism will never die.
Social progressivism and social conservatism are always evolving.

This is the key point. No one was talking about gay marriage when divorce was deregulated. Who knows what social issue will appall today's social liberals in 2040.

If this is all based on the idea that Millennials are near-universally liberal on social issues, I'd guess it'll be something about trigger warnings and trans issues.

[Indy Texas]

More reliable contraception and improvements in prevention and treatment of what we would consider severe physical and mental disabilities will likely tip the scales in favor of the pro-lifers in the abortion debate.

The logic will be that if a woman can more or less fully control when she becomes pregnant, if virtually all severe fetal defects can be fixed and if risks to the mother during labor continue to decline, then any "legitimate" reason a woman would have for wanting an abortion no longer exists.

I consider myself pro-choice, but if the sole rallying cry in favor of limiting abortion restrictions is a bunch of women who willfully didn't use birth control in consensual sex saying, "Well I just don't feel like having a kid right now," I would say that is an incredibly frivolous reason for wanting an abortion and it's not a reason that I am willing to spend political capital on that could be better used toward other policy objectives.

[H. Ross Peron]

Conservatism will never die.
Social progressivism and social conservatism are always evolving.

This is the key point. No one was talking about gay marriage when divorce was deregulated. Who knows what social issue will appall today's social liberals in 2040.

If this is all based on the idea that Millennials are near-universally liberal on social issues, I'd guess it'll be something about trigger warnings and trans issues.

It'll be transhumanism I suspect.